Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

cnn.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

581–590 of 1001 posts

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#581

Post by xenospn »

VagabundoP wrote: post #440
trhway wrote: post #427

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suggest you revisit the history of the first days of the invasion, specifically the depth which the ground armored forces reached in the first 2-3 days and what and how they were stopped. The Baltic states "width" is much smaller, and thus there is much less time to organize defense, etc. It is hardly enough time even just for taking the decision to initiate defense. Of course, like in the case with Ukraine, Russia…

We had plenty of warning they were going to invade. The units didn't just pop out of nowhere. Any build up on those borders is now going to be interpreted in that way and you'll have a likely reaction from NATO all across the eastern front. I doubt they would get very far.

Never underestimate the European ability to discuss matters and do absolutely nothing while their beds are burning.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#583

Post by CrazyCatDog »

Moru wrote: post #499
CrazyCatDog wrote: post #377

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“Knowing that 200 undersea cables break every year globally, estimate the probability that 3 cables break in the baltic sea on the same day.” I’m stealing this to use for grad-student mock-interviews—thank you!

Hint: The cables are often very close. If one breaks, the otherone also breaks :-)

Right, if it’s a case interview, then higher accuracy ought to prompt the interviewee to ask: (1) Do the 200 cuts typically occur in clusters? (2) What’s the typical density, eg are they usually collocated? (as an alternative to the above) (3) Are there pathways that avoid the sea but connect Europe and North America (getting at density in the sea in question) Etc.

That’s what makes this one so good—lots of opportunities to extend or roll-back difficulty.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#584

Post by Hikikomori »

ponector wrote: post #550
euroderf wrote: post #73

So what's the solution ? Assign a surveillance UAV to every Russian ship parked "without a good reason" over a cable ? It would be expensive, but doable, and create a reserve of vehicles for wartime use.

The solution is to refuse passage of the ships to\into Russian part of the Baltic. Naval blockade. But it is impossible as so many Russian-backed politicians are elected in EU. And all other doesn't have a strong will or doesn't care about Russian threat. No Churchill\Reagan types are there. Good times creates weak men.

Good thing we have strong reality tv hosts.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#585

Post by oneshtein »

pelasaco wrote: post #556
stoperaticless wrote: post #540

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, you never know 100%. There is a small (really small) chance it was an accident. Just like there is a small chance that Al Capone was innocent man. (But really, it clearly has “Russia” written all over it)

just to be honest, the Pipelines explosion, had "Russia" written all over it, except after investigation, and a possible culprit, i.e not Russia, then nobody wanted to discuss about it anymore. I think the hysteria is too high, people are thirsty for War, looks like..

Delivery of Russian gas was stopped by Russia in violation of contract. European gas companies demands $20 billion in compensation. Nobody had incentive to blow up empty pipes except Russia.

Of course, Russians used false flag as usual, to blame Ukraine, but Ukraine doesn't hide successful attacks on Russian infrastructure, because Ukraine has legal right to defend itself.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#586

Post by oneshtein »

vasco wrote: post #567
mciancia wrote: post #560

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> people are thirsty for War, looks like Russians, yes

I wish I lived in a world where it's so easy to know who is good and who is evil and to pinpoint them so well.

This planet voted in UN that Russian Federation is aggressor. Which world you represent?

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#587

Post by oneshtein »

lynx23 wrote: post #564
a2800276 wrote: post #543

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> when it's clear who's done it and why. Is it though? From my understanding it's clearly sabotage, but who's responsible is open to some debate. Compare to NordStream, it's still not officially determined who's responsible.

> officially determined who's responsible Becuase they are afraid to figure out the truth. It might not fit the propaganda narrative.

FUD

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#589

Post by oneshtein »

nkrisc wrote: post #537
trhway wrote: post #424

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yes. What Russia does currently is probing and testing - what it takes to disrupt all the necessary cables simultaneously to create communication breakdown and a lot of chaos, what resources and time it takes to repair (and thus planning the options on blocking those repair resources, etc.) It takes tanks half-a-day to cross the Baltic states to reach the sea. That is the time Russia wants to buy. Once Russian forces…

This would be more concerning if Russia had any tanks left. Are you suggesting Russia has a full invasion force they’re not using in Ukraine? Or to liberate their own occupied territory?

RF refurbishes about 1300 tanks a year. It's more than enough to conquer part of Europe and then exchange it for Ukraine.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#590

Post by XorNot »

Wytwwww wrote: post #508
XorNot wrote: post #407

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's harder to get false identification then people on the internet think. But also the Russian MO has never been to do things where it's not obvious they did it: the spate of critics of the Russian government dying by falling out of windows isn't because they lack creativity in assassinating people.

You don't need false documents, buying and operating a ship that has no direct ties to Russia and is registered at an other country isn't that hard at all. Of course yeah, if suddenly if cables get cut 10x more often that they used to it be pretty obvious who is behind it regardless. > has never been to do things where it's not obvious they did They could still shot them or something like that, the window thing still…

> You don't need false documents, buying and operating a ship that has no direct ties to Russia and is registered at an other country isn't that hard at all

You literally just described a program of falsifying documents! If you're buying and operating a ship, then to have "no ties to Russia" while using Russian money, someone is showing up with forged paperwork or some off-the-books bribes to make that happen.

Drawing down those sorts of sums from a country's treasury isn't something you can actually just "do" - people have to take actions, funds transferred, meetings held and operations authorized.

You are describing a system of resources which likely does exist, but is by no means easy to use or acquire and would not be expended unnecessarily.

Post reply on HN