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American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

kielinstitut.de

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Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#591

Post by nkmnz »

speakfreely wrote: post #50
ungreased0675 wrote: post #2

> Event studies around discrete tariff shocks on Brazil (50%) and India (25–50%) confirm: export prices did not decline. Trade volumes collapsed instead. What if that was the intended result?

It certainly was to anyone who has been paying attention. I would highly recommend that anyone who thinks the tariff strategy is irrational to read through Michael Kao's substack and his analysis of the administration's 2.0 playbook [1]. There's good news and bad news, but overall there's glimmers of hope. [1] https://archive.ph/kLxw3

How can one come to the conclusion that US consumers suffered from the US trade deficit with China? They’ve effectively received free stuff every single year, manufactured by Chinese workers, without paying them. I don’t get it.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#592

Post by JohnMakin »

transcriptase wrote: post #459
Glyptodon wrote: post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Much like I think if any Dem other than Hillary Clinton ran against Trump for his winning term 1, I think if the Dems had a proper primary process for this last election they'd probably have picked somebody who'd also have won. That said, I'm not sure being a woman was worse than being from CA or black with a solid chunk of the electorate. (I'm reminded of how some of my own relatives seemed to want to avoid visiting…

They didn’t even have a proper primary with Hillary. She was anointed by the DNC to start and the party itself worked against other candidates any way it could to make sure she “won”. Completely ignoring the fact that she was the opposite of any candidate that might snag a single vote from the republicans, and unlikable among most dem voters themselves. Throw in the fact that they were so convinced of a victory that…

I don't really disagree with this but my opinion is that basically no one is capable of winning a US presidential campaign in the modern era in a matter of ~100 days. The fact Harris was a uniquely bad candidate that weirdly refused to differentiate herself from Biden, just exacerbated that problem.

If Biden and his administration had not been so hellbent on hiding his decline and allowed a robust primary process to start a year earlier, we'd also probably be living in a very different world. There was an extraordinary amount of hubris involved. Hell, even the amount of time between the debate and Biden stepping down (and then initially refusing to endorse Harris) took an absurdly long time. Felt like the lesson with Hillary's campaign was not learned - they expected people to vote for Harris by virtue she was not Trump. Clearly that has not been working.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#593

Post by brightball »

lovich wrote: post #584
brightball wrote: post #566

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In fairness to this report, the report is about tariffs and their impact on...imported goods affected directly by tariffs isn't it? From an overall economic policy standpoint, missing facts that provide context are pretty important especially when you're trying to paint an entire side of the isle as completely brainwashed. Nobody can have a conversation when we create straw men to argue with. Other relevant context:…

> The US trade deficit just hit its lowest points since 2009 due to decreased imports and increased exports, which rose by record amounts. Why is this positive? And I’m not implying it’s negative either. It’s just a fact sans context on the effect of the market unless you’ve bought the current admins argument that a trade deficit means you’re getting ripped off. > US Q4 2025 GDP grew by 5.5%, outpacing China at 4.5%.…

Added a link to the original post for the Q4 GDP forecast quickly.

> Why is this positive? And I’m not implying it’s negative either. It’s just a fact sans context on the effect of the market unless you’ve bought the current admins argument that a trade deficit means you’re getting ripped off.

When would increased exports not be a good thing for any country? The tariff conversation was interesting for me in particular as more of an ideological free trade advocate because I didn't realize just how heavily other countries were applying tariffs goods from the US in some cases. The admin initially stated they were going to apply reciprocal tariff's but those numbers never fully lined up.

Anytime you can create an incentive to on-shore production, it's typically good for the country based on jobs, domestic production, supply chains following production, domestic industrial education and training, etc.

I never spent too much time thinking about it, but as a negotiation point the US is the worlds biggest importer. That does mean that cheap access to the US market is a valuable tool in those conversations.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#594

Post by tokai »

jacquesm wrote: post #585
cdrnsf wrote: post #545

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not sure they care so long as they maintain their wealth and can insulate themselves.

It's like setting fire to a house and thinking that your room will be the one that is spared. Complete madness.

Its the autocrat play book, hurting your country makes it easier to pilfer it. Doesn't matter if the pie get smaller as long as your slice of it gets bigger.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#595

Post by jacquesm »

tokai wrote: post #594
jacquesm wrote: post #585

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's like setting fire to a house and thinking that your room will be the one that is spared. Complete madness.

Its the autocrat play book, hurting your country makes it easier to pilfer it. Doesn't matter if the pie get smaller as long as your slice of it gets bigger.

Indeed, but it never works long term, it only works for a while.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#596

Post by nkmnz »

zkmon wrote: post #48

In India, every tax imposed on a business goes straight to consumer. The consumer receipt even mentions some of those taxes item-wise. I thought American consumer also might see this on their shopping receipts? Who thinks businesses would swallow taxes?

Your speaking of VAT. And even though it’s pointed out on the receipt, it doesn’t mean that the consumer pays all of it compared to a scenario without tax: just imagine you’re a businessman and a VAT of 20% is introduced. Would you be able to increase the prices of all your goods by 20%? For some, maybe. For others with fierce competition and hesitant buyers? Maybe not. The same shows the other way around: imagine a VAT of 20% is abolished. Would you lower all your prices by ~16.6%? Probably, but only for those items that you know your competitors will reduce the price for as well. The terminology to look up is elasticity of supply and demand. There are nice graphs that show the effects of different kinds of interventions.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#597

Post by [deleted] »

3D30497420 wrote: post #578
giardini wrote: post #487

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Decreased from where...? " "Flash Report: U.S. Jobless Rate Ticked Down in December" https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2026/jan/flash-rep... FTFA: "The unemployment rate in the U.S. has decreased to 4.4% in December 2025, down from 4.5% in November. This decline follows a period of rising rates, with the economy adding just 50,000 jobs in December, indicating a slowdown in job growth. The labor market is sho…

Sorry, you're claiming a decrease of 0.1% over one month (after a clear upward trajectory since April 2023) as evidence that tariffs are working?

[deleted]

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#598

Post by Dirak »

Today the S&P500 is at an all-time high, energy prices are at all-time lows, and there is no clear indication of recession. This, all in spite of the fact that for the last decade, economists have been crying that tariffs would ruin the American economy, trigger deep recession, etc.

The claim of this analysis is a significant backpedaling on the narrative they've been wrong about regarding the effects of tariffs. Instead of trying to reposition the goal posts on the effects of tariffs, it would be far more productive to simply acknowledge that the original dire predictions of tariffs did not manifest.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#599

Post by LexiMax »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #266
PaulRobinson wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of Americans believed the guy they wanted to believe in, because they didn't want to believe the people they didn't want to believe in. You're assuming that modern politics across most of the World has something to do with rational, logical thought. Russia, China, Europe, the US, the Middle East - they are all in a quagmire of irrational fractures between the public and the political classes who want power/cont…

You are using "believed" - past tense. Facts change nothing. This report means nothing. These people still believe. The report is wrong. They are right. The truth is whatever they want it to be, not something out of their control.

My pet theory, one that is borne out by some amount of anecdotal evidence, is that they don't honestly believe. Assuming they're not bots, they were bit by the 2025 cost of living increases just as much as anybody, they know what changed, they know in their gut that Trump is the reason for it.

They are just so caught up in their culture war that they believe that shouldering such a burden, at least for a time, is worth it for all of the "positives" of the regime - especially the part where people they don't like are suffering.

That's why trying to argue over tariffs is useless - not because they don't believe, but because that's not their underlying motivation. In fact, they would prefer to talk about tariffs, because they have a set of well-rehearsed talking points for arguing against that.

It's better to figure out what they actually care about, as well as their motivations for why.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#600

Post by cdrnsf »

jacquesm wrote: post #595
tokai wrote: post #594

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its the autocrat play book, hurting your country makes it easier to pilfer it. Doesn't matter if the pie get smaller as long as your slice of it gets bigger.

Indeed, but it never works long term, it only works for a while.

Given Trump's age and health, I don't think he's worried about the long term.
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