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Tech employment now significantly worse than the 2008 or 2020 recessions

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Re: Tech employment now significantly worse than the 2008 or 2020 recessions

#591

Post by menaerus »

game_the0ry wrote: post #183
mlsu wrote: post #161

I just can't get over how short and intense the period between 2021 and 2023 was. There was SO much hype, such stupendous hiring, in such a compressed timeframe. Within the span of like 9 weeks it went from full steam ahead to completely seized. At the same time, the economy at large didn't seem to change very much. Why did this happen?

Near zero interest rates + COVID remote work + PPP loans = Booming economy What is happening now is the unwinding of the above. Now its: Higher rates + AI + too many SWEs (bootcamps and over-hiring) = Busting economy I think what we are in right now is more the norm and the post covid boom was an exception.

Over-hiring is a myth IMO.

Company wanting to hire essentially has two options: (1) hire from the pool of fresh candidates coming out of the Universities, (2) hire people who are already employed.

This means that to inflate the numbers of software engineers on the market you also have only two options: (1) have the Universities start to somehow exponentially produce the number of software engineers which the market could not amortize, (2) let go a substantial number of software engineers who now (in between 2020-2025) all of the sudden cannot find a new job anymore

(1) is a non-sense and for (2) to take place market needs to stagnate, which is what is happening. Reasons are manyfold.

Re: Tech employment now significantly worse than the 2008 or 2020 recessions

#592

Post by otabdeveloper4 »

mjr00 wrote: post #15

In my experience, tech employment is incredibly bimodal right now. Top candidates are commanding higher salaries than ever, but an "average" developer is going to have an extremely hard time finding a position. Contrary to what many say, I don't think it's simple as seniors are getting hired and juniors aren't. Juniors are still getting hired because they're still way cheaper and they're just as capable as using AI a…

"Senior" is about time served, not about capability. Plenty of clueless seniors out there.

Re: Tech employment now significantly worse than the 2008 or 2020 recessions

#593

Post by frigg »

mjr00 wrote: post #15

In my experience, tech employment is incredibly bimodal right now. Top candidates are commanding higher salaries than ever, but an "average" developer is going to have an extremely hard time finding a position. Contrary to what many say, I don't think it's simple as seniors are getting hired and juniors aren't. Juniors are still getting hired because they're still way cheaper and they're just as capable as using AI a…

>they're just as capable as using AI as anyone.

This is a very naive take. AI output still needs to be guided and iterated over, architecture decisions (even at the code level) still need experience to judge correctly.

Re: Tech employment now significantly worse than the 2008 or 2020 recessions

#594

Post by lambertsimnel »

abustamam wrote: post #550
OJFord wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

General media, news, etc. gets this wrong all the time , see any commentary on inflation, GDP growth, rate of change in house prices, etc.

As an aside, I remember some time ago that Tesla stock went down because the growth of the Model 3 sales went down... After years of being one of the best selling cars on the planet. If number don't go up fast I guess people get scared.

It could have been that so much future growth was priced in that a reduction in the growth rate could have justified a reduction in the share price

Re: Tech employment now significantly worse than the 2008 or 2020 recessions

#595

Post by kortilla »

ehnto wrote: post #561
mlsu wrote: post #161

I just can't get over how short and intense the period between 2021 and 2023 was. There was SO much hype, such stupendous hiring, in such a compressed timeframe. Within the span of like 9 weeks it went from full steam ahead to completely seized. At the same time, the economy at large didn't seem to change very much. Why did this happen?

What was actually booming in though, like why did we suddenly need so many more tech workers? It didn't make much sense to me at the time so I am not particularly surprised by a correction. The big AI companies don't really have high head counts, and the boom started somewhere before AI got taken seriously. Was it just that there was access to cheap money thanks to covid era cash rates during that time?

The world was changing to remote employment. At the time the thinking is that it was here to stay so lots of tech companies invested in making tools for that world.

Re: Tech employment now significantly worse than the 2008 or 2020 recessions

#596

Post by konschubert »

RealityVoid wrote: post #284
konschubert wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know. The company I work at is inviting candidates for interviews, and we have to make compromises because we can't get the exact profiles we are looking for. Something about your comment does not add up to me.

Locality. People want to work close to where they live and not all places are bustling with all kind of activity. I suspect you're hybrid or on site only, right?

Looking for a remote-only job in 2026 is a big handicap, though not impossible.

Re: Tech employment now significantly worse than the 2008 or 2020 recessions

#597

Post by leptons »

Waterluvian wrote: post #506
leptons wrote: post #469

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's typically easiest to find a job when you have a job.

Maybe. Probably? But I also sense a fallacy here. I could get a new job tomorrow. Maybe it took me 8 years to find that job and I didn’t realize that because I was employed the whole time. Does that make sense?

I didn't come up with that idea, it has been passed down through generations of workers, and by multitudes of co-workers.

Re: Tech employment now significantly worse than the 2008 or 2020 recessions

#598

Post by wiseowise »

cyberpunk wrote: post #370
jokoon wrote: post #351

People constantly tell me "oh you're a dev it's easy to find work" I'm a c++ dev, with excellent senior tests, but low experience, and no degree in France. 3 years without a job. I yearn for a new pandemic. Fortunately, I learned how to live without a job, found other things to do and how to live a life. Welfare is generous, and I have good savings. Honestly I don't really want to work in software anymore. If there i…

I’ve never really found there to be all that much of a market for specifically c++ developers. If you do decide to look for work more seriously I wouldn’t be too hung up on language, if you can code in one you can pretty much code in all of them, and I’ve never hired a developer for specific language skill outside of a few rare cases it’s something really specific we are trying to fix (e.g erlang or something), even…

This. Especially now with LLMs value of grinding C++ trivia gets close to nothing.

“Oh, you know 12 ways to initialize a value in C++? That’s cute”

Re: Tech employment now significantly worse than the 2008 or 2020 recessions

#599

Post by wiseowise »

phendrenad2 wrote: post #583
palmotea wrote: post #8

The ideal software engineer will code himself out of a job and be happy about it. Be that ideal. The shareholders are counting on you!

I prefer to code myself out of a job, and be the shareholder. I'm counting on myself!

Good luck to you! I’ll hold a spot for you at the food line, let me know when that unemployment check arrives.

Re: Tech employment now significantly worse than the 2008 or 2020 recessions

#600

Post by wiseowise »

gzoo wrote: post #585
hackmack10 wrote: post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Software will become cheaper to write and more software will be written. A senior will always outcompete a junior when it comes to logical thinking and a true understanding of IT. A programmer will always outcompete a non-programmer when it comes to using AI tools. Bottom line, if programmers are fucked, so is just about anyone else.

"Universal Basic Income" is what they are telling us. What do you think

Who’s going to pay it, though? And it’s pretty much minimum salary level.
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