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Is it a bubble?

oaktreecapital.com

581–590 of 605 posts

Re: Is it a bubble?

#581

The post script was pretty sobering. It's kind of the first time in my life that I've been actively hoping for a technology to out right not deliver on its promise. This is a pretty depressing place to be, because most emerging technologies provide us with exciting new possibilities whereas this technology seems only exciting for management stressed about payroll. It's true that the technology currently works as an e…

> It's kind of the first time in my life that I've been actively hoping for a technology to out right not deliver on its promise. Same here, and I think it's because I feel like a craftsman. I thoroughly enjoy the process of thinking deeply about what I will build, breaking down the work into related chunks, and of course writing the code itself. It's like magic when it all comes together. Sometimes I can't even beli…

Coding isn’t creative, it isn’t sexy, and almost nobody outside this bubble cares

Most of the world doesn’t care about “good code.” They care about “does it work, is it fast enough, is it cheap enough, and can we ship it before the competitor does?”

Beautiful architecture, perfect tests, elegant abstractions — those things feel deeply rewarding to the person who wrote them, but they’re invisible to users, to executives, and, let’s be honest, to the dating market.

Being able to refactor a monolith into pristine microservices will not make you more attractive on a date. What might is the salary that comes with the title “Senior Engineer at FAANG.” In that sense, many women (not all, but enough) relate to programmers the same way middle managers and VCs do: they’re perfectly happy to extract the economic value you produce while remaining indifferent to the craft itself. The code isn’t the turn-on; the direct deposit is.

That’s brutal to hear if you’ve spent years telling yourself that your intellectual passion is inherently admirable or sexy. It’s not. Outside our tribe it’s just a means to an end — same as accounting, law, or plumbing, just with worse dress code and better catering.

So when AI starts eating the parts of the job we insisted were “creative” and “irreplaceable,” the threat feels existential because the last remaining moat — the romantic story we told ourselves about why this profession is special — collapses. Turns out the scarcity was mostly the paycheck, not the poetry.

I’m not saying the work is meaningless or that system design and taste don’t matter. I’m saying we should stop pretending the act of writing software is inherently sexier or more artistically noble than any other high-paying skilled trade. It never was.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#582
post #572
post #518

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I dunno, I might be getting old, but I think the idea that people absolutely need a job to stay sane betrays lack of imagination. Of course getting paid just enough for survival is pretty depressing, but if I can have healthy food, a spacious place to live, ability to travel and all the free time I can have, I'd be absolutely happy without a job. Maybe I'd be even writing code, just not commercially useful one.

I don't think this is the scenario most people are worried about. Having basic needs met while also having a lot of freedom and time probably sounds great to the majority of people. But there's roughly 0% chance we end up in that kind of world if current AI leads to massive job elimination. Just look at who is building, funding, and promoting these models! I can't think of a group of people less interested in helping…

Yeah, I get it, but I still hear the argument a lot, including in this article, that even if our needs are covered, we still need jobs for MEANING. Not sure where all those people work, I should probably envy this guy for finding work at an investment fund so satisfying

Re: Is it a bubble?

#583
post #565

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that lawsuit was BS because it went on the assumption that the LLM was acting 100% autonomously with zero human input, which is not how the vast majority of them work. Same for compilers... a human has to give it instructions on what to generate, and I think that should be considered a derivative work that is copyrightable.

If that is the case - then it becomes likely that LLMs are violating the implicit copyright of their sources. If the prompt makes the output a derivative, then the rest is also derivative.

The sensible options were that either LLM outputs are derivative of all their training data, or they're new works produced by the machine, which is not a human, and therefore not copyrightable.

Courts have decided they're new works which are not copyrightable.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#584

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First time reading this. It's actually funny how disliking exceptions seemed crazy then but it's pretty normal now. And writing a new programming language for a certain product, well, it could turn out to be pretty cool, right? It's how we get all those Elms and so on.

> disliking exceptions seemed crazy then but it's pretty normal now Help me to clarify. Are you saying that when Joel posted (~20 years ago), disliking exceptions was considered crazy? And, now it is normal to dislike exceptions? Assuming that my interpretation is correct, then I assume that you are a low level systems programmer -- C, C++, Rust, etc? Maybe even Golang? If you are doing bog standard enterprise progra…

I wasn't around back then, but it must've been at least a bit crazy, considering Atwood threw an exception (heh) high enough to write a blog entry about it. What I think has happened is that with functional programming concepts sort of permeating mainstream, and with the advent of languages like Go and Rust (which I wouldn't exactly call low-level, for different reasons), treating errors as values is nothing unorthodox in principle. I'm not sure how real or prevalent this is really, just a guess.

I'm not trying to advocate going against the stream and not using exceptions in languages based around them, but I can see it being pulled off by a competent team, which I'm certain Joel could put together.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#585
post #484

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No I did that HN thing where I went to an LLM, set temp to 0, pasted your comments in and got widely different outputs every single time I did so

"Went" is a curious turn of phrase, but I take it to mean that you used an LLM on someone else's hardware of unknown origin? How are you ensuring that said hardware isn't faulty? It is a known condition. After all, I already warned you of it. Now try it on deterministic hardware.

Feel free to share your experiments, I cannot reproduce them but you seem very sure about your stance so I am convinced you gave it a try, right ?

Re: Is it a bubble?

#586
post #484

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Went" is a curious turn of phrase, but I take it to mean that you used an LLM on someone else's hardware of unknown origin? How are you ensuring that said hardware isn't faulty? It is a known condition. After all, I already warned you of it. Now try it on deterministic hardware.

Feel free to share your experiments, I cannot reproduce them but you seem very sure about your stance so I am convinced you gave it a try, right ?

Do you need to reproduce them? You can simply look at how an LLM is built, no? It is not exactly magic.

But what are you asking for, exactly? Do you want me to copy and paste the output (so you can say it isn't real)? Are you asking for access to my hardware? What does sharing mean here?

Re: Is it a bubble?

#587

The post script was pretty sobering. It's kind of the first time in my life that I've been actively hoping for a technology to out right not deliver on its promise. This is a pretty depressing place to be, because most emerging technologies provide us with exciting new possibilities whereas this technology seems only exciting for management stressed about payroll. It's true that the technology currently works as an e…

What I don't understand is, will every company really want to be beholden to some AI provider? If they get rid of the workers, all of a sudden they are on the losing end of the bargaining table. They have incredible leverage as things stand.

Yeah if they thought unions were bad, they really won't like dealing with another company larger than them.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#588

The post script was pretty sobering. It's kind of the first time in my life that I've been actively hoping for a technology to out right not deliver on its promise. This is a pretty depressing place to be, because most emerging technologies provide us with exciting new possibilities whereas this technology seems only exciting for management stressed about payroll. It's true that the technology currently works as an e…

> artificial creativity This artificial creativity will only go so far, because it's a simulated semblance of human creativity, as much as could be gathered from training data. If not continually refueled by new training data, it will run out sooner or later. And then it will get boring really quickly.

But it is being continually refueled. The output of an LLM, at least in the process of generating code, is a combined product of human creativity and the LLMl. I have told it what to do, fixed what it got wrong, and verified the solution was correct through testing.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#589

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have heard many software developers confidently tell me "pilots don't really fly the planes anymore" and, well, that's patently false but also the jetliners autopilots do handle much of the busy work during cruise, and sometimes during climb-out and approach. And they can sometimes land themselves, but not efficiently enough for a busy airport.

Autopilot based on a LLM would guarantee I’d never fly again

That would be scary, thankfully I don't think anyone would seriously consider it. But I could see other systems based on similar models being useful. Obstacle avoidance, emergency decision-making, etc. There are many places where a private solo pilot can get overwhelmed and make poor decisions or ignore important information.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#590

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Regarding that PS: > This strikes me as paradoxical given my sense that one of AI’s main impacts will be to increase productivity and thus eliminate jobs. The allegation that an "Increase of productivity will reduce jobs" has been proven false by history over and over again it's so well known it has a name, "Jevons Paradox" or "Jevons Effect"[0]. > In economics, the Jevons paradox (sometimes Jevons effect) occurs whe…

If that's the case, then why do we live in this late capitalist hell hole? Any technology that gets developed will be used for its worst, most dehumanizing purpose possible. That's just the reality of the shity society we live in.

Do you know that there are groups of people around the world who feel similar to you and choose to go and live in smaller communities abstaining from the trappings of the modern world? They live in self built houses, have wells/streams for their own water, grow their own food. I don't believe they're entirely self sufficient or insulated from the outside world, but they're close.

I don't understand why people who seem to hate the modern world so much continue to live in it, and complain on the internet, when they have the option to live differently.

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