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F-35 is built for the wrong war

warontherocks.com

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Re: F-35 is built for the wrong war

#591

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is asinine, what do you think happens to those institutions when incompetence is what gets rewarded. The real threat to the US military is not the lack of weapons, or that the F35 is not as good or as cheap as it could have been, it's because it is a lumbering bureaucracy full of people who couldn't get better jobs elsewhere.

> it's because it is a lumbering bureaucracy full of people who couldn't get better jobs elsewhere. I don’t think that they exploit the military industrial complex for personal job security and fortune makes it likely that they’re incompetent. In fact, as a society we seem to praise those who are exceedingly successful at such exploitation, and even elect them to the highest levels of government and hang onto every w…

you can just say "capitalism did this" -- no need to pussyfoot around it mate

most of HN will downvote you for it

Re: F-35 is built for the wrong war

#592
post #20

Somewhat ridiculous piece. Ukraine, 4 years after, still operates a significant number of jets it entered the war with. This is despite hundreds of attempts to eliminate them on the ground with airstrikes, drones, cruise and ballistic missiles. And naturally F-35s on that theatre would have been a game changer making mass strikes on Moscow possible. For all the dysfunctions of American military industrial complex it…

ukraine has planes because it can't fly them except in limited circumstances with limited objectives.

Re: F-35 is built for the wrong war

#593

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You can see that in that it's very popular for export It's very popular for export since the US has been forcing their allies to buy them over any alternatives, this was shown in the WikiLeaks cables.

Nothing else is remotely as capable in the modern threat environment that most countries can actually buy. That's the cold truth. They can't buy anything else that compares and the best isn't for sale.

Well if you don't let them buy it then what's the point in developing for that? Just develop for your own militay or some poorer countries the US can't be bothered to keep as vassals.

Re: F-35 is built for the wrong war

#594
post #217

It concerns me how casual the article and some of the comments here discuss an actual war against China, as if that were a reasonable scenario. Of course I understand wanting to be prepared even for grim scenarios such as these. Military strategists should of course continually be refining such plans. But casual discussions like this, without even so much as a disclaimer about it being a hypothetical and extremely un…

> an actual war against China, as if that were a reasonable scenario. Most modern military planning considers it a foregone conclusion. Whether that's accurate or not is arguable, but approaching discussions of military spending from a perspective grounded in current planning is certainly reasonable.

So .. ICBM nuclear exchange? Or are we suddenly expecting a large conventional war between nuclear powers in which both sides decide not to bother with them?

Re: F-35 is built for the wrong war

#595
post #442

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TBF a proxy of one of the nuclear superpowers (ie Ukraine using US arms) is quite different from a run of the mill non-nuclear country retaliating against an invasion using conventional arms manufactured at home. The former invites MAD while the latter is predictable and boring. Seeing as they are the substantially larger aggressor presumably they can pull out of this war of attrition whenever they feel like it.

you can look into game theory and crisis bargaining to see when and when not nukes make sense. theyre very expensive to use, so the benefits of war have to be extraordinary to match

game theory assumes rational actors

Re: F-35 is built for the wrong war

#596
post #298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Russian nuclear doctrine would have treated that as an existential threat. They claimed that with basically every little sprinkle of new aid for like two years, until everyone realized it was a bluff. Putin is many things, but actively suicidal looks like a no.

I suspect Israel and Russia are looking at each other with "You first!" so that they can start nuking and blame the other for starting it.

Israel is not under existential threat even if there are occasional rockets hitting Ashkelon or downtown Tel Aviv

The rest of the Arab world is mostly placated by alliances w/ the US and thus Israel, but if Israel drops an nuke all bets are off.

The Saudis will probably have a bomb before too long following a nuclear deal: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-removing-guardrails-prop...

Re: F-35 is built for the wrong war

#597
post #8

The insight here is, that in current warfare, quantity is the quality that matters. And with quantity, cost of replacement needs to be low, platforms expendable, cheap to maintain and resupply. It, and it's support infrastructure, need to not easily be detected and targeted by drones while on the ground. F35 is not these things. It's powerful but brittle, and like many US platforms, too much value packed into too few…

That's a stale insight from an old era of warfare. The purpose of quality is to remove quantity. Iran is the case study. A large stockpile of munitions counts for something, but once the factories are gone, you're on a 3 month clock. Factories being deleted can only be achieved with quality (expensive stand-off munitions + F-35s for SEAD, then missile trucks with cheap JDAMs to take out the factories). 30-50 years ag…

The Iran war isn't over yet. Plenty of time for it to become attritional, especially if the people who want Big Gaza / "mowing the nuclear lawn" to become the status quo are in charge. After all, Afghanistan was a quick victory, 20 years of attrition, and eventual exit.

Re: F-35 is built for the wrong war

#598
post #594
post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> an actual war against China, as if that were a reasonable scenario. Most modern military planning considers it a foregone conclusion. Whether that's accurate or not is arguable, but approaching discussions of military spending from a perspective grounded in current planning is certainly reasonable.

So .. ICBM nuclear exchange? Or are we suddenly expecting a large conventional war between nuclear powers in which both sides decide not to bother with them?

Military planners may believe it to be inevitable, the interesting question to chase is why they think that and who the aggressor would be and in response to what.

That aside, it would likely be unconvential and ground breaking in several respects, eg: likely the first conflict with a large initial space based element, each country wanting to blind the other, with each having large constellations of satellites.

Killing farout geostationary spy sats wouldn't be visible .. but fragging the entire LEO space with "sufficient shrapnel" to initiate a cascading sat failure should(?) make for an interesting global skyshow.

Re: F-35 is built for the wrong war

#599
post #352
post #158

> Meanwhile, modern conflict, from Ukraine’s drone war to naval engagements in the Red Sea to Iran’s own mass missile and drone salvos, increasingly favors systems that can be produced at scale and replaced when lost. The F-35 is a masterpiece. But a force designed around a masterpiece is not designed for long, protracted wars, and U.S. adversaries know this. The problem is that the F-35 was intended to be the low co…

A lot of big words, but also inaccurate. If you compare the F-35 to basically any plane worldwide with similar capabilities, it's very reasonably priced. You can see that in that it's very popular for export, with pre-sales already sold out until 2035. There are plenty of articles out there on this for those who want to Google it.

The only features the F-35 doesn't have for a modern fight are IP ownership and range.

The former was a military procurement mistake and the latter has been worked on for years [0] but never prioritized.

Also, I'm kind of surprised this was published by War on the Rocks, because it leaves a number of extremely relevant topics unmentioned.

The B-21 explicitly addresses both issues above, while mostly resisting the urge to increase size and complexity.

The Air Force is aware of basing vulnerabilities and is looking at multiple solutions (ACE, autonomous tanking, stealth tanking, modular anti-drone aircraft shelters).

The CCA cross-service effort is already targeting pairing >1 UAV to each manned aircraft.

Replicator and other efforts are addressing the "low-at-industrial-scale" problem, and the US just used waves of Shahed clones against Iran.

The article's points would have been more valid 10-15 years ago, but all now have addressing in progress.

[0] https://www.twz.com/air/plans-to-finally-give-f-35-external-...

Re: F-35 is built for the wrong war

#600
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Neither Ukraine nor Russia are using manned aircraft in any significant ways. They are at most used to lob gliding bombs from far behind the front lines. > And naturally F-35s on that theatre would have been a game changer making mass strikes on Moscow possible. And then what? Kyiv has been under relentless strikes from drones and missiles for 5 years. And Moscow was hit by Ukrainian drones several times. You'll need…

It's like watching salami slicing happen in real time. It also forces a dilemma on Russia. Every move of GBAD to Moscow to defend against drone leaves an airfield uncovered. Move some to airfields and it leaves a refinery open. And on and on.

And at the same time, drones are eating the AD every day, with videos of multiple strikes often coming out on a single day. Most in Crimea, but now more often also elsewhere.

An it shows with how the drone attacks on oil ports, refineries a even on navy ships in harbor have been successful lately.

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