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American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

kielinstitut.de

581–590 of 814 posts

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#581
in 2020 we lived through the extreme left's remedial lesson in public safety. Now we're living through the MAGA right's remedial lesson in trade policy.

(Most MAGA right know this, don't care, see tariffs as a hammer. But they are hitting all of us)

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#582
post #323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of the main reasons we end up with populist leaders who make decisions not in the interest of their population, but in service of their own pursuit of power, is social media and the attention economy. If people stopped spending hours each day scrolling through Instagram, TikTok, and Facebook feeds, media incentives would change. Journalism would become more thorough and responsible, rather than optimized for outr…

The main reason for populism is that the incumbent governments do a consistently poor job satisfying their constituents' preferences and interests, so people get desperate to find something / someone different that might work better. Always has been, always will be, social media or not. Example: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4230288 We haven't invented a governance structure yet that would be im…

> "Education" is nice and all, but millions of people keep smoking despite the obvious harm and decades of education

I think there’s a missed opportunity for media to make it explicit that by giving their time and attention to these platforms, people are directly generating profit. Way too many assume their involvement has no real effect, but it does. I suspect people would be far less willing to log in if it were clear that each session generates, on average, X dollars in revenue. It’s a business model most people still haven’t fully digested.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#583

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

I have spent my whole life intimately involved with southern Republicans. They will never ever not vote Republican, let alone vote Democrat. It is an identity marker. It doesn’t even really matter what the policies are. They’ll complain for a while, but they will always internalize a Republican policy shift no matter what it is. They used to treat “free market economics” as a religion just 10 years ago. Secondarily,…

This really sounds like the population just isn't ripe for democracy yet. We also had that, this is a major reason why our 1848 revolution failed and why we didn't become a democracy between 1848 and 1918.

So what you actually kind of miss is a nobility that has common sense and class-consciousness of the leading class.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#584

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are using "believed" - past tense. Facts change nothing. This report means nothing. These people still believe. The report is wrong. They are right. The truth is whatever they want it to be, not something out of their control.

In fairness to this report, the report is about tariffs and their impact on...imported goods affected directly by tariffs isn't it? From an overall economic policy standpoint, missing facts that provide context are pretty important especially when you're trying to paint an entire side of the isle as completely brainwashed. Nobody can have a conversation when we create straw men to argue with. Other relevant context:…

> The US trade deficit just hit its lowest points since 2009 due to decreased imports and increased exports, which rose by record amounts.

Why is this positive? And I’m not implying it’s negative either. It’s just a fact sans context on the effect of the market unless you’ve bought the current admins argument that a trade deficit means you’re getting ripped off.

> US Q4 2025 GDP grew by 5.5%, outpacing China at 4.5%. For context, over the last 25 years China averages 8% per year while the US average 2.1% per year.

I can find no mention of Q4 gdp results in your linked source, it appears to be looking at annual gdp rates over years and focusing on the US compared to China and India

> US inflation has continued to slow at 2.7% with core inflation at 2.6%, continuing the trend from the last 2 years under Biden after a huge 9.1% inflation spike in 2022.

Still above the feds target of 2% but it’s good to see it still trending down

> US gas prices continued to trend downward by national average, with significant regional drops. I live in South Carolina and filled up for $2.39 / gallon a couple of days ago.

It’s winter, prices for gas always drop in winter. Your own source shows that we’re still above pre COVID prices

> The price of eggs have come down significantly, to their lowest rates in 4 years.

I’m not sure if I’m reading your source correctly but it appears to be saying eggs are $0.45/ dozen

That seems implausibly low but I can’t find other sources to compare as every source I’m finding has conflicting information internally, and the price given doesn’t match up with the lowest prices even if I multiply it by 12 assuming I misunderstood price per dozen for price per egg

> And the US stock market is at all time highs right now.

Yea but over half of that is mag7 and only propped up by the AI bubble. It’s nice temporarily but all the context around the stock market doesn’t make it look particularly healthy atm.

The economy looks about as healthy as it did in 2024. I think a lot of people’s views on the health of the economy, whether it’s good or bad, are being more influenced by political leanings than by numbers. Fits with the zeitgeist of the era.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#585
post #545

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, they've 'won'. Now they get to own the damage they are inflicting because this isn't going to end well.

I’m not sure they care so long as they maintain their wealth and can insulate themselves.

It's like setting fire to a house and thinking that your room will be the one that is spared. Complete madness.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#586

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How can it be possible that consumers are paying 96% of tariffs that range from 25-100%. Yet inflation has only risen by 0.5 points? Consumption would have to be less than a fifth of what it was a year ago. And why haven’t there been such equally drastic price changes on shelves if whats functionally the entire cost is being passed to consumer?

Ask your question the other way round? How did Chinese companies absorb the cost of the 125% tariff, were they selling it at less than half price or giving it away for free? Answer is they didn't: if the US buyer wanted it that badly they picked up the tab or otherwise they waited for the tariff to come down to 10% or went without. Also, very few goods in the US (probably none in the CPI representative basket of good…

Yes exactly, if the exporter is not absorbing the cost, and the consumer is not absorbing the cost (for the most part), the importing company must be absorbing the bulk of the cost.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#587

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if it was, the problem is that this is a classic trap where protecting your own market will result in overpriced goods in the home market. We would be paying extravagant amounts for everything. Most other countries wouldn’t have that problem and would result in being stuck in time like a lot of the former Soviet Union.

Why should something be cheaper to produce in China than in the United States or Europe?

Automation. Ability to innovate without made up IP BS .

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#588

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My aunt is a republican lobbyist. She is also a drunk. This means that she gets drunk and texts my family her unfiltered thoughts all the time. She absolutely thinks that tariffs magically make the US economy better in a very short time period. She thinks that the governments of the countries that she hates are paying them and that the tariffs are solving the deficit problem. She thinks that the number of manufacturi…

The dumbest person supporting a policy is not the reason for supporting it.

The claim above is

> Almost all the comments acting like this is some truth bombshell, like people in trumpistan all thought raising tariffs magically made the us economy better. This is a straw man, no?

This is a person who is deeply involved in the mechanics of writing legislation supported by GOP legislators. I do not believe that she is uniquely dumb amongst right wingers who have access to the levers of power.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#589

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have a funny idea of what friend means.

Please don't reduce decades of friendship with a person to a couple dozen words I posted on a website and think you can judge what friendship means to me. I was talking about the impact of the current state of the world on existing relationships. Stop contributing to the problem.

Who said they’re contributing to the problem? Perhaps you are by constantly downplaying what sounds like wilful ignorance on the part of your friend? Some people’s ignorance does not deserve the same respect as others’ reasoning. Your friend sounds like they enjoy trolling you.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#590
post #203

Almost all the comments acting like this is some truth bombshell, like people in trumpistan all thought raising tariffs magically made the us economy better. This is a straw man, no? Tariffs are a mid-long term strategy to encourage onshoring business, for reasons including military, national security, and political influence on foreign powers. This is a complicated topic involving the global economy and evolving int…

The use of tariffs as a mid-long strategy, in my view, would require a stable, long-term communication that the US government will implement careful, strategic tariffs alongside incentives to strengthen chosen domestic industries where they believe a domestic alternative is feasible. We haven't seen anything even close to that at any point in this tariff rollercoaster - tariffs for products that cannot be produced at…

The economist upon whom many of Trump tariff supporters reference says essentially the same thing: https://www.npr.org/2025/12/29/nx-s1-5660865/why-economists-...

We never accurately measured effect of pedal on the gas trade with China caused with WTO admission nor even NAFTA, the no on ramp was huge shock that didn’t show up in traditional measures. So trying to go full gas reverse with no real strategy is almost mindless.

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