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SpaceX files to go public

nytimes.com

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Re: SpaceX files to go public

#591

Post by microtherion »

irishcoffee wrote: post #192
sublinear wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I kinda disagree because while most search engines failed and Google succeeded, they did not succeed by simply being a better search engine. This is only further demonstrated by their excellent leverage of Gemini. Google continues to succeed at being Google.

They absolutely succeeded because they had a better search engine. Without a doubt. I imagine there’s more than a few folks around here who used shit like askjeeves, altavista, et. al. Google was heads and shoulders better than those, and continued to get better over time. No, I’m no Google fan, but it’s revisionist history to say they didn’t have the best search engine.

The way I remember it is that I used at least Lycos and AltaVista before Google. In both cases, a major reason for switching was that the search itself got cluttered up with ads.

So Google's current trajectory does not bode well for them, as far as I'm concerned.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#592

Post by rawgabbit »

triceratops wrote: post #532
edgyquant wrote: post #487

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s already profitable

Profitable-profitable or EBITDA-profitable? https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/spacex-generated-ab... I don't mean this as a gotcha or anything. I imagine rockets are a capital-intensive business. So are datacenters.

Some very rough math. $16 billion in EBITDA with 9million customers. This translates to about $1800 average annual subscription. Per month this is $150.

Starlink for Land 500GB subscription is $165 per month. https://starlink.com/business/maritime.

That is I think Starlink's target customers are ISP deprived. I asked Gemini estimate the size of that market. It said about 10 million in the US and over a 1 billion worldwide. I assume the Elon is pushing the 1 billion number. The problem I see is that outside the US, not everyone can pay $165 per month for internet.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#593

Post by bryananderson »

socialcommenter wrote: post #128
bryananderson wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You may wish it were not so, you may find it inelegant and infuriating and unfair, but it is a fact that retail investors nearly all underperform the market over a long enough time horizon. Maybe you are built different but for most of us it is very rational to take the market return for “free”.

Do understand, though, that market return will struggle to achieve 9% for the coming decades. A 9% annualised return would put the US stock market at 50% of world GDP in 10 years (edit: 20) and something like 90% of world GDP in 30 years (edit: 50 years). Cost of goods, and your customer's money, both have to come out of global GDP too. (The current value of around 25% of global GDP doesn't even include the 1.75 tril…

Yeah I am not taking a position on how the market will do in the future. Just saying that active investing will underperform passive unless you are one of the few market participants who actually has alpha.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#595

Post by dimator »

polski-g wrote: post #485
b3ing wrote: post #117

How will they make money? From governments? With Elon's beliefs, few will be able to afford the vacation trips to space, except a few and they can already do this if they wanted, but haven't in droves. If anything this just proves that the Overview Effect (traveling to space changes you) is just BS, Bezos and the others never changed.

Providing Internet to the entire world that's faster than fiber. Providing space launch capability that's 1/10th what NASA charges. Providing quite good AI at 100 tokens/sec.

I know we're supposed to assume good faith comments here on HN, but god damn...

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#596

Post by scuff3d »

leosanchez wrote: post #340
scuff3d wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No related to this conversation, but I just started reading some books on finance and I actually know what most of those terms mean now! Lol

Any recommendations ?

I'm just stating out on this, so I haven't gotten through everything I want to read yet.

Right now I'm reading Financial Intelligence by Karen Berman and and Joe Knight. There's different versions, but I choose the one "for managers". So far it's done a good job making the material understandable for someone who doesn't have a degree in finance. This the one that's more relevant to the post and will help you start understanding how companies operate at a financial level.

For personal finance I have read

I Will Teach You To Be Rich by Ramit Sethi and A Random Walk Down Wallstreet by Burton G. Malkiel. The first sounds "click-batey" but that's because "I will teach you the boring effective way to manage you're finances" doesn't sell. The latter gets more into the weeds on investing. Bother are great (though Random Walk has been edited many times and the beginning of the book has become bloated, so I'd recommend skimming it a bit since it's just history on epic financial crashes).

I'm planning to read:

7 Powers — Hamilton Helmer

Good Strategy/Bad Strategy — Richard Rumelt

The Outsiders — William N. Thorndike Jr.

The Intelligent Investor — Benjamin Graham

The Psychology of Money — Morgan Housel

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#597

Post by scuff3d »

wodenokoto wrote: post #477
scuff3d wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No related to this conversation, but I just started reading some books on finance and I actually know what most of those terms mean now! Lol

I have a bachelor from a school of business and I have no clue. What did you read that worked?

I'm going to copy/paste a reply I left for another commentor, so I don't have to retype everything lol

I'm just stating out on this, so I haven't gotten through everything I want to read yet. Right now I'm reading Financial Intelligence by Karen Berman and and Joe Knight. There's different versions, but I choose the one "for managers". So far it's done a good job making the material understandable for someone who doesn't have a degree in finance. This the one that's more relevant to the post and will help you start understanding how companies operate at a financial level.

For personal finance I have read

I Will Teach You To Be Rich by Ramit Sethi and A Random Walk Down Wallstreet by Burton G. Malkiel. The first sounds "click-batey" but that's because "I will teach you the boring effective way to manage you're finances" doesn't sell. The latter gets more into the weeds on investing. Bother are great (though Random Walk has been edited many times and the beginning of the book has become bloated, so I'd recommend skimming it a bit since it's just history on epic financial crashes).

I'm planning to read:

7 Powers — Hamilton Helmer

Good Strategy/Bad Strategy — Richard Rumelt

The Outsiders — William N. Thorndike Jr.

The Intelligent Investor — Benjamin Graham

The Psychology of Money — Morgan Housel

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#598

Post by scuff3d »

projektfu wrote: post #500
scuff3d wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No related to this conversation, but I just started reading some books on finance and I actually know what most of those terms mean now! Lol

It's such common language in business that I didn't even realize I was writing so much jargon. I hope you inspired some people to look up the terms. It's really not that hard to understand.... Even CEOs can do it.

With the way I've seen some companies run, I'm not so sure CEOs can lol.

It's been interesting so far. The tough part for me is a the literature is all wrapped in "make your company more successful and profitable", and to be honest I couldn't give a shit about it that. I'm doing this for me, and because (especially on the age of AI) understanding this stuff is more important than ever.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#599

Post by conception »

indoordin0saur wrote: post #536
drzaiusx11 wrote: post #513

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At some point we'll reach saturation of what we're comfortable putting into LEO, or at least greater pushback from governments leading to regulations in hopes of avoiding that. There's a lot of space junk out there already and they're still pumping out those isp satellites en mass. Luckily these specific spacex LEO sats decay pretty rapidly (unless they've made them more advanced recently, I haven't followed closely…

They decay out of orbit by design

Sure over potentially 25 years+.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#600

Post by le-mark »

zemvpferreira wrote: post #569
le-mark wrote: post #520

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I fully expect Jevons paradox to hold for cheap kg to orbit. Spacex could be the monopoly transportation provider of the Solar Alliance. Yes that’s fanciful, but it illustrates the potential.

So we are now hypothesising fully-developed multi-planetary civilisations to justify an IPO price in 2026? By the same leap of logic Coca-Cola is worth 1 trillion times its current price since it's poised to be the galaxy's drink of choice. And I'm being reasonable with my estimate here, how many galaxies could we actually be talking about in potential?

Standard Oil is a ready counter point. The advent of the automobile greatly effected its success. And if one considers the value of children (Exxon, chevron, mobile,etc) after the supreme dissolved it in 1911, it was a tremendous value.

One can easily imagine a similar scenario for cheap kg to orbit.

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