Is the world becoming uninsurable? • Hacker News Board

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#591

Post by Waterluvian » Fri, Jan 17, 2025, 3:02 PM UTC

Something neat about the insurance industry is that it seems to be immune to irrationality. Whether or not someone believes in climate change, premiums are a function of actual measured risk. If risk goes up, premiums go up.

And because being accurate at assessing risk is directly connected to company performance, they’re likely one of the best places to go to get your finger on the pulse of what’s actually happening.

The one time this falls apart is when the government puts their finger on the scale and creates insurance that runs at a loss so that people can keep rebuilding in practically uninsurable locales.

I guess another nice thing about this is that the insurance company and you both have aligned incentives. Neither of you want to see claims being made. So they really care that you’re doing whatever you can to reduce risk.

I bet some of this is wrong, based on an incomplete read of the system, so please educate me. :)

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#592

Post by hb-robo » Fri, Jan 17, 2025, 3:02 PM UTC

igravious wrote: post #361

phtrivier wrote: post #325

Former CEO of AXA, a major French insurer, famously announced that a world at +4°C would be "uninsurrable" [1]. That was 10 years ago. It's true that most predictions about climate are wrong - most of the time, they're optimistic. (Not always, fortunately [2]) [1] https://www.leparisien.fr/economie/business/special-cop21-un... [2] https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/emissions-are-no-longer-fo...

+4°C is to the upper end of projections if it did (which is not probable) happen it'd take until the end of the century if we were to get there the entire world will be a different place; everything will have advanced so we won't be insuring our present world with our current knowledge and current tech but a future world with future knowledge and future tech

We're up +1.5C already and it's a polynomial growth. This current figure was also on the "upper end" of projections from 25 years ago.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#593

Post by prmoustache » Fri, Jan 17, 2025, 3:03 PM UTC

_yb2s wrote: post #582

prmoustache wrote: post #568

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In cusco basin in Peru spanish colons realized their brick made building were falling down at every earthquake. They also realized incas building made of thin walls built on top of large stones that can move relative to each others during an earthquake were resisting much better. They then decided to reuse the foundations of incas buildings and put their brick build constructions on top of it to have earthquake resis…

I don’t know but do they have ~7.9 earthquakes like California? I’ll bet they were not multi story homes with vaulted ceilings, giant glass windows with tons of natural light, and efficient insulation? Wood is extremely cheap, and extremely earthquake resistant… it is an appropriate material for the area despite a slightly higher fire risk.

They have had up to ~9.0Mw earthquakes in their history. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_in_Peru

You can also look at some states like Chiapas in Mexico. There are daily earthquakes in Tuxla. Last 8.2 was in 2017 in Tapachula. They typically live in small building made of mud bricks and stones. https://earthquakelist.org/mexico/chiapas/#all-latest-earthq...

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#594

Post by EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK » Fri, Jan 17, 2025, 3:06 PM UTC

spicyusername wrote: post #456

epolanski wrote: post #437

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm always baffled at the fact that Americans don't build houses out of bricks. I read those arguments of the advantages this method has, especially financial ones, but to me it's nonsense considering that it would prevent an endless number of problems that cause the total loss. I still remember when New Orleans was hit with by Katrina, large parts of the suburbs where houses where made by wood and plastic where dest…

Building out of wood is cheap and perfectly strong for most areas. Engineering is always a set of trade-offs.

It's mostly that there is virtually no one in America who knows how to build with concrete/bricks.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#595

Post by lazystar » Fri, Jan 17, 2025, 3:07 PM UTC

prmoustache wrote: post #578

I think the best solution is to own much less. People keep wanting to live in huge space that they barely use, then buy a fuckton of appliances they use once or twice a month at the maximum and hoard stuff like there is no tomorrow. Then they cry when they lose everything or that nobody want to insure their pile of crap. Just insure the minimum to live comfortably. It is much lower than what you can think of. Since I…

> Then they cry when they lose everything

Yes, that's a normal human response. It's ok to have emotions.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#596

Post by crawftv » Fri, Jan 17, 2025, 3:07 PM UTC

pclmulqdq wrote: post #561

chillfox wrote: post #525

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s possible that solve the hurricane problems with proper building regulations and lower the risk of huge wildfires with controlled burning. But the US as always prefers to pretend that there’s nothing to be done when other parts of the world has figured it out. We have cyclones here similar to the hurricanes in the US and usually it just blows over some trees maybe causes a power outage. The absolute worst I have…

As the governments in the US get increasingly incompetent, insurance prices are going to have to rise. Government services are largely there to protect you during black swan events, so if those services get less and less effective, you're going to need more insurance for those events.

This was the whole issue. California made it illegal for insurance companies to raise rates, so the insurance companies stop renewals. Leaving everybody uninsured. Homeowners couldn't buy insurance at any price.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#597

Post by pastage » Fri, Jan 17, 2025, 3:09 PM UTC

yetihehe wrote: post #545

overflow897 wrote: post #489

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"cooling a living space is always more costly than heating a living space" Man I wish this was true but it definitely isn't in anyplace that gets significantly cold. Heat pumps are super super efficient at cooling but they get less efficient at heating the colder it gets. Humans and appliances create a pretty negligible amount of heat.

Heating is more costly if you use technology created for cooling. When you try to cool a cold space in order to heat hot space, you will have a bad time. You could use electric heater for heating, it should have no problems with heating, but will use more electricity. Or you could use something actually cheaper, like wood or fossil fuels. If you use more expensive method (like electricity) it will be more expensive.

This might be true for you. I have lived with free wood for heating and it was more expensive for me than using a heat pump. What is expensive depends on a lot of factors, political, social, location, time and knowledge. It is not a clear dollar per delta T.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#598

Post by acuozzo » Fri, Jan 17, 2025, 3:09 PM UTC

infecto wrote: post #467

tobyhinloopen wrote: post #283

American, living in area prone to natural disasters: "Is the WHOLE WORLD becoming uninsurable?" The answer is obviously "no" since there are other parts of the world that don't live on a hurricane highway nor build houses made from firewood in an area prone to wildfires.

Honest question. Why when people describe wood framed homes do they always phrase it like houses made from "firewood", "sticks", "twigs" etc? It at least for me always detracts from the argument at hand. You could just as easily build a wood framed home with an exterior shell that is fire resistant using modern materials or brick.

For me it's the result of pent-up anger from the popularity of drywall and particle board here in the US.

It's not a big leap to go from complaining about the furniture and the walls being made from what seems like highly compressed dust to also complaining that underneath it all is a bunch of sticks.

It so often feels like a house of cards.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#599

Post by jhbadger » Fri, Jan 17, 2025, 3:11 PM UTC

_yb2s wrote: post #529

tzs wrote: post #482

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Japan is probably not a good comparison for home insurance because houses in Japan typically only have a 20 to 30 year lifespan. After that they are usually torn down and a new house is built.

Why would anyone tear down a 20 year old house? Where I live the houses are 80-100 years old and they’re better built and nicer to live in than most newer homes.

Basically houses in Japan are treated like cars -- as something that doesn't appreciate in value as in most places but rather depreciate over time. Some of this is maybe cultural from the time when houses in Japan were literally constructed with paper.

https://www.learnedinjapan.com/no-buy-home-japan/

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#600

Post by _yb2s » Fri, Jan 17, 2025, 3:11 PM UTC

Macha wrote: post #556

_yb2s wrote: post #529

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would anyone tear down a 20 year old house? Where I live the houses are 80-100 years old and they’re better built and nicer to live in than most newer homes.

The traditional materials used in Japanese construction of everyday homes aren't really in the "built to last" category: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i1DP5xpM3Y8 . In some cases, trying to make a house that was resistant to floods, fires and earthquakes at the same time would have been prohibitively expensive. I'm sure that led to forming habits that have continued into more modern eras of building styles where it…

Interesting, thanks! The regulatory explanation makes a lot of sense- I once tried to pull a permit to install a ceiling fan in a small USA town, and it was a nightmare.