Web3? I have my DAOts

But as you say, one day there might actually be real value here. But here's the rub, this is all decentralized, and thus anyone at any time can create their own chain, and many have already done so. And these technologies might just not need blockchain at all, for instance IPFS looks likely to lose to Torrents.

So why would I buy a piece of an existing chain, when I can just wait for the technology to be created and spin it off on a new chain, for a price of $nearly_free instead of $massive? This is not the same as investing in Google or Amazon in 1999. If I am buying into the coin for the utility and not for the hype, I would never touch a mainstream coin. If a AAA game were to create their own NFTs, they would do so on their own chain. I would generate my own chain to confirm my own identity.

No coin that currently exists has a long-term value above $0.

But as far as I understand it's all some variation on "we're going to anchor something on the slow, expensive, trustworthy chain that represents a promise that we're going to settle stuff over here and report back to the big, slow, expensive but trusted chain".

Often that anchor is some variation of a multi-sig custodial wallet with a bunch of blockchain bigshots on it, i.e. a fucking bank. If people want to evade banking regulations that's their business, but calling it cryptographic novelty is stupid.

Sometimes it's "we're going to settle transactions on some shard, so it doesn't matter that it's somewhere between a slow wristwatch and a fast potato in terms of throughput", in which case the people I want to transact with need to participate in that shard, in which case you've got Metcalfe's Law working against you: you're on the wrong side of the polynomial. I want to buy some shit from merchant $FOO but they're not on my shard. Damn, guess I need to route some $COIN up through the real chain and down to the shard where my pot dealer is.

The point is that if the thing you were deferring the transaction onto was both trustworthy and scalable, then you'd just use that. It's this non-terminating recursion where each invocation of the Y-combinator kicks off a fat token offering. Which is why the Lightening whitepaper is now $ZILLION pages long when it started at 18: every hole they patch creates 3 more.

IO-HK is somewhere south of RenTech and somewhere north of NASA in terms of the Nobel laureates they've got working on Ouroboros [BFT|Praus|Genesis]? and they can't get it to work: ADA is getting pushed around a warmed-over Tendermint still (really fast potato).

The ParityTech people seem to have learned the hard way that Google barely made it fly with friggin cesium clocks and satellites in a non-Byzantine setting when they put together BABE [BADASS|SASAFRASS|WHATEVER]? and slapped GRANDPA on it. Ethereum v2 gets delayed with roughly the same cadence as viable fusion power (but Casper the FFG!).

If someone knows how to do a chain that's truly secure, truly decentralized, and doesn't cost $500 to buy a $5 ENS domain then I missed that paper.

If you know of a project that actually works I want in on the governance token. It'll make BTC look like a victim of hyperinflation.

There is clearly an asset bubble in cryptocurrencies. But I'm borderline weirded out by how singled-out the crypto asset bubble is compared to say, the US equities asset bubble, or residential real-estate asset bubble, or any of the other places that we're warehousing major currencies inflation. It doesn't really matter if you look at `SPY`, or the Qs, or just one of the FAANGs: from right before the COVID overreaction to the present day a dollar (which hasn't really slipped all that badly against any of its easing-addled peers) buys you about half the amount of Big Tech as it did on Jan 1 2020. Nothing Earth-shattering has happened to the business models or 5-year outlooks of any of these companies. The smartphone market is every bit as saturated as it was 2 years ago. The FB/IG feed ad load is no less maxed out, Waymo isn't running 10MM pilot level 5 autonomous taxi rides across 50 cities in 20 countries, and Elon Musk sure as hell hasn't colonized Mars (at least his stated ambition justifies a PE ratio in the hundreds: he's on record that he's trying to own a planet).

So I'd argue that Apple stock hasn't 2-3x increased in the last 2 years in any other way than dollar-denominated.

I'm the last person to try to sell you a cryptocurrency token, I don't give a shit what the price of ETH is. But just because Gamestonk or `ETH` is the lottery ticket available to people who don't know a guy who knows a guy who knows Ron Conway doesn't mean that going to school, working hard, and saving a quarter of every paycheck is going to get you anywhere in a casino economy where the CPI doesn't seem to move with the cost of healthcare or education or any of the shit that's really eating the working person alive (at least in the US).

`BTC` and `ETH` may turn out to be worthless tulip bulbs, it's not even all that unlikely from a Bayesian standpoint, but the pervasive implication that the `/r/crypto` people are at a casino and the A16Z people aren't is absurd. The A16Z people can just afford to lose a hand or two, and the `/r/crypto` people have nothing to lose.

Doesn't make em stupid.

Asking because I don't know, and because I suspect it takes longer than I'd like if I'm trying to get my payment in first to secure the item (like I have had to do when buying used cars from private parties.)