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Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

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Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#591

I’m not seeing anyone discuss this here, so I figured I’d raise an important point: this style of tariffs is crushing for US manufacturing. While a universal tariff with no exceptions incentivizes domestic manufacturing, a selective tariff with specific industry exceptions is absolute poison. You might think, as the authors of this exemption did, “well then we will exempt computer parts.” Then people will simply impo…

Universal import taxes on everything make no sense.

If you want to protect strategic production, you apply selective tariffs to support that local production while ensuring it can ramp up and import what it needs until it becomes self-sufficient.

Most countries, the US included, have used selective tariffs for this purpose. Applying a blanket tax on every type of import just increases inflation, as you can't possibly manufacture everything locally. For many products—especially cheap ones that were outsourced to China—there's no way to produce them cheaply enough for your internal market to absorb all production.

And you can't export them either, because their higher production cost makes them uncompetitive compared to cheaper alternatives from low-cost countries.

The secondary effects of import taxes are wide-ranging: they help when applied selectively and carefully; they don’t when applied capriciously and without thought.

The mere fact that high taxes were slapped on phone imports so "phones could be made in the US," only to backtrack mere days later, demonstrates that this is either the work of an insanely bright economist nobody understands, the scheme of a grifter aiming to benefit personally, or the capriciousness of a borderline dementia patient who cannot act rationally.

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#592
post #481

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except tarrifs rarely help any of that: there's already extensive regulations in place to require local sourcing for defence critical components, all the way down the supply chain. And tarriffing imports doesn't make a difference in the case of something like shipbuilding where the real problem is the government hasn't got a consistent order-book to keep factories staffed, operating and training - nor a plan to allow…

> You basically go to war with the military you have. The war in Ukraine shows what a current-day war looks like: You rapidly expend stockpiled traditional weapons, and then rapidly ramp up low-cost drone manufacturing. Currently, the #1 drone manufacturer in the world is probably Ukraine, with Russia and China somewhere in the #2 and #3 spots. The United States is somewhere on the bottom of that list. Subsidising ci…

But Ukraine built that industry after the war started. And the Ukranian conflict is uniquely well suited to drones because of numerous factors which wouldn't apply in say, a fight over Taiwan - where the outcome would more or less be determined by who still had a floating Navy at the end of the day.

No amount of 3D printed FPVs is going to bring down a modern warship - they're unlikely to even get near it (conversely the sea drone threat is enormous - but those aren't civilian assets in anyway, but can be as cheap as "brick on a speed boat throttle").

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#593

May I propose a tinfoil hat perspective on tariffing China: America is prepping the ground for a full war with China. That's the only position that make sense to me other than the obvious "these guys are all corrupt idiots". I don't know which is which but at least the war perspective makes more sense to me. I believe we are at the propaganda stage where allies will be 'encouraged' into adopting similar positions and…

From my conversations with Europeeps...we'll side with China.

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#594
post #338

I’m not seeing anyone discuss this here, so I figured I’d raise an important point: this style of tariffs is crushing for US manufacturing. While a universal tariff with no exceptions incentivizes domestic manufacturing, a selective tariff with specific industry exceptions is absolute poison. You might think, as the authors of this exemption did, “well then we will exempt computer parts.” Then people will simply impo…

Even universal tariffs with no exceptions is a problem. Many things cross US/Canada/Mexico border in the process being manufactured. And tariffs will stack up. Many advanced products (tech/chip, etc) are not entirely made in any single place. Some stuff is imported, and some is exported again, and tariffing the world, will also make the world tariff you. I think this is all around bad. Best case scenario the US has e…

> Can EU countries buy US military equipment, when it turns out that the US will withhold support for equipment we've bought and paid for, in order to pressure a democracy, fighting for its existence, into surrender.

Why would anyone buy US military equipment that's either "10%" handicapped on purpose, or remotely disabled whenever the US changes its feelings about the users of said military equipment?

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#595
post #562

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A free market requires regulations in order to operate. Regulations require a bureaucracy in order to be effective.

> Regulations require a bureaucracy in order to be effective. That's a very European point of view (though not uniquely European, it's also shared across many other cultures, e.g. in East Asia). The US has done pretty well with private rights of action. In fact, because our culture is so conservative and anti-authoritarian, centralized bureaucracies are rather quickly defanged or grossly underfunded. The most recent…

> That's a very European point of view (though not uniquely European, it's also shared across many other cultures, e.g. in East Asia).

No, that's a very Smithian Economics point of view, an economic philosophy which underpinned most of American capitalism's history.

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#596

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 8486 Machines for producing semiconductors & ICs: wafer fab, lithography. Does US buy them from China too?

Unlikely. The exclusions above are for reciprocal tariffs from all countries, i.e. China 0% reciprocal + 20% (fentanyl) + 2018-2024 rates non-China 0% reciprocal

Reciprocal is inaccurate, you should stop using that term - this label was chosen to obfuscate what is going on and confuse those who don't know better.

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#597

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is it exactly. And all the people who are calling Trump a 4cd chess master and a genius are in my opinion highly influenced by his propaganda. They have a Trump Derangement Syndrome in a worship sense.

I’m completely over the tech industry falling over itself to bootlick and apologize away everything we’ve seen play out recently. The Cloudflare CEO, Matthew Prince, recently posted on X trying to explain the strategy and likely calm investors fears: https://x.com/eastdakota/status/1909822463707652192 “They’re not stupid. I know enough of the players involved to know they’re not idiots.” “They’re not just in it for t…

These excerpts and especially your TLDR doesn’t fairly digest his thesis and is a disingenuous and skewed read. Encourage others to read the whole tweet and form their own opinion instead.

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#599

May I propose a tinfoil hat perspective on tariffing China: America is prepping the ground for a full war with China. That's the only position that make sense to me other than the obvious "these guys are all corrupt idiots". I don't know which is which but at least the war perspective makes more sense to me. I believe we are at the propaganda stage where allies will be 'encouraged' into adopting similar positions and…

Unfortunately if this was the plan it massively backfired. By imposing a global tariff the US also hit its allies in the region. This in turn causes these allies to look for trade deals with others in the region, like China.

We have already seen South Korea and Japan announce new trade deals with China. So the US is actually pushing away its allies in the region (which doesn't sound ideal when trying to start a war).

Re: Trump exempts phones, computers, chips from ‘reciprocal’ tariffs

#600

Has the Proton CEO acknowledged just how farcically off base he was when he said the GOP was the party of small businesses?

The thing that’s really been getting to me, is that, I’m liberal, not pro-Trump, but the MAGA American heartland story has been really getting to me. I want to see small business, manufacturing, small town American succeed. And there’s some part of me that thought maybe Trump, as much as I don’t like him, is the thing that is needed to make that happen, but man it seems like he’s really fucking over the people who su…

> small business, manufacturing, small town American succeed

That can only happen if you ban all imports of anything those small business manufacturers would made, and be content with the prices going up so those Americans can really be paid who make those products.

If that is not possible, then it is either slavery, poorly paid illegal immigrants or back to some other low-wage country like we’ve done for the past decades.

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