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San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

sfstandard.com

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Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#581

Post by cryptonector »

mbfg wrote: post #278
bluedino wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or if you call the police, they just never show up, or when they do, tell you not even bother filing a report. Citizen: Someone stole my backpack and laptop out of my car! Police: And?

Ok, imagine for me the society for which you can file a police report for a stolen backpack, and you relatively efficiently have your backpack returned, and the perpetrator brought to justice. What does that society look like? How does that happen?

That you won't get it back doesn't mean that it's not useful to count the crime. It won't get counted if not reported.

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#582

Post by ThePadawan »

diebeforei485 wrote: post #445
ThePadawan wrote: post #44

Worked for a company once who boasted surviving the hard times of the dot com bubble by selling their headquarters and renting it back until things got better. Has this happened yet or are owners still holding onto their real estate for own use?

There are no buyers. Nobody wants San Francisco office space.

The point isn't that a buyer wants office space, the buyer wants an investment that goes up in value.

That's the core issue, right?

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#584

Post by fmajid »

chrismcb wrote: post #579
fmajid wrote: post #551

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm a US expat (live in the UK) who is thus still registered to vote in San Francisco. Do us expats a favor and post your endorsements at least 2 months early. Our postal ballots are sent early and most sites procrastinate on their voter guides. For instance I filled and mailed my ballot for the June 2022 elections on April 28th, and I wish SFGate had published their analysis of the primary race for Insurance Commiss…

Is this actually legal?

Yes, of course, if you register as an overseas voter. You get to keep voting in the last place you lived. I couldn’t transfer my vote to Texas where it would do more good, for instance.

https://sfelections.sfgov.org/military-and-overseas-voting

When my daughter turns 18 and if we haven’t returned to the US by then, she’ll also get to vote in her hometown of San Francisco.

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#585

Post by mrep »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #31
ryanSrich wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Turns out prices have to go down when the fed doubles rates. By my math, a 30% correction is needed to make up the difference in terms of monthly affordability - meaning a $500k house at 6% is the same as a $750k house at 3%.

Yeah, but a lot of people are willing to bet that rates won't stay high for long. If the average person is buying a house to hold for 7 years - and you're expecting only 2 years to be at elevated rates before you can refinance at 3% or less - then you'll settle for a lot less than a 30% correction. Does your 30% figure doesn't include property tax - or mortgage interest deduction? If you include those - I'd imagine y…

Doesn't matter if they are willing to make that bet if the bank isn't and banks are going to be underwriting their loan based on the current mortgage payment and interest rate.

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#586

Post by throwaway0a5e »

CamperBob2 wrote: post #441
ceejayoz wrote: post #419

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Put another way, the guy stealing your catalytic converter isn't doing it because he's scared to burn your house down. He's doing it because he has every reasonable expectation of getting away with it and getting paid for it. Catalytic converter thefts are up everywhere, though. Not just in liberal bastions, but in places like Arkansas and Mississippi, too. Cops saying "if you just gave us more money and toys, we'd…

True to some extent, certainly. But if a cop in Arkansas catches you stealing a catalytic converter, the rest of your day is going to play out very differently compared to how things would have gone in SF.

Heck, if an uninvolved local sees you stealing a catalytic converter in Arkansas there's a "high enough you can't write it off" chance you'll get their footwear on your ribcage. In SF the bystanders will probably just film.

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#588

Post by urthor »

fmajid wrote: post #584
chrismcb wrote: post #579

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is this actually legal?

Yes, of course, if you register as an overseas voter. You get to keep voting in the last place you lived. I couldn’t transfer my vote to Texas where it would do more good, for instance. https://sfelections.sfgov.org/military-and-overseas-voting When my daughter turns 18 and if we haven’t returned to the US by then, she’ll also get to vote in her hometown of San Francisco.

This makes sense in the same vein that a 2 ASCII character maximum variable length to save space made sense in 1978.

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#589

Post by yazaddaruvala »

diebeforei485 wrote: post #556
yazaddaruvala wrote: post #536

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They don't look at all overdoses, only the overdoses that happen at these sites. Overdoses that happen at the sites are overdoses that don't happen on the street. More studies: - https://www.emcdda.europa.eu/system/files/publications/2734/... - https://www.aafp.org/pubs/afp/issues/2022/0500/p454.html - https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2015435 - https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34218964/ More articles: - ht…

> Overdoses that happen at the sites are overdoses that don't happen on the street. The problem is we're continuing to encourage open air street usage of drugs (for example by giving out bags of needles). For safe consumption sites to be accepted, that should stop. Additionally, it helps to have more frequent cleanups of trash around the site, giving local residents a hotline, more regular police patrols of the surro…

> The problem is we're continuing to encourage open air street usage of drugs

Ok, so we agree. We need safe injection sites to get any and all usage off the streets.

> it helps to have more frequent cleanups of trash around the site, giving local residents a hotline, more regular police patrols of the surrounding blocks, etc.

Cool, so we agree. We need to ensure amazing execution of safe injection sites.

> Some of them, you can actually get drugs prescribed by a doctor. This is more sensible than relying on the "market" to provide drugs.

I’m not sure what you mean by “market” here. In this thread we were talking about the state sponsoring free drugs for consumption at safe injection sites. There is no “market”.

Re: San Francisco braces for commercial real estate crash

#590

Post by yazaddaruvala »

TedShiller wrote: post #561
yazaddaruvala wrote: post #538

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great! Clearly we both agree! Because the data shows that these facilities actual lead to more people quitting these addictions. Safe injection sites are always (to my knowledge) used as the start of a funnel to educational materials about rehab. As such long term wins are even better for the tax payer than what I said above. Especially when these people rejoin the workforce.

It's a perfect example of Biden Logic (TM): The best way to stop addicts from using drugs is to give them even more free drugs.

> Biden Logic(TM)

/sigh why does Biden need to be involved in our conversation. For anyone who reads my comments please don’t take this as a pro or against Biden thing. Right now I’m exclusively interested in critical analysis of free drugs at safe injection sites and helping people disconfirm their biases.

> The best way to stop addicts from using drugs is to give them even more free drugs.

It’s definitely counter intuitive, but 30 years of data speaks for itself (please see my other posts for citations).

Now that you have the data, you can choose.

Chose to help everyone in society including yourself, by changing your initial assumptions because of real world data. You could even just go half way, we need more data before I’m convinced but at least with the data we do have I’ll start considering the possibility.

Or you can choose to hurt people, including yourself, by holding onto your incorrect intuition. Why would you want to be this type of person? I’d love to know.

I hope one day everyone chooses to first and foremost disconfirm their biases, use more data to drive decisions, and starts actually helping create the society they say they want.

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