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Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

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Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#591

Post by YZF »

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #444
Braxton1980 wrote: post #374

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Market economy The recent massive increase in the US governments direct and indirect involvement in business decisions changes things. Trump is pushing/forcing countries and companies to invest in the US. He's added more restrictions on who they can sell their products. New significant widespread tariffs also exist that forces businesses to decide on how they can handle it while being pressured not to raise prices.…

> Government involvement in business decisions, even if indirect, is not a market economy. In a true market economy supply and demand should determine prices and businesses and consumers make the decisions on their respective side. This is true but not a novelty. The US has been doing all kinds of things to harm its markets for decades, e.g. artificially constraining the housing supply, using tax incentives and manip…

There are still huge incentives for doctors to go the US. They can make a lot more money and have a much higher quality of life. They also have access to the very latest equipment and technology and likely the best academic and research system as well. This is a problem in Canada where we have a shortage of doctors.

What's more likely, for a Canadian or European doctor to want to move to the US or for an American doctor to want to move to Europe or Canada? I would say that even with all the current "noise" (which certainly moves the needle a little bit) this is still very true. When we see doctors leaving the US in droves for better careers in China, Russia, Europe or Canada then I would say this is a real problem.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#592

Post by coryrc »

dash2 wrote: post #586
panarky wrote: post #582

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If equities are "too big to fail" then governments will do everything in their power to ensure prices continue to go up. If the right price for equities is 30% of their current value, and if achieving that price means the regime will fall in the next election (or sooner due to civil disorder), then the regime will not allow that to happen. A regime that controls its own currency has nearly unlimited power to prop up…

In theory this could be true. Is the US government actually doing anything specifically to prop up equity values?

The federal reserve has 7x the assets it had in 2009: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttren...

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#593

Post by Bnjoroge »

twoodfin wrote: post #500
shimman wrote: post #332

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Supporting companies that profit off of misery, reduce human meaningfulness, those that innovate the surveillance state; why is it so hard to support policies like giving US school children free breakfast + lunch, medicare for all, public housing, universal childcare, federally mandated paid time off, universal higher education + vocational training, and a public jobs program (all things that have 70-90% voter approv…

I dunno, I love my iPhone, especially when I use it to take photos of my kids. Amazon is pretty great, too. Also schoolchildren in my state have had free school breakfast & lunch since Covid.

incredible self awareness - well done

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#594

Post by trgn »

diogenescynic wrote: post #393
yomismoaqui wrote: post #160

If you predict a crash every month and it happens after 2 years... can we call you a visionary?

There's a real estate YouTube channel that's been calling for a real estate downturn for like 8 years (pre-Pandemic). Eventually they'll be right.

real's estate been flat for a number of years now in half the country, down even in some parts. not a crash perse, but certainly a bad investment and starkly different from situation 4-5 years ago.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#595

Post by panarky »

YZF wrote: post #579
panarky wrote: post #566

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> Canada's Carney whines about "international order" when just a few years ago ... > They have pretended to play by the rules @YZF is unwittingly agreeing with Carney. The rules-based order is partially a fiction. Relevant snips from Carney's Davos speech. "The system's power comes not from its truth, but from everyone's willingness to perform as if it were true, and its fragility comes from the same source." "For d…

I'm well aware Carney also says it never really existed. So I don't think there's an "unwittingly" here. My issue with Carney is that he's whining about it.

He's the first world leader I've seen who publicly tells other leaders to stop complaining that the false thing is false, that pretending the false thing is true hurts everyone except the hegemon at the top. Taking concrete action to build a replacement system it is kinda the opposite of whining.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#596

Post by dpkirchner »

IAmGraydon wrote: post #578
lvl155 wrote: post #50

Software sector basically got cut in half just on Claude Code. You have to wonder what is next. I don’t think loss in economics is 1:1 with replacement so it’s not zero sum. Production doesn’t necessarily go up. In fact, net output is going to go down if you think about all the B2B lost too. Whoever comes into power next better start thinking about universal income fast. We are gonna get there sooner than expected.

>Software sector basically got cut in half just on Claude Code. Source? What you're claiming is completely untrue. There have been claims like this circulating on the internet recently, and they're all based off this one chart: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE There are a few major problems with this. First, all of the data comes from one source: Indeed. Indeed SURGED in popularity in the Covid y…

I agree that there's no way the market has been cut in half, however I am curious to see if aggregate cash (or at least non-stock) spending on engineers has been affected. Are we seeing a decline in average or median wages?

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#597

Post by dash2 »

coryrc wrote: post #592
dash2 wrote: post #586

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In theory this could be true. Is the US government actually doing anything specifically to prop up equity values?

The federal reserve has 7x the assets it had in 2009: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttren...

How much of that is shares as opposed to treasuries, MBS etc?

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#598

Post by CamelCaseName »

coryrc wrote: post #592
dash2 wrote: post #586

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In theory this could be true. Is the US government actually doing anything specifically to prop up equity values?

The federal reserve has 7x the assets it had in 2009: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttren...

Okay, but this shows that they made massive acquisition in 2020 (presumably at the bottom of the market in response to COVID) and are now unwinding

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#599

Post by trgn »

tock wrote: post #69

Stocks might go down if AI doesn't bring in enough revenue. The real risk seems to be currency depreciation though. The USD is already down 15% this year compared to the Euro. I'm worried about what the next FED chair appointee will do. JPow has stuck to his principles so far.

falling usd is a disaster in a consumption economy like ours. fuels inflation. makes investing in usd-denominated assets less attractive. it's not going to boost exports due to tarriff walls. there's no silver lining here.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#600

Post by trgn »

dgellow wrote: post #519
tock wrote: post #69

Stocks might go down if AI doesn't bring in enough revenue. The real risk seems to be currency depreciation though. The USD is already down 15% this year compared to the Euro. I'm worried about what the next FED chair appointee will do. JPow has stuck to his principles so far.

Is it really seen as “the real risk” if it is something the current elected president very explicitly said for decades he wants to do? He does want USD to go down in value. He said it, repeatedly, openly. He made very clear why he went after Powell (that he himself reappointed). It’s more, exactly what we should expect than a risk no?

do you have link to article or vids where trump or admin talks about this?
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