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Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

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Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#591
post #364

Earlier quoted context omitted.

See this is what I don't understand. Everything you just said about China is a positive. Everything you said about China is achievable in the USA, and we at least HAD a head start on soft-power influence. Instead we should just have tariffs instead of actually making the lives of Americans better while FIGHTING affordable housing, high speed rail, and EVs. We've got an entire team of goons who would rather rack up pe…

I do think the state of progress in China is vastly underestimated by the west. It has been fast and messy, not evenly distributed, but it is staggering. The rhetoric around them is changing too, I think they are making significant soft power gains. I could easily see them filling the voids that US policy chaos is currently creating.

They were making soft-power gains before that maniac we elected showed up. Now our now former allies are leaning on their shoulder.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#592

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Friedman quotes attributed inflation to the actions of the Fed Then this is a lie: “Inflation started the year after the Fed was created. See ‘Monetary History of the United States’ by Milton Friedman” [1]. > for inflation through the history of the US, see I’ve already pointed out how that source lies about the data it cites [2]. I will assume you’re misunderstanding what you’re reading. But it’s too close to will…

There's no need for you to be nasty.

Sorry, didn’t mean to convey that. Just perhaps mild frustration.

I don’t believe you meant to speak inaccurately. But the chart clearly misquotes its source data. That was pointed out and yet we couldn’t get past it across multiple threads.

I pulled the source data and recompiled the true rates; they partly support your hypothesis (but not the chart’s). There was inflation before the Fed but, if those data are to be believed, very little of it was secular. The balance of inter- versus intragenerational stability (and how that may have changed with industrialization and computers) is a genuinely interesting question, and not one I’d have stumbled across in this context were it not for you.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#593

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m curious whether it’s more the tariffs, or the uncertainty. No one knows what will happen on a day-to-day basis: the chaotic (and illegal) decision-making leaves everyone wondering what’s next.

It is more the volatility for sure. Tarrifs have existed forever and business has always coped with them.

I would say more about general uncertainty than volatility but similar thought. Disagree on the reason though, tariffs like we are experiencing have not been in our existence for a couple generations. And especially not in the modern connected global market.

I don’t believe most if not all of us have experienced such an immature and erratic administration. We are taxing trade partners, flip flopping on rules and nobody knows what to make of it.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#594
post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

See this is what I don't understand. Everything you just said about China is a positive. Everything you said about China is achievable in the USA, and we at least HAD a head start on soft-power influence. Instead we should just have tariffs instead of actually making the lives of Americans better while FIGHTING affordable housing, high speed rail, and EVs. We've got an entire team of goons who would rather rack up pe…

I feel it's more they're not actually playing for the scoreline. They want to be the team #1, even if that causes the team to lose in the end.

I'll add that the team leader doesn't expect to live long enough to see his team lose, and that's all that really matters to him.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#595

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's the whole "benevolent" dictatorship VS flawed democracy debate.

It might be an authoritarian one party state but China isn't a dictatorship right?

What is a dictatorship if not what you just described?

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#596

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm trying to imagine Trump playing any sort of musical instrument.

something good for small hands, some kind of russian flute?

I was gonna say something gross but decided against it.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#597

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The worsening of the distribution of wealth is exactly the problem. Productivity is increasing faster than wages. That means labor is losing out on economic gains. Your argument is that labor should just accept this because “at least they’re better off than before.” Imagine you invest $1000 in the stock market and the market is growing at 10%. But when you open your brokerage account, you see only 5% growth, and it t…

> The worsening of the distribution of wealth is exactly the problem. That's literally what I said, and why the solution is to undo the things that produced that instead of undoing the things that fueled the aggregated growth while doubling down on the sources of inequality.

Then I agree. But, one of the sources of inequality is labor arbitrage by the capitalist class. Tariffs decrease the utility of that arbitrage.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#598
post #558

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> nobody asked for The american public asked for it loud and clear for it last november. We should respect that.

Loud and clear? Trump didn't even get half of the votes (49.8%) and almost 36% of eligible voters didn't vote, meaning that not even one third of the American public voted for this.

Popular vote does not matter to americans, otherwise they would have changed the voting system.

36% of voters said: I support every outcome of the election, no matter what.

And we are now about half a year into his term and I see some complaining, but not one single person seriously opposing him and his politics. If the things he does were really that unpopular, he would not be able to do them. To me it seems like he has the full support of the american public.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#599

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lunch eaten by whom? Who was eating the world's richest country's lunch? The only lunch eating going on is the American rich eating the poors', something that's only accelerated under Trump. The tariffs are a tax that is most disproportionate on the poor. And they are in no way, shape or form actually intelligently designed to help them. It's just stupid madness.

The American worker has had their lunch eaten by the American capitalist class in conjunction with countries providing cheaper labor. By allowing unfettered labor arbitrage (i.e. tariff-free trade) the US has allowed their working class to be completely gutted. Combined with with unfettered illegal immigration (another Democratic Party position), the assault on the American worker is immense.

Unfettered illegal immigration is not a Democratic Party position.

Both Obama & Biden deported more illegal immigrants than Trump.

Due Process is a Democratic Party position that Republicans don't value.

Actually, considering the lack of real penalties for employers of illegal aliens, I'd say that the acceptance by both parties of white-collar crime is the real problem.

Properly prosecute rich criminals & illegal immigration will dry up real fast.

Re: Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything

#600

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am harsh on Walter because he tends to argue in bad faith in order to support some weird pro-business libertarian world view. He's super active on HN (as am I) so I have argued with him and there are multiple times he has said things that are outright dishonest (like once claiming that incompetent workers immediately get fired from corporations, a post I can't find quickly but is in my history somewhere, or trying…

There is nothing wrong with being a UFO fanboy - anyone that is not these days is psychotic. There have been so many leaks at this point, if you don't believe that's dangerous. You're all waiting for Trump to claim it or something? It's already been announced.

Kind of off course for this convo, but no I do not think that recent "evidence" of UFOs is very compelling. Feel free to believe what you'd like but I do not think it's extra-terrestrials.

Even if we do some phenomena that we cannot explain as of right now, that does not imply aliens, it only implies that there's something we can't (yet) explain. A lot of the videos that were being hailed as smoking guns seemed to be a combination of camera artifacts and just optical parallax and stuff like that. It doesn't pass my metric for aliens yet.

The thing is, I would absolutely love to be wrong on this. It would be insanely cool to be part of the first humans who found extra-terrestrial life, so if anything I'm biased in favor of these things being aliens, but as of right now I am not convinced.

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