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Evolving OpenAI's Structure

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Re: Evolving OpenAI's Structure

#581

Post by root_axis »

_heimdall wrote: post #568
root_axis wrote: post #403

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Generally speaking, anyone can learn to use any tool. This isn't true of generative AI systems which can only learn through specialized training with meticulously curated data sets.

People physically unable to use the tool can't learn to use it. This isn't necessarily my view, but one could make a pretty easy argument that the LLMs we have today can't drive a car only because they aren't physically able to control the car.

> but one could make a pretty easy argument that the LLMs we have today can't drive a car only because they aren't physically able to control the car.

Of course they can. We already have computer controlled car systems, the reason LLMs aren't used to drive them is because AI systems that specialize in text are a poor choice for driving - specialized driving models will always outperform them for a variety of technical reasons.

Re: Evolving OpenAI's Structure

#582

Post by huijzer »

atlasunshrugged wrote: post #13

I think this is one of the most interesting lines as it basically directly implies that leadership thinks this won't be a winner take all market: > Instead of our current complex capped-profit structure—which made sense when it looked like there might be one dominant AGI effort but doesn’t in a world of many great AGI companies—we are moving to a normal capital structure where everyone has stock. This is not a sale,…

The value investor Mohnish Pabrai once talked about his observation that most companies with a moat pretend they don’t have one and companies without pretend they do.

Re: Evolving OpenAI's Structure

#584

Post by root_axis »

Muromec wrote: post #448
root_axis wrote: post #403

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Generally speaking, anyone can learn to use any tool. This isn't true of generative AI systems which can only learn through specialized training with meticulously curated data sets.

>can only learn through specialized training with meticulously curated data sets. but so do I!

This isn't true. A curated data set can greatly increase learning efficiency in some cases, but it's not strictly necessary and represents only a fraction of how people learn. Additionally, all curated data sets were created by humans in the first place, a feat that language models could never achieve if we did not program them to do so.

Re: Evolving OpenAI's Structure

#585

Post by yard2010 »

pembrook wrote: post #578
thurn wrote: post #560

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which of these statements do you disagree with? - Superintelligence poses an existential threat to humanity - Predicting the future is famously difficult - Given that uncertainty, we can't rule out the chance of our current AI approach leading to superintelligence - Even a 1-in-1000 existential threat would be extremely serious. If an asteroid had a 1-in-1000 chance of hitting Earth and obliterating humanity we shoul…

You bring up the example of an extinction-level asteroid hurling toward earth. Gee, I wonder if this superintelligence you’re deathly afraid of could help with that? This extreme risk aversion and focus on negative outcomes is just the result of certain personality types, no amount of rationalizing will change your mind as you fundamentally fear the unknown. How do you get out of bed everyday knowing there’s a chance…

Since the internet inception there were a few wrong turns taken by the wrong people (and lizards, ofc) behind the wheel, leading to the sub-optimal, enshitified tm experience we have today. I think GP just don't want to live through that again.

Re: Evolving OpenAI's Structure

#587

Post by immibis »

latentsea wrote: post #492
AndrewKemendo wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with you I wonder, do you have a hypothesis as to what would be a measurement that would differentiate AGI vs Not-AGI?

When it can start wars over resources.

So now? Trump generated his tariff list with ChatGPT

Re: Evolving OpenAI's Structure

#588

Post by immibis »

yard2010 wrote: post #585
pembrook wrote: post #578

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You bring up the example of an extinction-level asteroid hurling toward earth. Gee, I wonder if this superintelligence you’re deathly afraid of could help with that? This extreme risk aversion and focus on negative outcomes is just the result of certain personality types, no amount of rationalizing will change your mind as you fundamentally fear the unknown. How do you get out of bed everyday knowing there’s a chance…

Since the internet inception there were a few wrong turns taken by the wrong people (and lizards, ofc) behind the wheel, leading to the sub-optimal, enshitified tm experience we have today. I think GP just don't want to live through that again.

You mean right turns. The situation that we have today is the one that gets most rewarded. A right move is defined as one that gets rewarded.

Re: Evolving OpenAI's Structure

#589

Post by immibis »

azinman2 wrote: post #32
esafak wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lots of people in academia and industry are calling for more oversight. It's the US government that's behind. Europe's AI Act bans applications with unacceptable risk: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_Intelligence_Act

Unless China handicaps the their progress as well (which they won’t, see made in China 2025), all you’re doing is handing the future to deepseek et al.

Compare the other American "innovations" that Europe mostly rejects.

Re: Evolving OpenAI's Structure

#590

Post by tim333 »

bhouston wrote: post #56
sz4kerto wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or they consider themselves to have low(er) chance of winning. They could think either, but they obviously can't say the latter.

OpenAI is winning in a similar way that Apple is winning in smartphones. OpenAI is capturing most of the value in the space (generic LLM models), even though they have competitors who are beating them on price or capabilities. I think OpenAI may be able to maintain this position at least for the medium term because of their name recognition/prominence and they are still a fast mover. I also think the US is going to b…

Big difference - Apple makes billions from smartphones, getting most of the industry's profits, which makes it hard to compete with.

OpenAI loses billions and is at the mercy of getting new investors to fund the losses. It has many plausible competitors.

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