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Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

economist.com

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Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#581

Post by Tcepsa »

mckn1ght wrote: post #497
shubb wrote: post #412

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Net worth is a funny metric. Joe has a 300k house with 100k equity and 200k mortgage. He has 100k in stocks in a 401k. Net worth negative 100k. Pete has $300 in his cheques account, and isn't eligible for loans or mortgage. Net worth positive $300 Obviously Joe is richer than Pete though.

This feels like one of those PEMDAS posts on facebook where everyone comes to different results and argues endlessly about it. So let me add my 2¢: if you have 100K in equity and owe 200K on your mortgage, then you’re net -100K on your house that combines with the 100K in the retirement account to produce a net worth of $0 Where is my mistake?

Net worth isn't equity - mortgage + 401k. Net worth is assets - liabilities. Equity is not an asset; the house is. So is the 401k. The mortgage is a liability. So Joe's net worth is 100k (IRA) + 300k (value of house) - 200k (mortgage) = 200k positive net worth.

(Another way of thinking about equity, specifically, is it is the real estate contribution to net worth, because it is what is left when you subtract the real estate liability (mortgage) from the real estate asset (value of house). That's why you shouldn't subtract the mortgage from the equity: equity is what's left after you've already subtracted the mortgage.)

(Edit: Adjusted sign in first equation to subtract mortgage. It's probably more technically accurate to keep it as addition and consider the mortgage to be a negative value, but I believe it's more straightforward and intuitive for most people as it is now represented.)

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#582

Post by raw_anon_1111 »

lordnacho wrote: post #400
raw_anon_1111 wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I saw this coming way before AI became a thing around 2016 when I was 42. Software development was becoming a commodity where there were plenty of “good enough” developers where no matter what, it was going to be saturated. If someone is trying to sell themselves as an undifferentiated developer in 2025 or later, it’s going to be an uphill battle unless you can lean on your network. At 51, if my only differentiator i…

> At 51, if my only differentiator is I can code, I’ve done something horribly wrong in my life. I think software is going through what scribes went through when education went universal. At one point, just knowing how to read and write gave you a cushy job. It didn't matter what, maybe you were in government, maybe you were a clerk organizing trade. Somewhere in the last 20 years, this happened with coding. At the s…

For me, I saw it happening around 2014. I was six years out of the long fog of my “expert beginner” phase and trying to figure out what I was going to do next. I was considered a “senior” [1] full stack developer and no matter what I did - mobile, actually learn front end better, I was still going to top out at around $150K (and sadly enough, that is still what I’m seeing in Atlanta when I lurk on LinkedIn).

I knew I had to get into BigTech or adjacent after my son graduated as a software engineer.

Around 2016 I belatedly discovered cloud consulting where consultants would come in and “transform” organizations. I learned in hindsight that they were a bunch of old school net ops folks who only knew how to do bad lift and shifts that costs the company more money and treated AWS like a Colo.

I wanted to do the same but focus on what I learned the term for years later was “modernization”. Bringing in a software developers mindset on cloud consulting. By 2020, I was no longer thinking about BigTech and was focused on getting into consulting. I had never heard of AWS’s Professional Services department until a recruiter told me about it. Even then I didn’t know it was full time working for AWS directly until that was also explained to me.

[1] yes in hindsight I know that a title of “senior” to someone who pulls well defined tickets off a Jira board is laughable.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#583

Post by mywittyname »

askafriend wrote: post #566
eudamoniac wrote: post #564

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't mean this as a judgement; I am genuinely curious: with a career like that, how are you out of money after twelve months? Do you have unusual expenses? I am 31, currently making $180k (the most I've ever made) as a bog standard 'senior SWE', and I have nearly a million dollars. I am not frugal, I don't think; I just bought a $900 pair of sunglasses last week, and that wasn't a huge outlier expense. I have at l…

I bet poor investment planning and low-paying roles despite the years of experience.

> I bet poor investment planning

Or good investment planning. I only recently built up savings after spending my entire career maxing out 401ks. If I was laid off, I'd only have like 6 months or so of savings before I run out despite having a coastFIRE/leanFIRE NW.

Yes, there are hardship withdraws from 401ks, but the older you get, the more retirement account means retirement account. Meaning, it becomes more clear that the money in that account needs to be left alone until things get dire. You're not going to be more employable in 20 years.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#584

Post by mywittyname »

jiveturkey wrote: post #573
AIorNot wrote: post #260

Well as a single datum: After I got laid off in late 2023 I had a devil of a time finding work (despite having AI experience) to the point my unemployment ran out - And I was 20 years as a dev and tech lead and full stack, (never had trouble finding work) including stints as a leading EM and CTO, I’ve been an industry award winning innovation lead,a digital studio director, switching tech stacks and cloud certs all m…

Try taking 10-12 years off of your resume. Especially if you don't have grey hair this might help a lot.

This is what I do. I leave just enough on the resume to look "senior" while not appearing to be older than 30 or so on my resume.

Having a great, timeless linkedin profile picture helps too.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#585

Post by mywittyname »

markus_zhang wrote: post #78
cal_dent wrote: post #62

I think there's something quite interesting (well to me anyway) where if you go by the internet, there is this bloodbath (slight exaggeration perhaps but feels like that) in jobs out in the US, UK, Aus and major European countries (the volume of anecdotes & complaints would suggest a significant downturn in employment) but out in the official data, and less so but still true in the real world, things are still bobbin…

Reality is not particularly rosy for new graduates AFAIK. If I lose my job, I wouldn't be super surprised that I might never get a similar job for the rest of my life -- it is not that I do not have the skills, but 1) the amount of time for a laid off SDE to get a new job could reach to years, not months, so I need to do something else to earn $$$, and 2) why are companies going to hire me, who have gap years and are…

> why are companies going to hire me, who have gap years and are older, but not some fresh graduates who can work 80 hours per week and only demand half of the salary?

Given cost of living, I have a hard time believing young people come out being cheaper. I live in an area with cheap rents and my mortgage is still less than the average price of a one-bedroom apartment in the area. My cars are new and paid off, and I have pretty much all of the stuff I'd ever need in my life. Plus, no student loans.

That might be one of the real root causes of the job market for new grads being shit. The amount of money people need to meet their basic needs has skyrocketed, and young people bear the brunt of the burden. The only people who can readily afford to work too cheap are those with parents who can continue to support them to a degree.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#586

Post by eudamoniac »

mywittyname wrote: post #583
askafriend wrote: post #566

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I bet poor investment planning and low-paying roles despite the years of experience.

> I bet poor investment planning Or good investment planning. I only recently built up savings after spending my entire career maxing out 401ks. If I was laid off, I'd only have like 6 months or so of savings before I run out despite having a coastFIRE/leanFIRE NW. Yes, there are hardship withdraws from 401ks, but the older you get, the more retirement account means retirement account. Meaning, it becomes more clear…

A 401k and an IRA together constitute only $31,500 this year, and less in each previous year, before taxes. That shouldn't be the main factor. FWIW I was including those accounts in my 'savings' number.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#587

Post by mywittyname »

lordnacho wrote: post #400
raw_anon_1111 wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I saw this coming way before AI became a thing around 2016 when I was 42. Software development was becoming a commodity where there were plenty of “good enough” developers where no matter what, it was going to be saturated. If someone is trying to sell themselves as an undifferentiated developer in 2025 or later, it’s going to be an uphill battle unless you can lean on your network. At 51, if my only differentiator i…

> At 51, if my only differentiator is I can code, I’ve done something horribly wrong in my life. I think software is going through what scribes went through when education went universal. At one point, just knowing how to read and write gave you a cushy job. It didn't matter what, maybe you were in government, maybe you were a clerk organizing trade. Somewhere in the last 20 years, this happened with coding. At the s…

> Now, everybody knows enough of how to do it that it's assumed for many roles

Is it? I don't know anyone who can code proficiently outside of people who work tech jobs (or used to).

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#589

Post by raw_anon_1111 »

mywittyname wrote: post #587
lordnacho wrote: post #400

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> At 51, if my only differentiator is I can code, I’ve done something horribly wrong in my life. I think software is going through what scribes went through when education went universal. At one point, just knowing how to read and write gave you a cushy job. It didn't matter what, maybe you were in government, maybe you were a clerk organizing trade. Somewhere in the last 20 years, this happened with coding. At the s…

> Now, everybody knows enough of how to do it that it's assumed for many roles Is it? I don't know anyone who can code proficiently outside of people who work tech jobs (or used to).

The thing is that there are enough people who are good enough enterprise CRUD developers - especially for remote roles and/or outsourced developers - that it’s hard to stand out from the crowd or command increasingly higher salaries. Gen AI has made the problem worse.

Even if you are targeting a major tech, if you are trying to differentiate yourself by how well you can reverse a btree on the white board, there are plenty of people who can do the same. It’s not a differentiator that you have previous experience in BigTech any more. So do thousands of others.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#590

Post by foolswisdom »

eudamoniac wrote: post #564
AIorNot wrote: post #260

Well as a single datum: After I got laid off in late 2023 I had a devil of a time finding work (despite having AI experience) to the point my unemployment ran out - And I was 20 years as a dev and tech lead and full stack, (never had trouble finding work) including stints as a leading EM and CTO, I’ve been an industry award winning innovation lead,a digital studio director, switching tech stacks and cloud certs all m…

I don't mean this as a judgement; I am genuinely curious: with a career like that, how are you out of money after twelve months? Do you have unusual expenses? I am 31, currently making $180k (the most I've ever made) as a bog standard 'senior SWE', and I have nearly a million dollars. I am not frugal, I don't think; I just bought a $900 pair of sunglasses last week, and that wasn't a huge outlier expense. I have at l…

It's also possible that OP means short term savings kept for circumstances like these, and long term investments bear more cost (e.g. keeping money in a money market fund vs in stocks has different tax implications when you take the money out).
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