581–590 of 651 posts
Living here for the last 10 years, it's been jarring how just in the last few years, driverless taxis went from "it'll never happen" to "is this the default now?" The Waymos are genuinely good drivers. I look forward to taking them every time.
We do appreciate your sacrifice, here in the EU.
Comments are really underestimating Tesla FSD in here. As an owner and user of FSD, it's scary how quickly their new Neural Net version is improving. There's a reason Elon and other internal Tesla engineers are so bullish on it, they've seen the data on 12.5 and beyond. Once their 100,000 GPU cluster is complete this year, how many iterations until FSD is comparable to Waymo? One year? Maybe 3 years? The reason Waymo…
Not to mention that Tesla's hardware costs are considerably less -- they're doing it with "just" a few cameras.
There's a reason Tesla hasn't been able to remove the driver (or even let them take their eyes off). It's because the car has "just" a few cameras.
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Well they just announced that they are doing tens of thousands of rides per week. That either works or it doesn't. And they seem pretty comfortable doing that. Also there's a distinct lack of horror stories involving Waymo cars. And I assume that they don't have thousands of mechanical turks wielding a joystick somewhere, which means these things are mostly working as advertised (i.e. autonomously) with the very occa…
Idgaf if they're round-tripping the equivalent to mars and back weekly, the fact of the matter is their tech cannot perform at the level of a human driver who's had their license for a week, by their own admission. No amount of argle-bargle changes that as the autonomy levels are very well-defined and Waymo self-reports as L4 under optimal conditions and no clear path to L5 in sight in the next decade. Let's not conf…
As for people that recently got their drivers license. I'm pretty sure that demographic is over-represented in the statistics of who drives the least safely, traffic fatalities, etc. Also insurers and rental car agencies have policies that reflect those cold, hard statistics. It will be interesting to see what they do when level 5 starts happening (probably sooner rather than later). My guess is that they'll charge people extra for the privilege of taking control of the car as they are far more likely to damage the vehicle and otherwise cause trouble.
And obviously one of the points Waymo is trying to make with their press release is that they are already safer. It's a press release of course and not the same as cold hard facts. And you make a fair point about self reporting. But it suggests the obvious notion that computers are getting pretty good at not crashing into stuff (or people). I find that entirely unsurprising, BTW. It does not seem like a particularly hard problem.
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> is Tesla actually in a position to win here due to their manufacturing capability / current deployment of Tesla's? Tesla has much lower costs. If they can beat Waymo on customer experience (better driving primarily, but also better in-car entertainment, better mobile app, and match Waymo's pricing) they'll win. Waymo might have a regulatory advantage since a lot of politians don't like Musk.
Tesla definitely has lower costs, but what they don't have is a car that can drive itself. They only have a car that can drive with a human partner behind the wheel who's ready at any second to take over and prevent it from crashing.
Even that is a faulty system.
I really don't understand how people can think Tesla and Waymo are anywhere close to each other. Making a car drive itself is a much harder problem to solve than scaling production. If you look at what Tesla has, today, it is a vehicle that can sometimes drive on its own with the need for a human behind the wheel. The ability to remove the human from the front seat is the other 95% of the work. In systems like this where human lives are at stake, getting "mostly there" with FSD is essentially worthless.
The problems of logistics and scaling are well-known and well traveled. The invention of a self-driving car is not. Once Waymo has solved the issue of entering new cities and quickly gathering data to feed into their model, they've won.
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It's us in the EU who are having the sacrifice though. As we're left behind economically and technologically as a load of octogenarian bureaucrats decide to ban genetic engineering, AI, etc.
calling protecting people's data, 'banning AI' is an interesting take
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https://www.youtube.com/shorts/ffhD_dNzoM0 Any driver that makes this kind of move is typically in the top 5%ile of driving skills. Yes, it's an asshole and slightly illegal move, but the level of intelligence that needs to be applied for this move is all you need to know about Tesla's advantages. I have been extremely critical of Musk's reliance on only cameras, but I'm impressed with the progress they have made bec…
I'd say these drivers are in the lower 5%ile because what usually happens is that they now block two lanes or almost crash trying to go into the corner together. It was luck that the left lane was moving and that there was space. I don't want to see this kind of move from a driverless car.
A skilled driver always makes the smooth transition into those gaps. I know most HNers are goody-rule-followers and can never appreciate the skill required to make that maneuver consistently. But, this is a clear example of separation of intelligence / skill and I'm happy with the bet that these are signals of intelligence
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https://www.youtube.com/shorts/ffhD_dNzoM0 Any driver that makes this kind of move is typically in the top 5%ile of driving skills. Yes, it's an asshole and slightly illegal move, but the level of intelligence that needs to be applied for this move is all you need to know about Tesla's advantages. I have been extremely critical of Musk's reliance on only cameras, but I'm impressed with the progress they have made bec…
This is a terrible driving decision.
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https://www.youtube.com/shorts/ffhD_dNzoM0 Any driver that makes this kind of move is typically in the top 5%ile of driving skills. Yes, it's an asshole and slightly illegal move, but the level of intelligence that needs to be applied for this move is all you need to know about Tesla's advantages. I have been extremely critical of Musk's reliance on only cameras, but I'm impressed with the progress they have made bec…
> Any driver that makes this kind of move is typically in the top 5%ile of driving skills. Hard disagree. It's pretty clear the car just didn't understand what the line of cars was doing. > level of intelligence that needs to be applied for this move If you were a human making this move, I would judge your intelligence as below average.
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"A fan-boy would never call Musk a narcisstic a*hole." FWIW - You definitely come off as as irrationally in favor of tesla, regardless of reason. Nobody missed any of your points, they just don't agree with most them or believe the rest follow from your points.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/ffhD_dNzoM0 Any driver that makes this kind of move is typically in the top 5%ile of driving skills. Yes, it's an asshole and slightly illegal move, but the level of intelligence that needs to be applied for this move is all you need to know about Tesla's advantages. I have been extremely critical of Musk's reliance on only cameras, but I'm impressed with the progress they have made bec…
Every idiot can drive like an impatient asshole. Choosing not to do is is the true sign of intelligence. The car is literally driving itself at this point. What does getting there three minutes faster so you can doom scroll Instagram from the lobby instead of doing that while your car is driving itself do for you? Are you more important than everyone else and thus deserve not to wait your turn?
If it helps, Waymo's will run red lights, so it's not like Tesla's got a monopoly on being a bad driver.