Earlier quoted context omitted.
A pop sci fi book can be written by someone who knows the topic and reviewed by people who know the topic — and a history book can also not. LLM generated answers are more comparable to ad-hoc human expert's answers and not to written books. But it's much simpler to statistically evaluate and correct them. That is how we can know that, on average, LLMs are improving and are outperforming human experts on an increasin…
In my experience LLM generated answers are more comparable to an ad-hoc answer by a human with no special expertise, moderate google skills, but good bullshitting skills spending a few minutes searching the web, reading what they find and synthesizing it, waiting long enough for the details to get kind of hazy, and then writing up an answer off the top of their head based on that, filling in any missing material by j…
Of course don't forget that "writing up an answer off the top of their head based on that, filling in any missing material by just making something up" is what everyone does all the time, and in particular it's what experts do in their areas of expertise. How often those snap answers and hasty extrapolations turn out correct is, literally, how you measure understanding.
EDIT:
There's some deep irony here, because with LLMs being "all system 1, no system 2", we're trying to give them the same crutches we use on the road to understanding, but have them move the opposite direction. Take "chain of thought" - saying "let's think step by step" and then explicitly going through your reasoning is not understanding - it's the direct opposite of it. Think of a student that solves a math problem step by step - they're not demonstrating understanding or mastery of the subject. On the contrary, they're just demonstrating they can emulate understanding by more mechanistic, procedural means.