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OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

reuters.com

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Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#581
post #560

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I feel very comfortable saying, as a mathematician, that the ability to solve grade school maths problems would not be at all a predictor of ability to solve real mathematical problems at a research level. At some point in the past, you yourself were only capable of solving grade school maths problems.

The statement you quoted also holds for humans. Of those who can solve grade school math problems, very, very few can solve mathematical problems at a research level.

You missed the point. Deep learning models are in the early stages of development.

With recent advancements they can already outperform humans at many tasks that were considered to require AGI level machine intelligence just a few years ago.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#582

So can people stop their cyberbullying campaign against the previous batch of board members yet? The conspiratorial hysteria against them, especially Helen Toner and Tasha McCauley, over the weekend was off the charts and straight up vile at times. Tech bros and tech bro wannabes continue to prove the necessity of shoving DEI into STEM disciplines even when it results in nonsensical wasted efforts, because they are i…

The "tech bros" were right: The board absolutely were conspirators wrecking the company based on dogmatic ideology. "Tech bros" had clear evidence of Sutskever, Toner and McCauley's deep and well-known ties to the Effective Altruist (EA) movement and doomerist views. Nobody can doubt Sutskever's technical credentials, whatever his strange beliefs, but Toner and McCauley had no such technical background or even business achievements. These members instead were organizers in EA and researchers in the "field" of AI governance and safety. This is no expertise at all. These "disciplines" are built more on Yudkowsky's rants and hypotheticals and the precautionary principle gone mad than any empirical research. These ideas also come from a cult-like social movement (EA) accumulating power across tech and government with few scruples, as shown by SBF's implosion last year and many smaller incidents. How could Toner and McCauley assess briefings if they couldn't assess the technical fundamentals? How could they foresee the consequences of sacking the CEO if they didn't understand business? If they already believed AGI would kill all humans, how could they judge new advances on the merits without jumping to wild conclusions? Instead, us "tech bros" felt people with this background would fall back on uninformed, reactionary, and opaque decision making, leading to wrecking an $80 billion business with no decent explanation.

This now seems to be exactly what happened. The board saw Q* and decided to coup the company, to put all power in their hands and stop development. This by itself is bad enough if you care about open science or progress, but it gets worse. They didn't even want to hint at capabilities increases to avoid "advancing timelines" i.e. Open-ing knowledge about AI, so they made up some canard about Altman's "lying to the board" to hide their real reasons. This is vile libel for unscrupulous ends. When they realized this excuse wouldn't fly, they obfuscated and refused to explain their true concerns, even to their own handpicked CEO Emmett Shear. However, it turns out that destroying $80 billion and lying about why won't fly in the real world. The board had no second-order or even first-order thinking about the consequences of their actions, and were rolled up by bigger actors. These people were unprepared and unable to follow up their coup.

This failure is exactly what you'd expect from a brilliant scientist with little organizational experience (Ilya) and social-science academics and NGO organizers (Toner and McCauley). I don't care what gender they are, these people neither deserved their authority nor could use it effectively. Dismissing valid criticism of the board as "cyber bullying" or "tech bro sexism" merely underscores why most engineers hate DEI rhetoric in the first place.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#583

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd like to have the choice not to. I have extremely limited options for that. And I already live in a country which regularly has all of its electricity generated renewably.

You have all the choice in the world. If you want, you can literally go and do subsistence farming — there are plenty countries in the world with extremely lax visa situation and plenty of empty land. Of course, doing this would extremely hard and dangerous. But living an easier and safer life is the whole point of the industrial revolution and it's consequences, so if you truly believe that it's the disaster for the…

> You have all the choice in the world

Untrue. Choices are very constrained. We are not isolated individuals, and we need our families and communities

> If you want, you can literally go and do subsistence farming

That would be very selfish. And wanting to place limits, short of infinity, on private wealth is not a vow of poverty

> there are plenty countries in the world with extremely lax visa situation and plenty of empty land.

No there are not!

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#584
post #554

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you saying it could , without having read it somewhere?

Maybe I'm unsure what we're arguing here. Did the guys kid drum that up himself or did he learn it from yt? Knowledge can be inferred or extracted. If it comes up with a correct answer and shows it's work, who cares how the knowledge was obtained?

If the knowledge was obtained by genuine reasoning, that implies that it could also derive/develop a novel solution to an unsolved problem that is not achieved by random guesses. For example, the conception of a complex number in the first place, to solve a class of problems that, prior, weren't even thought to be problems. There's no evidence that any LLM can do that.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#585
post #316

I was talking to my (12 year old) son about parts of math he finds boring. He said that he thinks absolute value is absurdly easy and extremely boring. I asked him if there was anything that might make it more interesting, he said "maybe complex numbers". So I asked him "what would the absolute value of i+1 be?" he thinks for a little bit and says "square root of 2" and I ask him "what about the absolute value of 2i…

Your son is a goddamn genius.

Maybe; he still needs to finish his damned homework and remember to turn it in. And eat some vegetables.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#586

Remember, about a month ago Sam posted a comment along the lines of "AI will be capable of superhuman persuasion well before it is superhuman at general intelligence, which may lead to very strange outcomes". The board was likely spooked by the recent breakthroughs (which were most likely achieved by combining transformers with another approach), and hit the panic button. Anything capable of "superhuman persuasion",…

Except that there's a fairly large body of evidence that persuasion is of limited use in shifting political opinion. So the persuasion would need to be applied to something other than some sort of causative political-implication-laden argument.

> Except that there's a fairly large body of evidence that persuasion is of limited use in shifting political opinion.

The Republican Party's base became isolationist and protectionist during 2015 and 2016 because their dear leader persuaded them.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#587
post #491

I feel very comfortable saying, as a mathematician, that the ability to solve grade school maths problems would not be at all a predictor of ability to solve real mathematical problems at a research level. The reason LLMs fail at solving mathematical problems is because: 1) they are terrible at arithmetic, 2) they are terrible at algebra, but most importantly, 3) they are terrible at complex reasoning (more specifica…

I don't know whether this particular article is bunk. I do know I've read many, many similar comments about how some complex task is beyond an conceivable model or system and then, years later, marveled at exactly that complex task being solved.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#588
post #529
post #491

I feel very comfortable saying, as a mathematician, that the ability to solve grade school maths problems would not be at all a predictor of ability to solve real mathematical problems at a research level. The reason LLMs fail at solving mathematical problems is because: 1) they are terrible at arithmetic, 2) they are terrible at algebra, but most importantly, 3) they are terrible at complex reasoning (more specifica…

But, isn't AlphaGo a solution to kind of specific mathematical problem? And that it has passed with flying colors? What I mean is, yes, neural networks are stochastic and that seems to be why they're bad at logic; on the other hand it' not exactly hallucinating a game of Go, and that seems different to how neural networks are prone to hallucination and confabulation on natural language or X-ray imaging.

Sure, but people have already applied deep learning techniques to theorem proving. There are some impressive results (which the press doesn't seem at all interested in because it doesn't have ChatGPT in the title).

It's really harder than one might imagine to develop a system which is good at higher order logic, premise selection, backtracking, algebraic manipulation, arithmetic, conjecturing, pattern recognition, visual modeling, has a good mathematical knowledge, is autonomous and fast enough to be useful.

For my money, it isn't just a matter of fitting a few existing jigsaw pieces together in some new combination. Some of the pieces don't exist yet.

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#589

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This comment reads like an OpenAI employee typed this...

Ha, read my comments over the past days. I was giving a strong benefit of doubt to the board.

Well, you could be bitter, twisted, and cynical

I like you better being generous....

Re: OpenAI researchers warned board of AI breakthrough ahead of CEO ouster

#590

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except that there's a fairly large body of evidence that persuasion is of limited use in shifting political opinion. So the persuasion would need to be applied to something other than some sort of causative political-implication-laden argument.

Even if it were true that human persuasion is of limited use in shifting opinions, the parent posted is talking about superhuman persuasion. I don't think we should just assume those are equally effective.

Do you think any rhetoric could ever persuade you to you adopt the opposite general worldview of what you currently have? I'm positive that it could not for me. The reason for this is not because I'm obstinate, but because my worldview is not formed on persuasion, but on lived experience. And I think this is true for the overwhelming majority of people. It's why our views tend to change as we age, and experience more of the world.

You can even see this geographically. The reason many in South Texas might have a negative view of immigration while those in San Francisco might have a positive view of immigration is not because of persuasion differences, but because both places are strongly impacted by immigration but in very different ways. And this experience is what people associate with immigration in general, and so it forms people's worldview.

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