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OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss

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Re: OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss

#581

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve got “normie” friends who I’d bet don’t even know that what Google has at the top of their search results is “AI” results and instead assume it’s just some extension of the normal search results we’ve all gotten used to (knowledge graph) Every one of them refers to using “ChatGPT” when talking about AI. How likely is it to stay that way? No idea, but OpenAI has clearly captured a notable amount of mindshare in th…

In the UK, everyone refers to a vacuum as a 'hoover'. They are not the dominant vacuum brand there despite the massive name recognition.

'Pampers' and 'Xerox' in Russia.

Re: OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss

#582

Today I've tested Claude Code with small refactorings here and there in a medium sized project. I was surprised by the amount of token that every command was generating, even if the output was few lines updated for a bunch of files. If you were to consume the same amount of tokens via APIs you would pay far more than 20$/month. Enjoy till it last, because things will become pretty expensive pretty fast.

Provide verbose answers, increases tokens. Demand is measured in tokens, so it looks like demand is sky rocketing. Valuation goes up.

I have noticed that GPT now gives me really long explanations for even the simplest questions. Thankfully there is a stop button.

Re: OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss

#583
post #470
post #362

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is OpenAI's competitive moat? There's no product stickiness here. What prevents people from just using Google, who can build AI stuff into their existing massive search/ads/video/email/browser infrastructure? Normal, non-technical users can't tell the difference between these models at all, so their usage numbers are highly dependent on marketing. Google has massive distribution with world-wide brands that peopl…

> What is OpenAI's competitive moat? There's no product stickiness here. Would have agreed with you untill I saw the meltdown of people losing their "friend" when chatgpt 5 was released. Somehow openai has fallen into a "sticky" userbase.

Will people accept ads from their “computer friend”? Might feel like the Truman Show when your friend starts giving you promo codes in casual conversation

Re: OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss

#584

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So they're profitable if they put themselves at a disadvantage against Google, Meta, etc.?

Yes... but there were concerns previously that inference was so costly that the subscriptions/API billing weren't covering basic operating expenses. That's clearly not the case. People are willing to pay them enough that they can afford to run the models. That's a really positive sign.

Free user inference is probably accounted for in Sales and Marketing. Adjusted COGS.

Re: OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss

#585
post #399

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the empirical answer is no. Look at how many ads there are in everything and people still use it.

Normal people ignore ads. It gets easier with time. Television with ads means conversation about what we just watched.

I don’t think that’s true. For starters, I doubt all (or even most) of Google’s ad revenue is from fraud or from people clicking links they ignore.

I doubt people ignore sponsored listings on Amazon.

Re: OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss

#586
post #58

I think the most interesting numbers in this piece (ignoring the stock compensation part) are: $4.3 billion in revenue - presumably from ChatGPT customers and API fees $6.7 billion spent on R&D $2 billion on sales and marketing - anyone got any idea what this is? I don't remember seeing many ads for ChatGPT but clearly I've not been paying attention in the right places. Open question for me: where does the cost of ru…

I’m also curious about your last question. Cost of goods sold would not fall into R&D or sales as far as I know.

So curious, in fact, that I asked Gemini to reconstruct their income statement from the info in this article :)

There seems to be an assumption that the 20% payment to MS is the cost of compute for inference. I would bet that’s at a significant discount - but who knows how much…

Line Item | Amount (USD) | Calculation / Note

Revenue $4.3 Billion Given.

Cost of Revenue (COGS) ($0.86 Billion) Assumed to be the 20% of revenue paid to Microsoft ($4.3B * 0.20) for compute/cloud services to run inference.

Gross Profit $3.44 Billion Revenue - Cost of Revenue. This 80% gross margin is strong, typical of a software-like business.

Operating Expenses

Research & Development ($6.7 Billion) Given. This is the largest expense, focused on training new models.

Sales & Ads ($2.0 Billion) Given. Reflects an aggressive push for customer acquisition.

Stock-Based Compensation ($2.5 Billion) Given. A non-cash expense for employee equity.

General & Administrative ($0.04 Billion) Implied figure to balance the reported operating loss.

Total Operating Expenses ($11.24 Billion) Sum of all operating expenses.

Operating Loss ($7.8 Billion) Confirmed. Gross Profit - Total Operating Expenses.

Other (Non-Operating) Income / Expenses ($5.7 Billion) Calculated as Net Loss - Operating Loss. This is primarily the non-cash loss from the "remeasurement of convertible interest rights."

Net Loss ($13.5 Billion) Given. The final "bottom line" loss.

Re: OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss

#587

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ChatGpt has won. I talk to all teens living nearby and they all use chatgpt and not Google. The teens, they don't know what is OpenAI, they don't know what is Gemini. They sure know what is ChatGPT.

All of these teens use Google Docs instead of OpenAI Docs, Google Meet instead of OpenAI Meet, Gmail instead of OpenAI Mail, etc. I'm sure that far fewer people to go gemini.google.com than to chatgpt.com, but Google has LLMs seamlessly integrated in each of these products, and it's a part of people's workflows at school and at work. For a while, I was convinced that OpenAI had won and that Google won't be able to re…

Not really. Those teens use Microsoft products, not google ones because that's what schools provide

Re: OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss

#588
post #336
post #231

I think people are massively underestimating the money they will come from ads in the future. They generated $4.3B in revenue without any advertising program to monetise their 700 million weekly active users, most of whom use the free product. Google earns essentially all of its revenue from ads, $264B in 2024. ChatGPT has more consumer trust than Google at this point, and numerous ways of inserting sponsored results…

The moment they start mixing ads into responses Ill stop using them. Open models are good enough, its just more convenient to use chatgpt right now, but that can change.

> Open models are good enough

Are they though? I have the best consumer hardware and can run most open models, and they are all unusable beyond basic text generation. I'm talking 90%+ hallucination rate.

Re: OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss

#589

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I don't see why these companies can't just stop training at some point. Because training isn't just about making brand new models with better capabilities, it's also about updating old models to stay current with new information. Even the most sophisticated present-day model with a knowledge cutoff date of 2025 would be severely crippled by 2027 and utterly useless by 2030. Unless there is some breakthrough that let…

Ain't never hearda rag

There is no evidence that RAG delivers equivalent performance to retraining on new data. Merely having information in the context window is very different from having it baked into the model weights. Relying solely on RAG to keep model results current would also degrade with time, as more and more information would have to be incorporated into the context window the longer it's been since the knowledge cutoff date.

Re: OpenAI's H1 2025: $4.3B in income, $13.5B in loss

#590
post #362
post #231

I think people are massively underestimating the money they will come from ads in the future. They generated $4.3B in revenue without any advertising program to monetise their 700 million weekly active users, most of whom use the free product. Google earns essentially all of its revenue from ads, $264B in 2024. ChatGPT has more consumer trust than Google at this point, and numerous ways of inserting sponsored results…

What is OpenAI's competitive moat? There's no product stickiness here. What prevents people from just using Google, who can build AI stuff into their existing massive search/ads/video/email/browser infrastructure? Normal, non-technical users can't tell the difference between these models at all, so their usage numbers are highly dependent on marketing. Google has massive distribution with world-wide brands that peopl…

"At some point OpenAI's investors are going to want their money back."

They do now, that's why they are using a shell game to pump up the stock value.

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