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Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

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Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#581
post #366

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And none of them build AI companies in Toronto. I’m Canadian and disappointed at how ineffective we are at building successful companies.

Why would anyone start the game on hard mode when easy mode is a border drive away? Us is so outrageously better than the rest that people fly across oceans to start businesses there. Canada, being next door, doesn't have the distance moat to at least slow down the brain drain

That's such a frustrating thing. There are so many opportunities in SF alone. But I really don't want to live there.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#582
post #553

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When the next wave of new deep learning innovations sweeps the world, that won't happen, the next scam will be different it was crypto until FTX collapsed then the usual suspects led by a16z leaned on OpenAI to rush whatever they had on market hence the odd naming of ChatGPT 3.5. When the hype is finally realized to be just mass printing bullshit -- relevant bullshit, yes, which sometimes can be useful but not bill…

Crypto currencies has the potential to grow the world economy by about 1-3%, as banking fees go down. Add other uses of crypto may double or triple that, but that's really speculative. AI, on the other hand, has a near infinite potential. It's conceivable that it will grow the global economy by 2% OR MORE per MONTH for decades or more. AI is going to be much more impactful than the internet. Probably more than intern…

AI? Yes.

LLMs pretending to be AI? No.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#583

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There goes the so called superalignment: Ilya Jan Leike William Saunders Leopold Aschenbrenner All gone

I guess if they really thought we had something to worry about, they would've stayed just to steer things in the right direction. Doesn't seem like they felt it was required. Edit: I'd love to know why the down votes, it's an opinion, not a political statement. This community is quite off lately. Is this a highly controversial statement ? People are truly worried about the future and this is just an anxiety based rea…

Doesn't the whole Altman sacking thing show that they had no power to do any steering, and in fact Altman steers?

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#584
post #480
post #447

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Top 6 science guys are long gone. Open AI is run by marketing, business, software and productization people. When the next wave of new deep learning innovations sweeps the world, Microsoft eats whats left of them. They make lots of money, but don't have future unless they replace what they lost.

How important are top science guys though? OpenAI has a thousand employees and almost unlimited money, and llm are better understood, I would guess continous development will beat singular genius heroes?

OpenAI has less than 800 employees

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#585
post #454

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I Don't know. Being able to get azure credits has payed out really well for openai as a business in constant need of computer.

Which is a very short term advantage. And Anthropic gets aws credits which would you rather have?

Given Amazon's no show in the AI space? Azure. By a mile.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#586

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Extrapolating 2 years might give you a wrong idea, but extrapolating the last year suggests making another leap that was GPT3 or GPT4 is much, much more difficult. The only considerable breakthrough I can think of is Google's huge context window which I hope will be the norm one day, but in terms of actual results they're not mind-blowing yet. We see little improvements everyday and for sure there will be some leaps,…

Unlike AI in the past, there is now massive amounts of money going into AI. And the number things humans are still doing significantly better than AI is going down continously now. If something like Q* is provided organically with GPT5 (which may have a different name), and allows proper planning, error correction and direct interaction with tools, that gaps is getting really close to 0.

AI in the past (adjusted for 1980s) was pretty well funded. It's just that fundamental scientific discovery bears little relationship to the pallets of cash.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#587
post #550

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There goes the so called superalignment: Ilya Jan Leike William Saunders Leopold Aschenbrenner All gone

So Satya Nadella paid $13 billion to have....Sam Altman :-))

Are you suggesting that the OAI investment was not a good investment for MS?

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#588
post #484

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you extend the window a little bit, along Yes Minister, Idiocracy and Demolition Man (the last two being a documentary of our time filmed 20y ago).

> Idiocracy I definitely enjoyed this movie, and it's understandable that people of any era, starting with ancient Greece, enjoy lamenting at how stupid people are becoming. However, as long as videos explaining quantum physics and 4-hour long interviews with historians and engineers are still one of the most popular kinds of content on Youtube, I would suggest that it's not a documentary, at least not yet.

All that is dwarfed next to the amount of people watching the latest reaction to a repost of a video in TikTok.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#589
post #570

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not saying it’s going to be the same, but I’m sure computing progress looked pretty unimpressive from, say, 1975 to 1990 for the uninitiated. By the 90s they were still mainly used as fancy typewriters by “normal” people (my parents, school, etc) although the ridiculous potential was clear from day one. It just took a looong time to go from pong to ping and then to living online. I’m still convinced even this stage i…

Computing progress from 78 to 90 was mind-blowing. 1978: the apple ][. 1mhz 8 bit microprocessor, 4kb of ram, monochrome all-,caps display. 1990:Mac IIci, 25mhz 32-bit CPU, 4MB ram, 640x480 color graphics and an easy to use GUI. Ask any of us who used both of these at the time: it was really amazing.

They were amazing, and the progress was incredible, but both of those computers - while equally exciting and delightful to people who saw the potential - were met with ‘but what can I actually use it for?’ from the vast majority of the population.

By 1990 home computer use was still a niche interest. They were still toys, mainly. DTP, word processing and spreadsheets were a thing, but most people had little use for them - I had access to a Mac IIci with an ImageWriter dot matrix around that time and I remember nervously asking a teacher whether I would be allowed to submit a printed typed essay for a homework project - the idea that you could do all schoolwork on a computer was crazy talk. By then, tools like Mathematica existed but as a curiosity not an essential tool like modern maths workbooks are.

The internet is what changed everything.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#590

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The majority of the developers may know what LLMs are in an abstract sense, but I meet very few that really realize what these are. These LLMs are an exponential leap in computational capability. The next revolution is going to be when people realize what we have already, because it is extremely clear the majority do not. RAG? Chatbots? Those applications are toys compared to what LLMS can do right now, yet everyone…

> The next revolution is going to be when people realize what we have already Enlighten us

It is both subtle and obvious, yet many are missing this: if you want/need a deep subject matter expert in virtually any subject, write a narrative biography describing your expert using the same language that expert would use to describe themselves; this generates a context within the LLM carrying that subject matter expertise, and now significantly higher quality responses are generated. Duplicate this process for several instances of your LLM, creating a home brewed collection of experts, and have them collectively respond to one's prompts as a group privately, and then present their best solution. Now there is a method of generating higher reliability responses. Now turn to the fact that the LLMs are trained on an Internet corpus of data that contains the documentation and support forums for every major software application; using the building blocks described so far, it is not difficult at all to create agents that sit between the user and pretty much every popular software application and act as co-authors with the user helping them use that application.

I have integrated 6 independent, specialized "AI attorneys" into a project management system where they are collaborating with "AI web developers", "AI creative writers", "AI spreadsheet gurus", "AI negotiators", "AI financial analysts" and an "AI educational psychologist" that looks at the user, the nature and quality of their requests, and makes a determination of how much help the user really needs, modulating how much help the other agents provide.

I've got a separate implementation that is all home solar do-it-yourself, that can guide someone from nothing all the way to their own self made home solar setup.

Currently working on a new version that exposes my agent creation UI with a boatload of documentation, aimed at general consumers. If one can write well, as in write quality prose, that person can completely master using these LLMs to superior results.

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