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The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

bloomberg.com

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Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#581

Post by mmooss »

kraig911 wrote: post #395
Balgair wrote: post #207

I like to hang out on fertility twitter. It's a strange place. Since the fertility problem is worldwide, you get a lot of ideologies mixing about. There's hardcore CCP folks, free market Mormons, radical Imams, universalist preachers, the whole lot of them. They're all trying to share ideas and jumping on the latest research findings from reputable and crackpot sources. They're all looking for the recipe to get peopl…

It's just hard now. Before I had kids I had a network of friends and had a great social life. Now it's just me and my wife. If I want more friends I'll have to have more kids I guess? I have 4 now. One (my first) is severely autistic. Financially the cost? I pay about 6,000 a month in daycare. 2k a month in healthcare expenses. Then community wise. Every time I've gone to take them to the movies, or to a restaurant o…

> It's just hard now.

I completely sympathize with the challenges, though I don't understand (and might completely misunderstand) the word "now". Do you meant 'in the current world'? What is different that makes it harder? And what defines now - the social media age? Post-WWII?

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#583

Post by alt227 »

ramon156 wrote: post #387

Is this a stupid question? Why do we want high fertility rates anyway? Isn't the world overpopulated?

Yes the world is overpopulated. However a lot of developed societies based their framework for budgets on permanent growth, for example the idea that the young paying tax will always pay for the benefits of the elderly. However with the population rate decreasing, suddenly there is lots of older population expecting things like healthcare and pensions to be paid for them. With less and less young people to cover the cost in tax, there is a looming defecit which is very worrying to a lot of economists.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#584

Post by nancyminusone »

b0rtb0rt wrote: post #481
WhompingWindows wrote: post #430

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What a bizarre comment. Who cares about their genetic line? Are you evolution itself? Do you have stakes in making sure your genes make it to the future?

who cares about their genetic line? literally every human being who has wanted grand children

Hm, seems greedy to me.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#585

Post by Izikiel43 »

dataviz1000 wrote: post #257
Balgair wrote: post #207

I like to hang out on fertility twitter. It's a strange place. Since the fertility problem is worldwide, you get a lot of ideologies mixing about. There's hardcore CCP folks, free market Mormons, radical Imams, universalist preachers, the whole lot of them. They're all trying to share ideas and jumping on the latest research findings from reputable and crackpot sources. They're all looking for the recipe to get peopl…

There is another way to go about this. Statistically immigrants from Latin America have lower crime rates than the average American. It is possible to increase population AND decrease the crime rate by allowing immigrants into the country. Personally, as someone with capital, having people who also work hard for less salary is beneficial. Most native born Americans are much poorer than I am so I understand their fear…

It's a band aid. Sure, first gen immigrants may have more children than locals, but then their children are locals, and they follow the local trend.

Kurgezat video on South Korea fertility explains this.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#586

Post by alt227 »

gorfian_robot wrote: post #440
jedberg wrote: post #327

This is what happens when your population growth is driven by legal immigrants, and then you make your country very unfriendly to legal immigrants by "accidentally" locking them up while at the same time making it really hard for them to become permanent residents. The Olympics have really driven home to me how America is truly a melting pot. When you look at the Olympians from say Greece, you can say "oh those are G…

this is the issue. the US was easily addressing this problem with immigration before the current regime

Surely that meant that the problem was increasing in the coutries they came from?

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#587

Post by tehjoker »

bpt3 wrote: post #228
tehjoker wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

American capitalists and economic planners fret about "Japan Syndrome". To have more productivity and more consumption i.e. GDP growth, you need more people as a core driver. We don't actually need this, we could do fine with a stable population, but capitalism needs to grow or perish. Declining populations are trickier for most economic concepts though. Less labor, less consumption. That said, a slight decline can l…

If you or anyone you care about is or will be elderly and is not financially independent, you should care. This has nothing to do with capitalism; it's a resource allocation problem. We spend inordinate amounts of money on end of life care, and any changes are currently unacceptable to voters.

You're talking about age structure, but overall population age-structure can be adjusted by immigration flows, births, deaths, etc. My point was about the total population number.

You can imagine a steady-state population where the age structure is stable and productivity is high enough to sustain the retirees, trainees, and disabled.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#588

Post by cgsmith »

scottious wrote: post #176
jdlyga wrote: post #68

Once you have a kid, it's obvious why even besides the costs involved. There's not much sense of community, particularly in the white middle class. People are very individualistic and distrusting of others. There's a good reason for some of this, but to have a community you need to be a community member. And that means letting people in, trusting others and being trustworthy, and being out for the group instead of ju…

Every morning I get to my son's school about 10 minutes before the doors open. We arrive by bike and we sit ALONE on the benches near the front door. Meanwhile, the curb is full of extra large SUVs idling with kids just waiting inside the cars. The long line of SUVs extends all through the neighborhood. My son and I are alone because people just won't leave their cars until the doors open. A vast majority of the kids…

This is exactly how it was for me and my family when we lived in Wisconsin. We live in Germany now. Everyone walks to school or bikes - there is community.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#589

Post by anal_reactor »

joewhale wrote: post #429

One factor is that people are obsessed with removing any friction in their life that stands in the way of whatever they believe makes them happy at the end of the day. Which for a lot of the US is just being alone and unbothered with a TV or a phone. Having responsibilities and caring for others is actually good for the human soul. Being inconvenienced is a part of real life. I’m not trying to convince everyone that…

> Which for a lot of the US is just being alone and unbothered with a TV or a phone.

Yes, and I'm tired of pretending otherwise.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#590

Post by mamonster »

appointment wrote: post #568
mamonster wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Horrible fiscal ticking time bomb that ignores the fact that regularization means naturalization over the next 10-15 years and so access to EU healthcare system. The biggest drag on government budgets in EU are socialized healthcare and retirement costs. At this point we know healthcare costs are severely backloaded, with most spending coming out of the last 10 years of someone's life. Regularizing now allows them to…

How much do 0-15 year olds contribute to the economy?

They contribute to GDP spend, but from the fiscal point of view they are a drag. As for actual percentages per country, I think it heavily varies. In EU i think family spending is like 3% of GDP.

The hope is that this drag will either generate higher cash flows later (i.e money spent on education now will allow them to create value for economy later) or reduce outflows later (i.e a child that gets braces and dental health care now won't spend their whole adult life dealing with teeth issues on taxpayer's dime).

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