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Waymo in Portland

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Re: Waymo in Portland

#591
post #307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bus Rapid Transit is another option that could be amazing (while being much cheaper to implement), but it falls short for the same reason as trains: they require dedicated infrastructure that complicates driving, and complicating driving is political suicide.

BRT is mostly "you get what you pay for" - cheaper at a cost of lower capacity. Given relatively low density of US cities - that might be the right tool tho.

One thing you have to be careful about with things like this is induced demand. In Dublin in the early 90s, there was a debate about what to do with the right of way of an old commuter rail line, which had been closed in the 60s when closing rail lines was fashionable. Irish Rail wanted to reinstate the commuter rail line, Dublin Bus wanted to build a BRT system. In the early noughties, the transport authority split the difference and put in a tram system (green line Luas).

A BRT system would have had a capacity of, very optimistically, 6,000 people per hour per direction (a 100 person bus arriving every minute), but in practice probably less (that is difficult to maintain without delays). At the time, there was some doubt that even this capacity was required. The original tram setup also had a capacity of about 6,000 people per hour. Within years, the trams were full to overcrowding, and the line was expanded to 10,000 people per hour. Now it's at capacity again, with some of the longest trams in the world arriving every three minutes at peak. The only realistic option to further increase capacity is to turn it into a metro line (which, fortunately, was in principle planned for from the start, and _is_ possible, albeit with some disruption).

If they'd gone with a BRT, they'd now be looking at ripping up the whole thing and having nothing for years while they laid tracks.

Re: Waymo in Portland

#592

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This only works if the bus is popular. How often do buses in Portland have more than 5 people on them?

How often do cars have more than 5 people in them?

Per [1], a typical Portland public bus causes about 730 times more road wear than a full size pickup truck (which is about the worst case for road wear from a personal vehicle). How many buses have more than 700 people riding in them?

(I am of course ignoring the scaling for fuel, maintenance, pollution, and traffic costs of personal vehicles; but my point is that most people severely underestimate just how awful the economic case for an underused full size bus is. Now, minibuses and microbuses are a different story; but US public transit systems don't use them.)

[1] https://www.kgw.com/article/news/verify/yes-bus-more-road-da...

Re: Waymo in Portland

#593

I just wish the US would build trains. All I want.

Are trains really less expensive and more efficient than busses? One additional stop to Vancouver WA on the Max train is 22 million a year in operating cost. https://www.columbian.com/news/2024/dec/11/it-seems-so-outra... You can drive a lot of busses for 22 million a year. I use the train a lot in Portland and I would not endorse something so expensive.

Yes, trains are much more efficient than busses.

Re: Waymo in Portland

#594
post #572

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know many if any YIMBYs who are opposed to density. I know people who are opposed to density being seen as only apartments and condos.

What do you think density means? A mixed use neighborhood of apartments, condos, retail, and office is density. The only other categories are heavy manufacturing (which is harder to argue for) and single family homes, which are not dense by definition.

5,000 units of apartments is not mixed use so unless there is more to the story you're leaving out, this is not mixed use.

Re: Waymo in Portland

#595

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is all FUD and extremely unlikely if not improbable to run into someone violent. If you’re that afraid of public transit and people in general, no amount of “rounding people up against their will” would change your mind.

It really is not. I use public transit heavily. The people on it fucking suck. No one helps when someone is being harassed for fear of violence. The US needs to enforce basic decorum on public transit if it wants mass buy in.

Great we’ll start with rounding you up first who cares about your opinion and rights.

Re: Waymo in Portland

#596

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is all FUD and extremely unlikely if not improbable to run into someone violent. If you’re that afraid of public transit and people in general, no amount of “rounding people up against their will” would change your mind.

FUD? Are you claiming these did not happen?

No I’m claiming that violent people have a tendency to support violence as the only rational option. While turning around and defunding healthcare and advocating more prisons be built. Rather than diagnosing the actual problems. Violence wont stop mental illness.

The posters advocating for it and stating Daniel Penny should’ve encourage copy-cats are violent and sick people.

Re: Waymo in Portland

#597

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're describing places that have few people and hence few car trips. Most car trips, even in the US, take place in densely populated areas. The point of public transit isn't to handle 100% of all trips. It's to handle the most common trips in a more efficient and scalable way.

Saying most car trips take place in densely populated areas in the US is a lie

That depends how you define "densely populated", but certainly most car trips are near where people live and work, not in wilderness camping areas you are describing.

Re: Waymo in Portland

#598
post #523
post #495

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How many private vehicles do you need to provide mass transit away from a mass event such as a stadium, or a concert?

See above comment, why does the number of vehicles matter? I've left stadium events via taxi and ride-share, often there is a queueing area where cars pull up, you get in and leave. It's like a train that takes you home.

A really sloppy, inefficient train.

Re: Waymo in Portland

#599
post #465

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In FY25, according to their budget [1], TriMet - the Portland public transit authority - spent $19M on bus services. In that same budget, PDOT spent $56M on streets, signs and streetlights, before you even consider the $242M spent on "asset management" - which appears to generally be capital improvements; i.e., rebuilding roads [2, page 509]. I don't care what fraction of that wear and tear is due to buses, it's not…

Your first link is for the bus budget in Portland, Maine. The system cost for busses in Portland, Oregon in 2025 was $453 million.[1] 1. https://trimet.org/about/pdf/trimetridership.pdf

Oh... that's embarrassing. Honest mistake, I swear.

Re: Waymo in Portland

#600
post #570

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you say you support density but that support withers away at the slightest hint of nostalgia or trade off, or because some old ladies walk in the dead mall sometimes (that was the cited reason), then you don’t really support density. NIMBYs are usually not against new stuff in their backyard, they really just don’t want to lose the historic parking structures and culturally relevant SFHs already there. Perhaps you…

Literally nowhere did you mention that they said their support for density withered. You only said they mourned the loss of a mall they liked. Those are not conflicting things. Mourning something does not imply disliking the thing that replaced it.

In context, when they said, “that mall is rad, I hope they block it there’s a campaign to stop the demolition” made it pretty close to unambiguous.

Why are people assuming that the kitchen coworkers are reasonable and that I am somehow making assumptions? I was there, I heard the conversation, HN replies did not. Portlanders are notorious for this sort of tradeoff-ignoring woo woo bullshit anyway, frankly it isn’t an extraordinary claim.

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