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Elon Musk has lost his lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI

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Re: Elon Musk has lost his lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI

#581

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If I had been on the jury, I would have found ... No, you wouldn't. The case was thrown out of court before you have any chance to comment or decide on that. Jury don't randomly "found" something. The court ask questions, the Jury answers those.

Juries are the "finders of fact". That's the phrase often used anyway.

How Jury in USA work is: Judge ask a question, Jury tell the count what they found the "fact" is, based on what is presented in court.

They just can't "found" something when they are not asked. If you tell the count you found something because you saw something outside the court, that would consider invalid.

Re: Elon Musk has lost his lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI

#582

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The value of flight is incalculable. Especially if we see it as a precursor to satellites. A lot of people invested a lot in getting g it to work. Many people died making it better and better. The cost in treasure and lives was substantial, but the return is worth it. Contrast to the moon. The prestige was great, the investment enormous. The return was more-or-less zero. There was a reason Apollo 18 was canceled, and…

The value of the first Mars colony may be zero depending on how you value it just as the value of the first Wright flier was 'precisely zero' or even negative. It didn't carry cargo and it killed or injured many of those that dared to fly on it. Assigning zero long term value however to another entire planet worth of resources just seems like a failure of imagination. You can't get to the 777 without the Wright Flyer…

I'd add to this that Mars also isn't the end, but rather the beginning. The moment the first human steps on Mars, we will already be thinking ever more outward to ever more exotic targets, perhaps Europa being next. The bigger picture is starting the process of putting humans into the cosmos - and so it's not just another planet full of resources, land, and unknown discoveries awaiting us - but an entire solar system, and on a longer time frame - an entire galaxy.

And I think once we start iterating on these concepts, the timelines might not be as long as might otherwise be expected. Forget the 777 - it's completely stupefying that we went from the Wright Flier to the SR-71 Blackbird [1] in 61 years. That beast is another product of the magic of the 60s - long-term sustained flight at Mach 3.2 - 2450+mph. London to New York in less than 2 hours. There really was something in the water in the US in the 60s.

[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_SR-71_Blackbird

Re: Elon Musk has lost his lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI

#584
post #564

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A order of magnitude is a factor of 10x. Multiple orders of magnitude is at least 100x. SpaceX Falcon 9 has a launch cost of 74 M$ with a payload to LEO of 22,800 kg for a launch cost of ~3,200 $/kg to LEO. So you are incorrectly claiming that space launch costs were 320,000 $/kg. Elon Musk is a habitual liar, but you should try not to be one as well as it demonstrates your argument to be based in ignorance and decep…

Falcon Heavy reusable is the most $ efficient system at around $1500 $/kg. The Space Shuttle costs were $54,000 $/kg. If you want to nitpick that that's "only" a 97% cost reduction instead of a 99%... well that's the sort of good faith debate I've come to expect from the aforementioned vocal minority in any topic related to Elon, and with all the class you've already demonstrated in your post.

Why are you deceptively bringing up the Space Shuttle? That was never intended to be a serious cost-effective launch vehicle. Also, why are you deceptively talking about 97% and 99% like the difference between 30x and 100x is not a factor of 3?

The Ariane 5, first launching in 2003 which is 7 years earlier than the first Falcon 9 launch, had a launch cost of ~150 M$ in 2015 with a payload to LEO of ~16,000 kg for a cost of 10,000 $/kg. The Soyuz-2, first launching in 2004 which is 6 years earlier than the first Falcon 9 launch, had a launch cost of ~35 M$ with a payload to LEO of ~8,000 kg for a cost of ~4,500 $/kg.

The truth is 3-6% of your claim of 100x cost improvement.

Re: Elon Musk has lost his lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI

#585

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, it's worth pointing out that the jury was obviously correct. Musk was lying his ass off. There is no possible way to imagine that Elon Musk, the hyper-online dude obsessed with news, AI, and AI news, would not be aware of the well-publicized events of a company he was personally massively invested in.

I'm having a hard time squaring this view with the prediction markets. 500k+ of volume on Polymarket[0] had Elon losing at only even odds until March, 2:1 until May 15th, and 3:1 before the verdict dropped. It seems to have been widely reported from the start[1] and throughout[2] that the statute of limitations was a key thing Musk's team had to prove. If it was so clear, why did people think this case had legs? [0]…

Prediction markets depend on the "wisdom of crowds", but often the crowd doesn't exercise its wisdom--which is generally pretty good--but instead exercises its wishful thinking or desires.

cf: Sports betting.

Re: Elon Musk has lost his lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI

#586
post #550

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe the "Wat." is directed at the mandated-by-laws-of-physics fact that it adds a 2.6 second lag, and that at constant path loss and frequency it requires antennas have 768 times larger diameter (or close enough, the maths works out that it's the distance to moon divided by distance to wherever in LEO your default case is and all the other things involved cancel out). This factor (and that it applies to all EM…

These are good points. I don't really understand your point about the Hubble though that is very interesting. Are you saying that the pictures are too low-res? Still, in the case of massive destruction of satellite communications, having 50% availability for crucial communications (e.g. continuity of government) etc. isn't ideal but is still something. 2.6 second lag is nothing if you aren't talking about real-time c…

> These are good points. I don't really understand your point about the Hubble though that is very interesting. Are you saying that the pictures are too low-res?

Yes. Owing to the laws of physics, the size of the optics and the wavelengths of its sensors, it is limited to a minimum feature size on the moon of about 22 meters (which happens at the limit of it's ultraviolet sensor range, 115 nm, not visible light). To see the Apollo lander as a single pixel, it would need to have a primary mirror with an 11 metre diameter, to see footprints it would need one with a diameter of 150-200m metres. And proportionally even bigger than that for longer wavelengths such as visible light.

> Still, in the case of massive destruction of satellite communications, having 50% availability for crucial communications (e.g. continuity of government) etc. isn't ideal but is still something. 2.6 second lag is nothing if you aren't talking about real-time communications. Issuing strategic military orders isn't sensitive to 2.6 seconds of lag.

Or you could just use all the stuff on the ground. We used radio well before we went to space, and if the cable-based stuff (and line-of-sight microwave towers) isn't secure then neither is the even more critical power grid.

If you're willing to give up real-time comms, then we have a lot of bandwidth available for text messages that's currently being spent on TV.

> You can communicate to half the earth at once, you can maybe replace GPS if all the GPS sats are shot down, etc.

Nope. GPS fundamentally requires you can see at least four different satellites at the same moment. Also, they're in geosynchronous orbit not low orbit, there are at present no reported anti-satellite weapons that can get to geostationary orbit, nor would this be likely due to the energy budget needed to get there. Consider that while getting to LEO essentially requires the equivalent of an intercontinental missile, getting to geostationary requires the equivalent of such a missile whose payload is itself another intercontinental missile.

> Your point about large antennas is taken, but for USG installations, I don't doubt they would invest in a few large antennas.

I think you've not quite taken on board what I said.

768 times larger diameter.

Diameter, not area.

If your ground station is 1 meter across, like some satellite dishes I see, one 768 times larger is about the size of The Pentagon building and its surrounding car park.

While I look forward to us being able to build structures that size (and bigger) on the moon, the SpaceX website for Starship is currently listing prices to the moon of $100 million per metric ton.

Re: Elon Musk has lost his lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI

#587
post #402

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Fool here. What’s the small bit of research I need to do?

Money is created, it's not a fixed sum (as we can tell from inflation) and it's just meant to equate to value added/produced by people. Here's a good starting point:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0

Re: Elon Musk has lost his lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI

#588
post #586

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These are good points. I don't really understand your point about the Hubble though that is very interesting. Are you saying that the pictures are too low-res? Still, in the case of massive destruction of satellite communications, having 50% availability for crucial communications (e.g. continuity of government) etc. isn't ideal but is still something. 2.6 second lag is nothing if you aren't talking about real-time c…

> These are good points. I don't really understand your point about the Hubble though that is very interesting. Are you saying that the pictures are too low-res? Yes. Owing to the laws of physics, the size of the optics and the wavelengths of its sensors, it is limited to a minimum feature size on the moon of about 22 meters (which happens at the limit of it's ultraviolet sensor range, 115 nm, not visible light). To…

Informative, thank you.

Re: Elon Musk has lost his lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI

#589

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm having a hard time squaring this view with the prediction markets. 500k+ of volume on Polymarket[0] had Elon losing at only even odds until March, 2:1 until May 15th, and 3:1 before the verdict dropped. It seems to have been widely reported from the start[1] and throughout[2] that the statute of limitations was a key thing Musk's team had to prove. If it was so clear, why did people think this case had legs? [0]…

Postulate: Prediction markets are not exceptionally good at predicting everything.

If Prediction markets were good at predicting anything, there would be no need for prediction markets (because the future is already clear to everyone).

Re: Elon Musk has lost his lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI

#590

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There will never be a colony on Mars. Not in the way we think about "colonies". For starters it's too cold, too dry, atmosphere is too thin, and there's no reasonably sustainable power source. But all of that is irrelevant because there's no magnetic field. So radiation. So unlivable. There's also no point in a colony there. If life ends on earth it ends on Mars. There are no materials there we want. It offers exactl…

I personally believe that the legacy we send to the stars will be silicon. Robots have landed on Mars. Maybe they will even figure out how to use minerals on Mars to build more of themselves. It is plausible to me that as far as space exploration is concerned that it will be autonomous within a few hundred years.

earth's global ecosystem better not collapse before then -- and we're on track to make that happen
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