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TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

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Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#581

Post by raducu »

alephnan wrote: post #504
raducu wrote: post #492

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I bet you're located in the USA? Because nowhere else in the world would anyone even think that somehow logic, sanity and common sense should be suspended just because Israel is mentioned in a conversation.

> I bet you're located in the USA? Because nowhere else in the world CCP and internet police are much more likely to use this logic than anti-Israel Americans. If they were, in fact, an American that was anti-Israel, they wouldn't be so riled up about defending the CCP first and foremost. I'm reminded of the island of Truth Teller and Liar problem: https://sites.millersville.edu/bikenaga/math-proof/truth-tel...

> an American that was anti-Israel.

My argument had nothing to do with pro or anti-Israel, I was just point out that I've only encountered this archiemedean lever/pivot point namely "Israel" in the USA.

It usually goes exactly like in this thread -- someone saying common sense things like not re-drawing borders and killing other humans today, just because something someone did 100 years ago -- and someone, from the opposite side (nothing to do with Israel) asks if this applies to Israel as well -- because they know damn well it applies to Israel and the point either puts Israel in a bad light or Israel would not like that particular point.

At this point if someone asks if "does this apply to Israel" it's usually the bad guys trying to use Israel's name as a logical nuclear weapon.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#582

Post by aurareturn »

DeathArrow wrote: post #376

If anything, this move might motivate China to attack Taiwan ASAP. They already lost access to Taiwanese chips, why would they let US to build capacity?

Because China stated has a law that states they will use military force if a peaceful reunification is "impossible". Right now, it's still possible. And if Taiwan plays its cards right, they can extend this for longer and buy more time.

China wants to retake Taiwan without firing a shot.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#583

Post by DanielHB »

tnt128 wrote: post #314

The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen. From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. In the worst-case scenario, they would be 2-3 years behind the cutting edge, which is not mission-critical. Most electronics (civilian or military) do…

It is hard to drill this in the mind of people who grew up under stable governments, but dictators have this terrible habit of sacrificing prosperity to gain control (often sacrificing the former without gaining the later). Being a dictator and surrounded by yes-man, they also tend to act less rationally and less predictably than your average democratic leader.

History is full of kings who started terrible wars and got their countries screwed in the process. You can't apply game theory this kind of people.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#584

Post by amusingimpala75 »

stevetron wrote: post #580

It is my understanding that FABS require a lot of water. I don't think Arizona has enough water. I could be wrong, though. They keep a nuclear power plant running in AZ by piping in gray water for it.

Intel has a fab nearby as well which is actually net positive for potable water because they take in waste water and purify it enough that it goes back into the supply after they’re done using it.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#585

Post by pavpanchekha »

stevetron wrote: post #580

It is my understanding that FABS require a lot of water. I don't think Arizona has enough water. I could be wrong, though. They keep a nuclear power plant running in AZ by piping in gray water for it.

Fabs recycle the water so it's not a big deal. A lot of water by industrial standards is not a lot of water by state standards, even if we're talking about a pretty desert-y state.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#586

Post by DanielHB »

silvestrov wrote: post #542
throw0101a wrote: post #512

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. You are being economically rational. Not all human decisions are done through that lens. "Thucydides found that people go to war out of 'honor, fear, and interest.'” — Donald Kagan, On the Origins of War and the Preservation of Peace * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Kagan * https://acoup.blog/2019/12/0…

The problem with your argument is that in current times it is much more likely that China acts rationally than the US does. A better argument would be that when China has "good enough" chips then they don't care about chip production in Taiwan. They will only care about sea access. So if Taiwan ends up as completely destroyed rock, then that is ok for China. They will see it as a much better result than other parts o…

> The problem with your argument is that in current times it is much more likely that China acts rationally than the US does.

Doesn't make his point less valid, in fact it makes it probably more valid. When other people are acting irrationally you might as well do so too since you can't predict what other people will do in response.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#587

Post by ac29 »

lr4444lr wrote: post #501
3D30497420 wrote: post #444

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And also a vibrant democracy, potentially serving as an example (foreign and domestic) that alternative political systems are an option and perhaps even desirable. I have a strong impression there are similarities with Russia and Ukraine. Having a neighbor with a similar culture and overlapping histories that also has independent, democratic government was likely viewed as a direct threat to the Putin regime and one…

1) The USA does not have launchable nuclear weapons in neighboring countries to Taiwan that necessitate a buffer 2) Taiwan does not represent unprotected border territory. Heck, attacking it sustainedly would require significant and slow naval logistics 3) Other than human intellect, there is little in the way of natural resources to obtain out of Taiwan. It's economy is manufscturung and export driven. Other than so…

> 1) The USA does not have launchable nuclear weapons in neighboring countries to Taiwan that necessitate a buffer

Existing US land and sea based nuclear weapons could hit targets in China in a matter of minutes. Being based closer to China/Taiwan might shouldnt matter in the age of ICBMs.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#588

Post by petercooper »

stevetron wrote: post #580

It is my understanding that FABS require a lot of water. I don't think Arizona has enough water. I could be wrong, though. They keep a nuclear power plant running in AZ by piping in gray water for it.

Apparently it'll use the equivalent of about 12,000 homes worth of water but have technology to recycle about 65% of their use, so ultimately ~5000 homes worth of water? https://eu.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/joannaallhands/... A lot but about 10% of current household growth in Arizona so they'll surely "find a way."

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#589

Post by Iolaum »

iwontberude wrote: post #567
tyre wrote: post #550

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They will only care about sea access. This is not why the CCP cares about Taiwan. And they’ve cared quite a lot since before there were semiconductors.

To follow up, Taiwan literally blocks their ability to see and defend against attacks coming from behind the Taiwanese island. It’s about observability and reducing easy beachheads.

Given the satellite assets China has I doubt it's true that Taiwan blocks China's abilities to see attacks coming from behind Taiwanese island.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#590

Post by Iolaum »

UltraSane wrote: post #495
nmeofthestate wrote: post #476

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can we really be sure what the new 2025 version of the US would do in such a scenario? I highly doubt the new US is going to intervene in defence of any of its erstwhile allies.

Trump's extreme unpredictability might actually be a advantage in this scenario.

What unpredictable things has Trump's administration done regarding states that were considered the US's adversaries before his administration took over?
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