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Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong

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Re: Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong

#581

Post by [deleted] »

nottorp wrote: post #368
catherd wrote: post #307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only if "utterly fucked" somehow means you can still pay a bit more to DHL and get packages even faster than USPS. Your fast prototypes coming by air freight likely aren't routed through USPS at all unless it's the last leg of a consolidated shipment that's broken apart once it reaches the US. Those would be using some other carrier to get them from China to the US and then USPS only inside the US. USPS all the way f…

> Paying ~$30 for express shipping through DHL (plus whatever the new tariffs end up being) will still get you those parts in 3-5 days to most major shipping hubs in the US, your suppliers will just need to start filing the export paperwork correctly. In my european experience, DHL is anything but fast when customs are involved. And I doubt they have the manpower to handle it for the new US rules. > These changes wil…

[deleted]

Re: Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong

#582

Post by OvidNaso »

anonzzzies wrote: post #289
ygouzerh wrote: post #240

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In a world based on mutual respects instead of trading wars, there should be no point to redo everything again in every country. If one country is very good at doing something, why try to re-implement it again?

That doesn't exist though; politician use globalism to paint all negative stuff (immigration, inflation, wars, climate change, whatever), people (including them) start to believe in it and there we are. Every rich country/country group will need to implement everything (energy, military, tech, food, health, etc) themselves to sustain themselves and 'normally' drive trade to cut prices but at any moment be able to fol…

Well we're finding out right now aren't we. Funny enough the guy who had such the beautiful vision that humanity was meant for the stars is at the center of disproving his life's work and cementing that were doomed for domestic squabbles until the end.

Re: Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong

#583

Post by ta1243 »

throw_m239339 wrote: post #449
Veliladon wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because there's nowhere in the US like Shenzhen, Guangdong or Hong Kong. Remember how Apple couldn't just pick up and move the production of iPhones to India or Vietnam? You need all the ancillary industries around the production to be there, along with being competitive and commoditized as well. When a supplier has something go wrong a line of manufacturing doesn't go down. You go down the street to the same guy sel…

> You metaphorically need to invent the universe to make it work in the US. You didnt answer the obvious question of the why things are the way they are now? US used to have their entire electronic supply chain, save from raw materials, in USA in the 70s... So why cant US build its own Shenzhen or Hong Kong? taxes? corporate taxes are relatively low in some US states, infrastructure? US has all the infrastructure nee…

Best engineers are working at shoveling more adverts down our throats, tracking our every thought to maximise the value they can extract for us.

The goal isn't to have 50 people selling a batch of capacitors for $10, it's to sell them to Alfie for $6, Barbara for $12, and because it's absolutely critical for Colin he gets to pay $623

The western world is about maximising the value middlemen can extract.

Re: Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong

#584

Post by myrmidon »

klipt wrote: post #576
troyvit wrote: post #540

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So why cant US build its own Shenzhen or Hong Kong? taxes? I would guess labor costs and practices are a big aspect. We send all our kids to stupid school instead of paying them pennies to get their tiny little fingers to work building micro-controllers for us and stuff.

Surely these days much of that is done by robots? And will only be increasingly robotic with advances in AI.

The degree of automation affects this very little, for 2 reasons:

- Anything you can easily automate (like pick & place machines for electronics, industrial robots for welding/assembly) will be automated anyway (no advantage for the US as location there)

- Even if you have 100% automation, you still need to pay (mainly) local workforce to set the whole thing up, and a lot of those jobs are even less competitive in the US wage-wise (construction crews, etc.)

Neither of those calculations is probably going to change much in the next decades. If you want to keep low-wage industry (like PCB assembly, heavy industry etc.) in a country like the US, then you will need to subsidise this with taxpayer money one way or the other (tariffs are essentially just that).

Agriculture is an example where this is already done (for obvious reasons related to people not starving in a trade crisis). But this is somewhat expensive (US agriculture subsidies are ~$20billion/year).

I think this will happen, and that some degree of it is a good idea (for strategic reasons), but framing this as a benefit for the average american is pretty much a lie-- because in the end, the taxpayer is on the hook for those subsidies, all those industries products are gonne get more expensive and other sectors are gonna get dragged down, too, because they have to compete for talent and might suffer from foreign trade retaliation.

Re: Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong

#585

Post by ta1243 »

willvarfar wrote: post #455
throw_m239339 wrote: post #449

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You metaphorically need to invent the universe to make it work in the US. You didnt answer the obvious question of the why things are the way they are now? US used to have their entire electronic supply chain, save from raw materials, in USA in the 70s... So why cant US build its own Shenzhen or Hong Kong? taxes? corporate taxes are relatively low in some US states, infrastructure? US has all the infrastructure nee…

In the 1800s the UK led the industrial revolution. Most things were manufactured there. Raw materials were shipped in from all over the Empire but the manufacturing was usually happening in the mills of the UK. In the 1900s the USA took that crown. Most things became manufactured there. A lot thanks to Britain bankrupting itself to defeat Germany in WW1. In the 2000s China has taken that crown. Now most things are ma…

> In the 1900s the USA took that crown. Most things became manufactured there. A lot thanks to Britain bankrupting itself to defeat Germany in WW1.

Throw in the massive loss of manpower both from the war and from Spanish flu, then the damage from years of bombing in WW2.

Re: Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong

#586

Post by grumpy-de-sre »

eru wrote: post #567
grumpy-de-sre wrote: post #424

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess that would add credence to the culture element. All of east Asian shares in this practice really. Given a structure/framework in which to work productively, they tend to really crush it economically. However it seems this often comes at the expense of other aspects of society (underemployment, low fertility rates, elder poverty, deflation etc).

Looking broader at South East Asia, the Chinese minorities in countries around the region are know for working hard and being successful, often more so than other locals.

I'm inclined to think about it in terms of east Asians than strictly ethnically Chinese. You see the exact same attitudes to work in Korea and Japan. Confucianism is a powerful force in the region.

Suffice to say don't underestimate the work ethic and skill of Chinese laborers.

Re: Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong

#587

Post by throwaway290 »

thaumasiotes wrote: post #509
throwaway290 wrote: post #395

Earlier quoted context omitted.

High income != developed. There are different metrics. Overall GDP very high, GDP PPP per capita middling, incomes highly disparate, etc. Developing status becomes kinda subjective and this particular move is not insane. Sadly it's unlike many many other moves.

> High income != developed. There are different metrics. You might want to replace the quote you were citing.

Why?

Re: Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong

#589

Post by Veliladon »

bogantech wrote: post #542
Veliladon wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because there's nowhere in the US like Shenzhen, Guangdong or Hong Kong. Remember how Apple couldn't just pick up and move the production of iPhones to India or Vietnam? You need all the ancillary industries around the production to be there, along with being competitive and commoditized as well. When a supplier has something go wrong a line of manufacturing doesn't go down. You go down the street to the same guy sel…

You can't even get a bare PCB manufactured anywhere else for a price even remotely close to that of JLC, PCBWay etc. Component availability has nothing to do with that, JLC have always been way cheaper than US/EU board houses even before they started doing assembly services

Their cheap as chips PCBs are garbage for anything but hobbyist use. They use crappy substrates and have poor tolerances. If you want decent quality substrates and decent quality finishes for fine pitched work the price quickly shoots up.

Re: Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong

#590

Post by pentel-0_5 »

therealpygon wrote: post #475
dmd wrote: post #460

https://about.usps.com/newsroom/service-alerts/international... Restored already. It's all about chaos.

Create the chaos, then be the solution.

How to be the "hero" on the Karman Drama Triangle while actually being the "villain".
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