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The August 17 outage

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Re: The August 17 outage

#581

Post by rimliu »

rfgplk wrote: post #572
sph wrote: post #559

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's starting to become a cliché to have people reply "I'm getting a lot more done", but without seeing any evidence of this incredible productivity gains, I'm starting to wonder if y'all are suffering from collective hallucination. If the accepted claims are of "100x productivity" (increasing by the day), and LLMs have gotten very good for the past ~year, for sake of argument, where are the 100 year improvements in…

> I could have accepted people saying "I'm 20% more productive", which is an incredible achievement by itself, but not the 10x, 20x, 100x I keep hearing about. I think I've read 200x this week. The ratios are factual though. Just look at the "Insights" tab of any LLM written project. https://github.com/oven-sh/bun/pulse This kind of velocity is impossible to achieve manually.

velocity - maybe. usefulness? Maybe even easier. As they say data is not information. Commits are not (necessarily) anything useful.

Re: The August 17 outage

#582

Post by rimliu »

fartfeatures wrote: post #464
asdfsa32 wrote: post #451

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You may be confusing articulate and confident with useful and accurate.

They really aren't. AI commit messages are much more thorough and correct than some of the stuff I've seen humans do over the years e.g. Fix, Fixup, Fixed some Stuff, Should work now, Definitely should work now etc etc etc.

Nah, most often they are just long-winded beatings around the bush.

Re: The August 17 outage

#583

Post by zingar »

rfgplk wrote: post #572
sph wrote: post #559

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's starting to become a cliché to have people reply "I'm getting a lot more done", but without seeing any evidence of this incredible productivity gains, I'm starting to wonder if y'all are suffering from collective hallucination. If the accepted claims are of "100x productivity" (increasing by the day), and LLMs have gotten very good for the past ~year, for sake of argument, where are the 100 year improvements in…

> I could have accepted people saying "I'm 20% more productive", which is an incredible achievement by itself, but not the 10x, 20x, 100x I keep hearing about. I think I've read 200x this week. The ratios are factual though. Just look at the "Insights" tab of any LLM written project. https://github.com/oven-sh/bun/pulse This kind of velocity is impossible to achieve manually.

That’s a measure of lines of code, I suspect the parent is talking about what results those LOC create.

AI built me a 1.5k+ LOC react component which is probably a 15x increase on the file size I would have created, with negative impact on the project for those extra LOC.

Re: The August 17 outage

#584

Post by zingar »

agumonkey wrote: post #570
sph wrote: post #559

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's starting to become a cliché to have people reply "I'm getting a lot more done", but without seeing any evidence of this incredible productivity gains, I'm starting to wonder if y'all are suffering from collective hallucination. If the accepted claims are of "100x productivity" (increasing by the day), and LLMs have gotten very good for the past ~year, for sake of argument, where are the 100 year improvements in…

I've heard people use the same word, I was dubious but they did produce some stuff, yet I think that it ends up as an itch-project. You're satisfied you saw the thing emerge into existence but that's about it. No more drive after that. Maybe because LLM don't require you to have a real long term intense need for that thing.

This is exactly my experience. A month of excitement building something that I wouldn’t have had time to do myself, then something broke in the setup and my motivation didn’t extend to fixing it.

I’m only back at it four months later and I don’t really know what happened before, or why it’s working now, I’m just happy that I can scratch that itch again.

Re: The August 17 outage

#585

Post by zingar »

xeromal wrote: post #481
brookst wrote: post #462

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m getting a lot more done. Hobby projects that languished for years are coming along great, at quality and depth I could never have found time for before.

Same. Helping family out when I generally was too tired to do it earlier. They're all very happy too

I’m curious, what was the application of AI that helped the family?

Re: The August 17 outage

#586

Post by zingar »

ozgung wrote: post #508
m4rtink wrote: post #417

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So much more stuff and growing- what it is actually useful for ? Are we getting actually more done than with previous volumes or is it just all wasted energy?

Has anyone noticed an increase in the quality, performance or capabilities of the software they use?

My unsupervised agentic setup has built something that I wanted for decades but never built, so I guess that’s an increase in capabilities.

Re: The August 17 outage

#587

Post by wwqrd »

sph wrote: post #559
brookst wrote: post #462

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m getting a lot more done. Hobby projects that languished for years are coming along great, at quality and depth I could never have found time for before.

It's starting to become a cliché to have people reply "I'm getting a lot more done", but without seeing any evidence of this incredible productivity gains, I'm starting to wonder if y'all are suffering from collective hallucination. If the accepted claims are of "100x productivity" (increasing by the day), and LLMs have gotten very good for the past ~year, for sake of argument, where are the 100 year improvements in…

> where are the 100 year improvements in the status quo of software?

Most software work is just churn / doing the same thing over and over. More productivity can just mean more output, not better output.

Re: The August 17 outage

#588

Post by bblb »

eddieh wrote: post #553
bdlowery wrote: post #503

Earlier quoted context omitted.

you seem to be uninformed. This should help: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_c6MWk7PQc

A link to a YouTube video without context e.g. summary of findings, primary author/creators, and primary citations, methodology, and so on is a next to useless for making a point. For all we know you’re linking to a crackpot or an industry sock puppet and I don’t care to “watch” any of what can potentially be a dubious video or worse a malicious video. It is your job as the linker to convince me the video is worth ev…

"I know nothing about the subject, but I would _guess_ that the power consumption is bigger concern than the reported and studied water usage."

That's the whole 21 minute 59 second video in a nutshell.

A loud and hectic quick cut rambling video essay. Millions of views, naturally.

Re: The August 17 outage

#589

Post by vincnetas »

sph wrote: post #559
brookst wrote: post #462

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m getting a lot more done. Hobby projects that languished for years are coming along great, at quality and depth I could never have found time for before.

It's starting to become a cliché to have people reply "I'm getting a lot more done", but without seeing any evidence of this incredible productivity gains, I'm starting to wonder if y'all are suffering from collective hallucination. If the accepted claims are of "100x productivity" (increasing by the day), and LLMs have gotten very good for the past ~year, for sake of argument, where are the 100 year improvements in…

The analogy here would be : a kid who wants a toy but does not have money. So he keeps dreaming how he some day would get that toy and how he would play with it and how it would make him happy, but times goes by and he still does not have money to get that toy. Then suddenly along comes LLM and you have infinite money to buy you all the toys that you wanted, you get them, but you now don't have time to play with them. Because time is money and just like before you didn't had time to "buy" the toys, now that you have them you still have no time to play with them.

Re: The August 17 outage

#590

Post by haul_up »

The distinction between running out of capacity and collapsing when you run out of capacity is exactly right. Every distributed system hits limits, the question is what happens next.
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