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OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

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Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#581

Post by tigershark »

csomar wrote: post #565
hcwilk wrote: post #537

I just graduated college, and this was a major blow. I studied Mechanical Engineering and went into Sales Engineering because cause I love technology and people, but articles like this do nothing but make me dread the future. I have no idea what to specialize in, what skills I should master, or where I should be spending my time to build a successful career. Seems like we’re headed toward a world where you automate s…

Just give it a year for this bubble/hype to blow over. We have plateaued since gpt-4 and now most of the industry is hype-driven to get investor money. There is value in AI but it's far from it taking your job. Also everyone seems to be investing in dumb compute instead of looking for the new theoretical paradigm that will unlock the next jump.

Where is the plateau? Chatgtp 4 was ~0% in ARC-AGI. 4o was 5%. This model literally solved it with a score higher than the 85% of the average human. And let’s not forget the unbelievable 25% in frontier math, where all the most brilliant mathematicians in the world cannot solve by themselves a lot of the problems. We are speaking about cutting edge math research problems that are out of reach from practically everyone. You will get a rude awakening if you call this unbelievable advancement a “plateau”.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#584

Post by dyauspitr »

csomar wrote: post #565
hcwilk wrote: post #537

I just graduated college, and this was a major blow. I studied Mechanical Engineering and went into Sales Engineering because cause I love technology and people, but articles like this do nothing but make me dread the future. I have no idea what to specialize in, what skills I should master, or where I should be spending my time to build a successful career. Seems like we’re headed toward a world where you automate s…

Just give it a year for this bubble/hype to blow over. We have plateaued since gpt-4 and now most of the industry is hype-driven to get investor money. There is value in AI but it's far from it taking your job. Also everyone seems to be investing in dumb compute instead of looking for the new theoretical paradigm that will unlock the next jump.

Did you read the article at all? We’re definitely not plateauing.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#585

Post by martin82 »

hcwilk wrote: post #537

I just graduated college, and this was a major blow. I studied Mechanical Engineering and went into Sales Engineering because cause I love technology and people, but articles like this do nothing but make me dread the future. I have no idea what to specialize in, what skills I should master, or where I should be spending my time to build a successful career. Seems like we’re headed toward a world where you automate s…

buy bitcoin.

when the last job has been automated away, millions of AIs globally will do commerce with each other and they will use bitcoin to pay each other.

as long as the human race (including AIs) produces new goods and services, the purchasing power of bitcoin will go up, indefinitely. even more so once we unlock new industries in space (settlements on the Moon and Mars, asteroid mining etc).

The only thing that can make a dent into bitcoin's purchasing power would be all out global war where humanity destroys more than it creates.

The only other alternative is UBI, which is Communism and eternal slavery for the entire human race except the 0.0001% who run the show.

Chose wisely.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#586

Post by baron816 »

hcwilk wrote: post #537

I just graduated college, and this was a major blow. I studied Mechanical Engineering and went into Sales Engineering because cause I love technology and people, but articles like this do nothing but make me dread the future. I have no idea what to specialize in, what skills I should master, or where I should be spending my time to build a successful career. Seems like we’re headed toward a world where you automate s…

What I keep telling people is, if it becomes possible for one person or a handful of people to build and maintain a Google scale company, and my job gets eliminated as a result, then I’m going to go out and build a Google scale company.

There’s an incredibly massive amount of stuff the world needs. You probably live in a rich country, but I doubt you are lacking for want. There are billionaires who want things that don’t exist yet. And, of course, there are billions of regular folks who want some of the basics.

So long as you can imagine a better world, there will be work for you to do. New tools like AGI will just make it more accessible for you to build your better future.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#588

Post by nateglims »

xbmcuser wrote: post #517
bluecoconut wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

some other imporant quotes: "Average human off the street: 70-80%. STEM college grad: >95%. Panel of 10 random humans: 99-100%" -@fchollet on X So, considering that the $3400/task system isn't able to compete with STEM college grad yet, we still have some room (but it is shrinking, i expect even more compute will be thrown and we'll see these barriers broken in coming years) Also, some other back of envelope calculat…

You are missing that cost of electricity is also going to keep falling because of solar and batteries. This year in China my table cloth math says it is $0.05 pkwh and following the cost decline trajectory be under $0.01 in 10 years

Is it going to fall significantly for data centers? Industrial policy for consumer power is different from subsidizing it for data centers and if you own grid infrastructure why would you tank the price by putting up massive amounts of capital?

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#589

Post by cheriot »

hcwilk wrote: post #537

I just graduated college, and this was a major blow. I studied Mechanical Engineering and went into Sales Engineering because cause I love technology and people, but articles like this do nothing but make me dread the future. I have no idea what to specialize in, what skills I should master, or where I should be spending my time to build a successful career. Seems like we’re headed toward a world where you automate s…

I graduated high school in '02 and everyone assured me that all tech jobs were being sent to India. "Don't study CS," they said. Thankfully I didn't listen.

Either this is the dawn of something bigger than the industrial revolution or you'll have ample career opportunity. Understanding how things work and how people work is a powerful combination.

Re: OpenAI O3 breakthrough high score on ARC-AGI-PUB

#590

Post by hollowturtle »

cchance wrote: post #304
scotty79 wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Still it's comparing average human level performance with best AI performance. Examples of things o3 failed at are insanely easy for humans.

You'd be surprised what the AVERAGE human fails to do that you think is easy, my mom can't fucking send an email without downloading a virus, i have a coworker that believes beyond a shadow of a doubt the world is flat. The Average human is a lot dumber than people on hackernews and reddit seem to realize, shit the people on mturk are likely smarter than the AVERAGE person

Not being able to send an email or believing the world is flat it’s not a sign of intelligence, I’d rather say it’s more about culture or being more or less scholarized. Your mom or coworker still can do stuff instinctively that is outperforming every algorithm out there and still unexplained how we do it. We still have no idea what intelligence is
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