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How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

japantimes.co.jp

591–600 of 645 posts

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#591

Domestically, we often put it this way: since it wasn’t made by God, we can definitely make it ourselves. It’s only a matter of time — if not this year, then next year; if we can’t do it next year, we’ll just keep going. This is how we approach everything. There is a small caveat, though. China was not actually that far behind in the semiconductor field in the past. The problem was that corruption and fraudulent proj…

> Domestically, we often put it this way: since it wasn’t made by God, we can definitely make it ourselves. It’s only a matter of time — if not this year, then next year; if we can’t do it next year, we’ll just keep going. This is how we approach everything. That's how everyone who industrialized/advanced approaches everything. China isn't the only country with the "can do" or "if you can do it, we can do it" attitud…

I understood OP's saying more as "appetite for doing".

Ignoring the practical reality that you need resources, capacity, good planning, and so on to actually do something. I understood OP as saying the mindset in China is that they want to do it all. They are willing to invest even in things that would have poor ROI, if they can come into an industry and undercut by taking a smaller margin they will.

If so, that is a difference in attitude. In the west, we are only interested in returns that beat our alternatives. Capital is divested based on maximizing return on investment. This is why we even allowed many industries in the first place to move to China and we exited those segments domestically.

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#592
post #221

Seems like demographics, AI, and tech parity are converging on a Taiwan takeover attempt in the 2027-2030 timeframe.

Peaceful democratic transition is also on the table when KMT wins back the presidency next.

Read as "anyone connected flees to the US, anyone deemed political gets a free relocation to a Xinjiang re-education camp, and lots of new mainland 'mothers' live with those allowed to remain".

Why would anyone voluntarily sign up to have Winnie the Pooh's boot on their face?

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#593
post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Peaceful democratic transition is also on the table when KMT wins back the presidency next.

Read as "anyone connected flees to the US, anyone deemed political gets a free relocation to a Xinjiang re-education camp, and lots of new mainland 'mothers' live with those allowed to remain". Why would anyone voluntarily sign up to have Winnie the Pooh's boot on their face?

You have brain worms

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#594

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which isn't at all accurate. Venture capital specifically exists to fund first, in the pursuit of success later - and the US has been by a dramatic margin the leader in doing that for the past ~60-70 years.

VC still requires startups to find themselves and prove something first. China basically has a program to do X and anyone can sign up to be a part of that program. All are funded and the winners emerge. I’m broadly generalizing that process but that’s not how VC approaches it.

So instead of "Come pitch us your varied and unique ideas and convince us how our investment will 1000x the returns" it's more like "we need this capability in this industry. Here is a pool of money for you to start figuring it out. We'll focus on the more successful companies over time until they can stand on their own and compete internationally."

I can't imagine why China is so dominant in so many areas when they explicitly plan and invest in capabilities they want to have instead of just relying on the market to "naturally" provide these capabilities or constantly relying on the same handful of inept and corrupt companies to deliver on national needs.

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#595
post #561

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Rather, the US wants its worker coming up with the concept of drones to begin with. Sure, but that idea is too stupid and arrogant to event consider. China's not going to cede that kind of high-level work forever. They'll learn how to do it, and when that happens what will the US do? And then, in the conflict, can your "concept makers" get their implementation done by the hamburger assemblers, with their hamburger…

>Sure, but that idea is too stupid and arrogant to event consider. China's not going to cede that kind of high-level work forever. The "stupid and arrogant" idea has worked for decades and the only real problem with it is espionage. Stealing someone else's labor is an enormous amount of China's progress, and a good thing to remember when musing about a country's future.

> The "stupid and arrogant" idea has worked for decades and the only real problem with it is espionage.

No, the stupid and arrogant idea is the one that the Chinese will be content to occupy the subordinate position forever, taking direction from Westerners and doing only the grunt work the Westerners often think is beneath them.

It's also stupid and arrogant to think the Chinese are not capable of innovation on their own. The espionage was a tactic to catch up more quickly, and now that they've done that, Chinese are innovating on their own now and have better technology in many areas. But that's not the only thing going on: Western countries are literally going over to China, teaching them what they'll need to know to out-compete them in the future.

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#596
post #2

A better title would be "New EUV light source built in Shenzhen". Light source said to be working, not fabbing chips yet. Few technical details in the Reuters article.

The light source is the “easy” bit. The mirrors, masks, and the rest of the machine are all individually as difficult if not more so. The wafers have to be positioned to nanometer accuracy repeatedly and at high speed! It’s hard to believe that’s even possible, let alone commercially viable.

Managing the light source, specifically the 13.5nm length on the wave spectrum, that gets generated from overheated tin plasma, is in fact the most challenging part of the machine. Here "managing" includes the process of hitting a rightly sized tin droplet with lasers at the right angles, and all the rest of the complicated fluid math necessary to get the most of that precious lighting moment, as well as the proper handling of that spark event's after-effects, of course. As opposed to the rest of the machine parts (like directing the EUV light to the reticle through those mirrors you mention), the light generation part is dynamic, very easily to get wrong, and very costly to iterate on.

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#597

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd rather be in China than the USA right now.

Are you being facetious or are you ignorant of what it's actually like over there? https://reclaimthenet.org/china-man-chair-interrogation-soci... Or even worse, do you actually support their views on human rights?

The US disappeared a local business owner down the street from me in a sleepy suburb because he happened to be walking to his business one morning while brown.

ICE/BP was looking for someone else, but saw another brown person while waiting, and took the opportunity to grab him, too.

He was imprisoned for more than a month and shuffled around the country before anyone bothered to look at his identification or acknowledge their validity.

Are you aware of what's going on in the US right now?

NYT: Those Deported to El Salvador Were Shackled, Beaten, and Sexually Assaulted[1]

And if you're saying to yourself, "what do I have to worry about, I'm not brown", well, do you have kids who you don't want to have abducted and zip-tied naked in the middle of the night by paramilitaries using grenades and rappelling from helicopters into your home[2][3]?

> Neighbors like Eboni Watson say they ducked for cover as they heard several flash bangs.

> "They was terrified. The kids was crying. People was screaming. They looked very distraught. I was out there crying when I seen the little girl come around the corner, because they was bringing the kids down, too, had them zip tied to each other," Watson said. "That's all I kept asking. What is the morality? Where's the human? One of them literally laughed. He was standing right here. He said, 'fuck them kids.'"

> “It was heartbreaking to watch,” she said. “Even if you’re not a mother, seeing kids coming out buck naked and taken from their mothers, it was horrible.”

> "They just treated us like we were nothing," Fisher said.

[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/08/world/americas/el-salvado...

[2] https://www.rawstory.com/it-was-heartbreaking-naked-zip-tied...

[3] https://abc7chicago.com/post/ice-chicago-federal-agents-surr...

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#598
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are nowhere close to beat ASML. This isn't a moat ASML can keep for long though. There can be alternatove technologies to achieve the same goal. So far only China has that incentive. The real problem is process scaling is slowing down. How many more generations of lithography machines will ASML design? Probably not many. This means there will be no edge left in 5 or 10 years, as eventually brute force will work…

> So far only China has that incentive. The US is close to having that incentive, if the rift between the US and Europe keeps widening. The Netherlands has one lever, but damn it's a long one.

ASML has long lever against the Dutch government too. They keep threatening them to move to another country.

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#599
post #379

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And that copying was largely enabled by our greedy western bean counters that outsourced so many things in the first place.

Which in turn was fueled by the consumers' desire for cheap stuff, and for their portfolios to earn them a lot of money to be able to retire early and live comfortably while letting a cheaper workforce far away do more and more of the dirty and dangerous jobs. The "bean counters" are under pressure just like everybody else. They didn't come up with their targets and incentives out of nowhere.

That's what happens when wages are relatively stagnant compared to increases in productivity.

Re: How China built its ‘Manhattan Project’ to rival the West in AI chips

#600

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't disagree with you on the conclusion, but man I just wish people stopped believing in fairy tales about countries like this. America does it too. Why are people so allergic to materialism? I'm not saying culture is irrelevant but saying china's success is due to "Chinese way of thinking" or america was dominant because of the "american dream" is an adult believing santa-tier take. Material conditions shape his…

Why would you assume culture is immaterial? And to make this less emotional let’s take the micro scale; don’t you think the culture of doing engineering doesn’t affect outcomes team to team within the same company, or company to company within the same country or even country to country within the same company?

a perfect example in this context would be when a company is successful and it's attributed to culture not product market fit, funding or luck
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