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Fusion energy breakthrough by Livermore Lab

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591–600 of 833 posts

Re: Fusion energy breakthrough by Livermore Lab

#591

After a few more major breakthroughs we'll be where fission was in 1942 after Fermi made the first man made neutron chain reaction. After that, we can see what a practical electricity producing plant looks like, and see how much people actually care about small amounts of tritium radiation. At the moment fuel costs in fission are like 5-10% of total costs for a fission fleet. In fusion it could be lower, but that wil…

Much of fissions complexity comes from safety/damage management. Even after years of advancements we hear about some incidents and radioactive leaks every other decade. Fusion is a much safer alternative both in incidents and fallout

Is it? Well I guess it is because we don't have a working fusion power reactor yet so the likelihood of an accident is zero. However, if we did have a fusion reactor it would be producing a lot more radioactive waste than a fission reactor.

I definitely wouldn't want to make any broad sweeping statements about something that hasn't been built yet.

Re: Fusion energy breakthrough by Livermore Lab

#592

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Back then they were comparing to the energy actually absorbed by the fusion fuel. This is indirect drive, the laser hits a metal container first and only some of the energy gets to the fuel pellet. This time, they're comparing to the total energy in the laser beams. They're ignoring the inefficiency of the laser devices, but that kinda makes sense because they're using really old, inefficient lasers and much better o…

> This time, they're comparing to the total energy in the laser beams. How do you know? Nothing has been published yet; it’s science through press release. In the past, published papers from NIF have been a real wake-up call after absorbing the misleading hype (the papers are most honest than the folks taking to the reporters).

Fair point, I'm just going by the article:

> The fusion reaction at the US government facility produced about 2.5 megajoules of energy, which was about 120 per cent of the 2.1 megajoules of energy in the lasers

I guess we'll see how things develop. But from a quick google, 2.1 megajoules is about what the lasers deliver, unless they've significantly increased their power recently.

Re: Fusion energy breakthrough by Livermore Lab

#593
post #586

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Batteries, pumped hyrdo, compressed air energy storage, hydrogen, the (large and growing) EV fleet, thermal energy storage

Batteries have had a lot of problems meeting capacity as a storage solution. Pumped Hydro is pretty good but highly location dependent, Gravity and compressed air I believe show a lot of promise. I don't know enough about Hydrogen or thermal storage to comment. But we are no where near actually solving the energy storage needs to use solar and wind exclusively. Unless we demonstrate real breakthroughs in production r…

The best storage solution is to offset normal hydro generation to build up capacity to be released when you have unmet demand. That massively changes the need for storage because dams are already storing months worth of energy so shifting demand within the day is effectively free barring possibly adding some turbines.

Globally 16% of electricity is produced by traditional hydro annually that can cover the majority of the projected need for storage in a pure wind/solar grid.

Also, by the time we need significant batteries the costs will have fallen even further. If you want to eventually cover 10% of the grids daily demand from batteries using projected costs from 2030 to 2040+ it doesn’t look unreasonable.

Re: Fusion energy breakthrough by Livermore Lab

#594

Very disappointed by the discourse in this HN thread. The same old quips over and over. "NIF is just a nuclear stewardship program", "it's not actually generating power", "fusion still 30 years away". I think it's very clear, given the past year that NIF has had, that they are very rapidly approaching a point where we have the tech to "solve" inertial fusion. https://lasers.llnl.gov/news/papers-presentations Getting…

There is nothing disappointing in skepticism about the importance or value of this work.

1. It is, purely, bomb research dressed up as civilian activity for funding purposes. Everyone working on it has top-secret clearance.

2. It has no consequence for any civilian project. The target that produced a couple of MJ cost $10M. (2.4 MJ is 3. Extracting useful energy would require capturing hot neutrons in a "blanket", heating it up, and running fluid through it to boil water to drive a steam turbine. The minimum practical size for such a "blanket" exceeds that of a large fission plant. To collect enough neutrons to be useful requires a huge volume of plasma, as even compressed plasma is very diffuse vs. fissiles.

4. Compressing the plasma with superconducting magnets could increase density, but then the neutron flux through the smaller surface area of the chamber wall would destroy it that much more quickly.

5. The hot neutron flux would also quickly weaken the structural parts required to contain the enormous forces exerted by the electromagnetic coils. Superconducting coils would impose even larger stresses. No research has gone into identifying a viable material, in decades, despite that none is known. After a short time the reactor parts would all become weak and (also) fiercely radioactive. Repairs would need robots not yet designed.

6. Civil fusion would require a large amount of tritium, which no one knows how to make economically.

7. Steam turbines cost a lot to operate, regardless of heat source. No other generation method relying on such steam turbines -- coal, fission, geo -- is today competitive vs. renewables. As the cost of renewables continues on down, they get less competitive by the day.

Fusion is intrinsically interesting, just not for power generation.

One company, Helion, is trying to make a fusion device that does not emit many hot neutrons. However, achieving conditions for this process, D-3He, is even harder than for D-T fusion. They hope to breed their own tritium, which would eventually decay to the 3He they actually need, but it is not clear how they will produce enough. (Fun fact, 3He loves to turn back into tritium.)

If they cannot, but they do get it working, it might end up usable for outer solar system exploration, which is difficult to power.

This "milestone" provides exactly zero meaningful information for the magnetic confinement fusion that is the only avenue being pursued for civil power.

Fusion offers no prospect of "unlimited free energy". It offers instead very expensive energy, or possibly none at all. We already have access to unlimited free energy, and need only build out the solar, wind, and maybe tidal systems to collect some as it goes by.

Re: Fusion energy breakthrough by Livermore Lab

#595

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Onshore wind can overlap with pasture land. Offshore wind pays into the public purse now via the leases and still costs about half what subsidised nuclear does. It's still a very young industry.

seriously.. bring some evidence. onshore wind is just not going to happen it just has too many problems. and offshore wind is more expensive, less reliable and takes roughly the same time to build as nuclear. Denmark is currently planning to build a 3Gw energy island that will cost a whopping 40bn dollars and is planed to be finished in 2033. insane if you ask me

6GW initially with the expensive part done for upto 10GW, €28 billion, and 2030.

That is insane. They're building a FOAK project for less than NOAK nuclear reactors like Hinkley C in less time and it will be generating at higher capacity from day one than new nukes manage for their first decade or so of operation. Nice pro wind factoid.

More power, sooner, with low enough O&M that you could build another one with the money you saved just during the time it would take for another EPR to be built and come to full power? Sign me up.

Re: Fusion energy breakthrough by Livermore Lab

#596

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Before ignition, very little science had been explored in the "burning plasma" regime. Now that ignition had been figured out, an entire new field of experimentation has been opened up. https://www.llnl.gov/news/three-peer-reviewed-papers-highlig... In particular, the original article talks about magnetic compression hypothesis being a byproduct of white dwarf simulation. With this new regime, they were able to apply…

"magnetic compression hypothesis being a byproduct of white dwarf simulation" That is the coolest thing I'll read all month.

Well, it does happen sometimes - a Nobel price laureate who worked on Pulsar also developed a popular amateur radio modulation that works under the noise floor and makes regular trans-continental connections possible with essentially a cheap SDR and a piece of wire.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/FT8

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Hooton_Taylor_Jr.

Re: Fusion energy breakthrough by Livermore Lab

#597

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone suggesting the organization which made these predictions about solar https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOoa6xYXIAQKUnv?format=jpg&name=... and is headed by an ex OPEC employee might be making bad cost projections when real prices of real projects in 2022 have a median far lower than their projection from 2020? Must be a conspiracy theorist.

solar is fine in some places for some usecases and yes it's very cheap to add, but we've currently got no viable solution for storing the energy efficiently.

The current technology mix is capable of meeting more of electrical demand than nuclear has ever achieved at lower cost with zero storage https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-26355-z

It is also perfectly capable of meeting dispatchable loads like heating, chemical production, and EV charging, and adding them to the grid will bring the ability to meet electricity even higher. Considering the storage and dispatchable low carbon energy that already exists, the remaining part would produce less carbon than would be released by expanding Uranium mining.

There is not enough uranium to meet 50% of world electricity demand using current technology for long enough to wear out a single generation of wind turbines or solar panels.

Your imaginary all nuclear future is both impossoble and worse than the trajectory we are currently on.

Re: Fusion energy breakthrough by Livermore Lab

#598

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the case of the Wright Brothers, most people didn't even believe it. One factor at work was that they'd been primed by years of Respected Scientists saying that it was physically impossible. The newspapers didn't cover it until random people started asking why the feats they'd seen with their own eyes weren't being written about. https://www.wright-brothers.org/History_Wing/Aviations_Attic...

I doubt that 'wright-brothers.org' is a reliable impartial source on that. The idea of heavier than air flight had been around, it wasn't conceived by them. Lilienthal was an earlier well-documented pioneer, there are pictures of his gliders in mid-flight. Just to name one. So without doing further research, the idea that actual scientists at the time thought it was impossible seems highly unlikely to me. As early as…

That's just what I could find quickly on Google, accessible by all.

A few years back I read David McCullough's biography of the Wright Brothers which told the same story: https://www.amazon.com/Wright-Brothers-David-McCullough/dp/1...

This site cites a couple of the pre-Wright naysayers: https://bigthink.com/pessimists-archive/air-space-flight-imp...

Re: Fusion energy breakthrough by Livermore Lab

#599
post #523

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Their most recent article has a ton of great data and next steps: That device in the photo is great. Looks to be about 16AWG magnet wire. Guessing a 10mm ID of the coil, and about 25mm in length. To get to 26 Tesla, looks like you'd need to push about 33,000 A through that coil. Coil inductance might be about 1uH, and if the test lasts ~1us, then you'd need 33kV to push that 33kA through the coil. 30kV/inch insulati…

Yea, the whole target bay is in vacuum which helps with the arcing.

Vacuum is supposed to increase arcing.

People who want to prevent arcing flood the cavity with sulfur hexafluoride. Fun fact, it has 25,000 times the "greenhouse potential" of CO2. Dunno if that includes lifetime in the atmosphere, or just instantaneous opacity to IR. All the wind turbines are pumped full of it. There is an effort on to switch to something else of proprietary composition.

Re: Fusion energy breakthrough by Livermore Lab

#600

Very disappointed by the discourse in this HN thread. The same old quips over and over. "NIF is just a nuclear stewardship program", "it's not actually generating power", "fusion still 30 years away". I think it's very clear, given the past year that NIF has had, that they are very rapidly approaching a point where we have the tech to "solve" inertial fusion. https://lasers.llnl.gov/news/papers-presentations Getting…

There is nothing disappointing in skepticism about the importance or value of this work. 1. It is, purely, bomb research dressed up as civilian activity for funding purposes. Everyone working on it has top-secret clearance. 2. It has no consequence for any civilian project. The target that produced a couple of MJ cost $10M. (2.4 MJ is 3. Extracting useful energy would require capturing hot neutrons in a "blanket", he…

> Everyone working on it has top-secret clearance.

along with 1.3 million others [0]. just sayin'

[0] https://news.clearancejobs.com/2022/08/16/how-many-people-ha...

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