Bad for consumers, but seems like a very good thing for AMZN? Amazon won't have to compete against the much cheaper Temu, Aliexpress, Shein(?) etc.
Cheaper and better. This country is so painfully stupid. Now I have to pay 2x as much for inferior products, if not the same exact stuff imported by an American company. This alone is probably going to cost me about 1000$ to 2000$ per year. We literally don't make much most of this stuff in the US. For example I just ordered a guitar bag, 15$ direct from China. The same exact bag, made in the same exact factory is go…
Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong
591–600 of 610 posts
Re: Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong
#592This is going to utterly fuck so many R&D projects at my company. We actually do large-scale manufacturing of industrial valves in the USA. But a lot of our prototyping involves working with Chinese suppliers and getting small batches of samples / prototypes / revisions sent in packages on airplanes. I literally do not know how the electrical and firmware engineers will do their jobs now if we cannot receive packages…
Only if "utterly fucked" somehow means you can still pay a bit more to DHL and get packages even faster than USPS. Your fast prototypes coming by air freight likely aren't routed through USPS at all unless it's the last leg of a consolidated shipment that's broken apart once it reaches the US. Those would be using some other carrier to get them from China to the US and then USPS only inside the US. USPS all the way f…
Re: Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong
#593Earlier quoted context omitted.
> You metaphorically need to invent the universe to make it work in the US. You didnt answer the obvious question of the why things are the way they are now? US used to have their entire electronic supply chain, save from raw materials, in USA in the 70s... So why cant US build its own Shenzhen or Hong Kong? taxes? corporate taxes are relatively low in some US states, infrastructure? US has all the infrastructure nee…
Shenzhen is a Special Economic Zone and Hong Kong is/was a major hub for finance. People used to say, "China didn't take Hong Kong, Hong Kong took Shenzhen". It would be hard to replicate the opportunity of Deng's liberalizations being new and adjacent to a major center for finance. It would be like having Manhattan across the bay from an untapped backwater like rural Mississippi and have Mississippi declare, "anythi…
I suggest you watch American Factory (https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9351980/) to completely disabuse yourself of this notion.
Re: Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong
#594Earlier quoted context omitted.
Thank you @dang for the in-depth and thoughtful information communicated in those links. You put a lot of effort and dedication into taking care of HN. Really appreciate that Given how much has happened and come out in the last 48hrs alone. I would say there is a big unprecedented Major Ongoing Topic (MOT) The MOT is the coup going on. You might call it something else, but you can definitely group a lot of the politi…
I hear you, but I don't feel that HN is that influential, and I feel like what influence it does have would evaporate if we tried to use it. HN works best as a place to meander, with unspecified side effects. Since some people perceive discussion quality to be (relatively) high on HN, they often want to redirect its focus to things that are more important to them (such as urgent public issues or, less loftily, promot…
YC itself is finding itself in the midst (or outskirts) of several current political discussions including associated ventures and personnel.
HN is also sufficiently of general interest that the New Yorker ran a profile on its moderators a few years back, as you may recall ;-)
Re: Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong
#595Re: Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong
#596Earlier quoted context omitted.
Shenzhen is a Special Economic Zone and Hong Kong is/was a major hub for finance. People used to say, "China didn't take Hong Kong, Hong Kong took Shenzhen". It would be hard to replicate the opportunity of Deng's liberalizations being new and adjacent to a major center for finance. It would be like having Manhattan across the bay from an untapped backwater like rural Mississippi and have Mississippi declare, "anythi…
> The higher cost of [US] labor could be offset by higher [US] worker productivity. I suggest you watch American Factory ( https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9351980/ ) to completely disabuse yourself of this notion.
Chinese engineer (in amazement) "You are allowed to do that?"
Yah, I need to watch that again.
Re: Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong
#597Earlier quoted context omitted.
Chinese government only thinks in terms of months, not forever. Why do you think they overbuilt housing and crashed the economy? It's because the government officials want to quickly cash out and escape to other countries.
Wasn't the housing crisis mostly the Chinese middle class trying to secure their savings from inflation by investing in real state?
Land sales/leases are one of the few ways the local governments can make money, so they overdid approvals and subsidies.
The Communist party also imposed strict capital controls so the middle class couldn't invest worldwide. Combine that with a cultural desire for housing, and you have a huge over investment in Chinese housing.
Re: Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong
#598This is going to utterly fuck so many R&D projects at my company. We actually do large-scale manufacturing of industrial valves in the USA. But a lot of our prototyping involves working with Chinese suppliers and getting small batches of samples / prototypes / revisions sent in packages on airplanes. I literally do not know how the electrical and firmware engineers will do their jobs now if we cannot receive packages…
>I literally do not know how the electrical and firmware engineers will do their jobs now if we cannot receive packages from China As a software engineer who works closely with electrical and firmware engineers I know what you are saying is completely true. The question is how did we let it go this far? Why has there never been serious Western alternatives to JLCPCB, PCBWay, JLCCNC etc.? Has anyone asked themselves h…
Re: Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong
#599Earlier quoted context omitted.
Shenzhen is a Special Economic Zone and Hong Kong is/was a major hub for finance. People used to say, "China didn't take Hong Kong, Hong Kong took Shenzhen". It would be hard to replicate the opportunity of Deng's liberalizations being new and adjacent to a major center for finance. It would be like having Manhattan across the bay from an untapped backwater like rural Mississippi and have Mississippi declare, "anythi…
> The higher cost of [US] labor could be offset by higher [US] worker productivity. I suggest you watch American Factory ( https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9351980/ ) to completely disabuse yourself of this notion.
>Among major economies and regions, the United States has the highest rate of production of goods and services per hour worked, with only a few small European economies outperforming it. Productivity rates in most parts of the world are well below the US’. Indeed, according to research conducted by The Conference Board, nearly 75% of the global population lives in economies where productivity rates are below the global average of US$21.6 per hour worked.
Of course, it may be reasonable to suspect that at least some of these productivity gaps are a result of different sectors which are served, ie manufacturing vs. services.
https://jacobin.com/2020/02/american-factory-julia-reichert-...
>A day before she quoted Marx at the Oscars, Jacobin briefly chatted with American Factory co-director Julia Reichert about her democratic socialism and long history on the Left.
>At Saturday’s Film Independent Spirit Awards ceremony Julia Reichert mentioned “income inequality” during her best documentary acceptance speech for American Factory. The first film released by Barack and Michelle Obama’s Higher Ground Productions, American Factory is about a Chinese capitalist who reopens a closed plant in Ohio, employing thousands of American workers.
https://www.imdb.com/review/rw5946906/
>The only effective means of worker power is through unionizing, and both Chinese and American executives resist it mightily, using pages from the exact same playbook, like targeting leaders and paying for propaganda campaigns. In a sense, the American executives going overseas was like finding a pool of scabs to cross the picket line. As one of the state congressmen observes in speaking to the workers, corporate profitability and treating workers respectfully via a living wage are not incompatible things, and it's shameful that they're treated that way out of unfettered greed in extreme capitalism. (Hmm, if only there was an international labor organization, lol)
>>The issues are in regulatory compliance, demands from politicians and unions. As soon as a major project is announced, the demands start flowing in.
Without getting into the weeds of the documentary's agenda or methods of argumentation - it isn't hard to see that the same methods employed on the mainland with low productivity per worker, will not magically produce different results in the US. Higher productivity, along with higher wages may require automating much of the production process. This may be more capital intensive up-front.
Re: Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong
#600Earlier quoted context omitted.
Surely these days much of that is done by robots? And will only be increasingly robotic with advances in AI.
The degree of automation affects this very little, for 2 reasons: - Anything you can easily automate (like pick & place machines for electronics, industrial robots for welding/assembly) will be automated anyway (no advantage for the US as location there) - Even if you have 100% automation, you still need to pay (mainly) local workforce to set the whole thing up, and a lot of those jobs are even less competitive in th…