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The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

cnn.com

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Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#591

Post by IshKebab »

TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #94
michaeldoron wrote: post #78

Every time an analyst gives the current state of AI-based tools as evidence supporting AI disruption being just a hype, I think of skeptics who dismissed the exponential growth of covid19 cases due to their initial low numbers. Putting that aside, how is this article called an analysis and not an opinion piece? The only analysis done here is asking a labor economist what conditions would allow this claim to hold, and…

I'm not seeing how comparing AI to a virus that killed millions and left tens of millions crippled is an effective way to support your argument.

I think you missed the point. AI is dismissed by idiots because they are looking at its state now, not what it will be in future. The same was true in the pandemic.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#592

Post by HumanOstrich »

threeseed wrote: post #564
directevolve wrote: post #551

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We’re already heading toward the sigmoid plateau. The GPT 3 to 4 shift was massive. Nothing since had touched that. I could easily go back to the models I was using 1-2 years ago with little impact on my work. I don’t use RAG, and have no doubt the infrastructure for integrating AI into a large codebase has improved. But the base model powering the whole operation seems stuck.

> I don’t use RAG, and have no doubt the infrastructure for integrating AI into a large codebase has improved It really hasn't. The problem is that a GenAI system needs to not only understand the large codebase but also the latest stable version of every transitive dependency it depends on. Which is typically in the order of hundreds or thousands. Having it build a component with 10 year old, deprecated, CVE-riddled…

How did you think MCP was going to solve the issue of a large number of outdated dependencies?

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#593

Post by meander_water »

Izkata wrote: post #535
SteveNuts wrote: post #498

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>A little further on and it'll be writers, actors, etc. The tech is going to have to be absolutely flawless, otherwise the uncanny-valley nature of AI "actors" in a movie will be as annoying as when the audio and video aren't perfectly synced in a stream. At least that's how I see it..

This was made a little over a week ago: https://www.reddit.com/r/IndiaTech/comments/1ksjcsr/this_vid... For most of them I'm not seeing any of those issues.

I wonder if this is going to change the ad/marketing industry. People generally put up with shitty ads, and these will be much cheaper to produce. I dread what's coming next.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#594

Post by tsunamifury »

godelski wrote: post #588
digitcatphd wrote: post #474

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As of now yes. But we are still in day 0.1 of GenAI. Do you think this will be the case when o3 models are 10x better and 100x cheaper? There will be a turning point but it’s not happened yet.

Yet we're what? 5 years into "AI will replace programmers in 6 months"? 10 years into "we'll have self driving cars next year" We're 10 years into "it's just completely obvious that within 5 years deep learning is going to replace radiologists" Moravec's paradox strikes again and again. But this time it's different and it's completely obvious now, right?

[flagged]

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#595

Post by GoblinSlayer »

drodgers wrote: post #537
jaggederest wrote: post #516

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All these folks are once again seeing the first 1/4 of a sigmoid curve and extrapolating to infinity.

No doubt from me that it’s a sigmoid, but how high is the plateau? That’s also hard to know from early in the process, but it would be surprising if there’s not a fair bit of progress left to go. Human brains seem like an existence proof for what’s possible, but it would be surprising if humans also represent the farthest physical limits of what’s technologically possible without the constraints of biology (hip size,…

Human brains are easy to do, just run evolution for neural networks.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#596

Post by renewiltord »

VonTum wrote: post #433
renewiltord wrote: post #386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

What a weird crabs-in-a-bucket argument against unions. "Don't empower yourself and the rest of your colleagues because they might get powerful enough to kick you out"? The whole reason H1Bs were invented is to disempower the existing workforce. Not reaching for a (long overdue) tool of power for tech workers is playing right into their hand.

[flagged]

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#597

Post by croes »

digitcatphd wrote: post #474
simonsarris wrote: post #465

I think the real white collar bloodbath is that the end of ZIRP was the end of infinite software job postings, and the start of layoffs. I think its easy to now point to AI, but it seems like a canard for the huge thing that already happened. just look at this: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JmOr In terms of magnitude the effect of this is just enormous and still being felt, and never recovered to pre-2020 lev…

As of now yes. But we are still in day 0.1 of GenAI. Do you think this will be the case when o3 models are 10x better and 100x cheaper? There will be a turning point but it’s not happened yet.

If not when.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#598

Post by renewiltord »

catigula wrote: post #448
renewiltord wrote: post #386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

The funny thing is that you're not wrong and this is yet another feather in the cap of "foreign labor are literal scabs" argument.

The history of unions and the past of the AFLCIO is filled with successful lobbying to prevent immigrants from becoming American. They’re not going to stop suddenly today.

Knowing one’s enemy is key to fighting them.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#599

Post by conradkay »

wiseowise wrote: post #573
tdeck wrote: post #416

Maybe someone can help me wrap my head around this in a different way, because here's how I see it. If these tools are really making people so productive, shouldn't it be painfully obvious in companies' output? For example, if these AI coding tools were an amazing productivity boost in the end, we'd expect to see software companies shipping features and fixes faster than ever before. There would be a huge burst in in…

I will never understand this argument. If you have a super tool, that can magically double your output, why would you suddenly double your output publicly? So that you now work twice essentially for the same money? You use it to work less, your output stays static or marginally improves - that’s smart play. Note: I’m talking about your run of the mill SE waggie work, not startups where your food is based on your outp…

That only works if you're one of very few people with the tool. Otherwise the rest of your team is now 2x as productive as you.

Re: The ‘white-collar bloodbath’ is all part of the AI hype machine

#600

Post by croes »

tsunamifury wrote: post #594
godelski wrote: post #588

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yet we're what? 5 years into "AI will replace programmers in 6 months"? 10 years into "we'll have self driving cars next year" We're 10 years into "it's just completely obvious that within 5 years deep learning is going to replace radiologists" Moravec's paradox strikes again and again. But this time it's different and it's completely obvious now, right?

[flagged]

Where did it happen?

They try it, but it’s not reliable

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