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Wisconsin Supreme Court strikes down stay-at-home order that closed businesses

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Re: Wisconsin Supreme Court strikes down stay-at-home order that closed businesses

#581

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think it's tortured. I think it's a reasonable reading of Wisconsin statutes. Maybe you're torturing your reading of the decision. Or maybe I'm a shill. Any readers that stumble onto this sub-thread will just have to figure it out for themselves, and I suggest they read the opinion because it speaks for itself.

They should also read Judge Dallet's dissent which makes the same points I've been making.

Admittedly I've not read it -- I assume it's reasonable, as I find the majority opinion to be. That's the thing with these court decisions: often you can justify either outcome in reasonable ways. There's no need to vilify anyone here -- it's truly distasteful what's been on display regarding this decision.

Re: Wisconsin Supreme Court strikes down stay-at-home order that closed businesses

#582

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The 1.5 week old CDC report [1] shows same hospitalization rate as the flu for the vulnerable 65+ population, and less for the vulnerable Is the hospitalization rate based on how many got the disease or among the general population?

It’s across the whole population over the preceding week. The CDC report key takeaways section is recommended reading

So why would the rate of hospitalizations be comparable if we are having lockdowns that reduce cases of covid a lot?

In fact, the fact that the rate of hospitalizations is similar even with broad lockdowns is proof that covid is much more dangerous than the flu. Imagine the rate if there were no lockdowns.

Re: Wisconsin Supreme Court strikes down stay-at-home order that closed businesses

#583

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know what you're responding to. I said nothing about hospital capacity.

He is responding to your comment about the New York scenario. The original justification for the shutdown was that we would run out of hospital capacity. New York always had ample capacity in hospitals, and the USNS comfort and Javits center hospital were almost empty. Governor projected a lack of capacity which certainly caused fear, but it’s a very different thing. In terms on NYC deaths there has been many stories…

It's still unrelated to my comment. In fact, to the extent that you're trying to tie them together, it proves the opposite of the claims you're making.

My original parent was contrasting the two states, with the following:

>New York is such an outlier in terms of death rates that it should be a totally separate conversation.

My point was that NY shouldn't be a "totally different conversation", but that we should look to NY as a cautionary tale WRT potential outcomes without sufficient mitigation. The fact that hospital capacity was not overrun in either state underscores the validity of the comparison.

>many stories of incompetence and mismanagement...it’s a question if lack of proper care for a non covid preexisting condition...not seeking care out of fear is often the true cause of death".

This and the rest of your comment are, frankly, pure conjecture that seems to start with your conclusion. However, we know the virus is deadly and that COVID would likely be a serious contributing factor to deaths, even in the presence of pre-existing conditions. It's no secret that pre-existing conditions are a prime COVID risk factor and, as it happens, this country has a high incidence of pre-existing conditions. This was an openly stated primary force in our mitigation efforts. But, here you seem to be presenting it as some previously hidden revelation over which we should dismiss these deaths.

In sum, it's disingenuous to parse out all of the knowns and unknowns into an overall conclusion that lockdowns were somehow unnecessary. We know enough to know that stopping the spread of the virus prevents large numbers of unnecessary deaths--even (and especially) among at-risk populations.

Re: Wisconsin Supreme Court strikes down stay-at-home order that closed businesses

#584

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He is responding to your comment about the New York scenario. The original justification for the shutdown was that we would run out of hospital capacity. New York always had ample capacity in hospitals, and the USNS comfort and Javits center hospital were almost empty. Governor projected a lack of capacity which certainly caused fear, but it’s a very different thing. In terms on NYC deaths there has been many stories…

It's still unrelated to my comment. In fact, to the extent that you're trying to tie them together, it proves the opposite of the claims you're making. My original parent was contrasting the two states, with the following: > New York is such an outlier in terms of death rates that it should be a totally separate conversation. My point was that NY shouldn't be a "totally different conversation", but that we should loo…

> My point was that NY shouldn't be a "totally different conversation", but that we should look to NY as a cautionary tale WRT potential outcomes without sufficient mitigation. The fact that hospital capacity was not overrun in either state underscores the validity of the comparison.

We definitely agree there. However, why do you think NYC is not an example of lockdowns not working and that we should instead isolate the vulnerable populations? Its both the most severe lockdowned place and the place with the highest coronavirus death rate.

Also, most states are now open or are reopening. We are not seeing spikes in coronavirus cases or deaths, and we are instead seeing huge drops in deaths per week directly undermining the heavy handed lockdowns [3]. Also, despite each worker of Wallmart, Target, Whole Foods, Safeways, Wallgreens etc being exposed to thousands a day not a single store was closed due to covid outbreaks. How come that is the case?

Locking down non-vulnerable populations is what I think is unjustified, and the evidence I present show that the heavy handed lockdown doesn't reliably reduce deaths and that targeted isolations of vulnerable populations does reliably reduce deaths. One shared component of sweden and NYC [1,2] is that they didn't properly mitigate for vulnerable populations. Sweden is mitigating by isolating vulnerable populations while NYC isn't [1]. However, NYC somehow managed to have the most severe lockdown and by far the highest death rate.

TLDR; If you have to isolate the vulnerable to significantly reduce deaths in both lockdown and non-lockdown, and lockdown doesn't reliably make a difference. Why not just go with the more effective targeted mitigations and drop the ineffective isolation of all?

[1] https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-sent-recovering-corona... [2] https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/sweden/2020-05-12/sw... [3] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Re: Wisconsin Supreme Court strikes down stay-at-home order that closed businesses

#585
post #531

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This same debate is happening in every country in the world, including ones that don't have an election in six months. They get CNN in more than 200 countries. > It's a very clear consequence of what the two parties value. So it's normal for the Democrats to be the conservative party banging the "save American lives at all costs" drum and the Republicans to be the ones worried about blue collar workers and people l…

The democrats have always banged that drum on domestic issues, and the republicans have always prioritized businesses over public and worker safety, so, yes?

> The democrats have always banged that drum on domestic issues

So the Democrats are usually the ones in favor of authoritarian War on Drugs measures to prevent domestic overdose deaths? Mandatory employee drug testing? Having the police arrest inconvenient/"unsanitary" protesters?

> the republicans have always prioritized businesses over public and worker safety

Walmart, Pfizer and Netflix are doing fine. The airlines are screwed, but that's already done, they can't go bankrupt twice at once and people aren't going to want to get on a plane for recreational purposes anytime soon even if we reopen.

It's workers who are suffering the most from continuing to not have a paycheck. If you look at what labor unions are saying, it's more along the lines of "here's how we think we should reopen" and not "we don't want to reopen" -- is it normal for Republicans and labor unions to be on the same page?

Re: Wisconsin Supreme Court strikes down stay-at-home order that closed businesses

#586

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>They can. Which doesn't answer the question if they have . This isn't some partisan bill but a force of nature, and if they are flexing their powers for the sake of posturing then more Wisconsin citizens will die if there isn't a plan presented by the "powers and perogatives" of legislature.

Nonsense. See South Dakota, Georgia, etc. If just one State not doing what you think they should be doing spells disaster for the U.S. (and the world), then we've already crossed that Rubicon.

We're talking about Wisconsin legislature here and they have not.

Re: Wisconsin Supreme Court strikes down stay-at-home order that closed businesses

#587
post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have some specific examples of the latter?

Do you have any specific examples that aren't the latter? That sounds facetious, but I'm being serious. Go read the United States Code, or the Code of Federal Regulations, and tell me how many of those laws and regulations you think really are within the limited powers granted to the Federal government by the Constitution and the Bill of Rights. Go read Supreme Court decisions like Wickard v. Filburn or Kelo v. New L…

Thank you, I was genuinely curious as to what you had in mind -- I came up with a lot of possible examples, hence the question.

I think it's going to come down to definitions unfortunately. For example, what do we mean when we say

> enforce the minimum basic rules that are necessary to have a civil society

One could argue that Brown v Board of Education had little to do with policy and more to do with basic rules for civil society. For your other examples, I can see compelling arguments for why the federal government took this actions (with a justifiable reason). Many of them fall under the fact that the government is ultimately a forum for resolving large scale organizational challenges that the market is not properly incentivized to tackle.

Yes, these powers can be abused, and while restricting the government from acting in certain ways may be a method of curtailing those abuses, it would be a tradeoff in terms of the government effectively being able to accomplish its purpose.

> But in either case, you're arguing from an implicit assumption that the government is supposed to fix problems, and you're arguing about whether it did a good or a bad job. Nobody ever even asks why the government is intruding in all these activities in the first place, if it's just supposed to be enforcing the basic rules needed to have a civil society.

It builds down to a tension between "fix problems" and "enforce basic rules needed to have a civil society." Even in the situations you cite, the two can be in conflict. I suspect a lot of the people that one perceives as trying to use the government to "fix problems" may very well be seeing themselves as "enforcing basic rules needed to have a civil society."

Re: Wisconsin Supreme Court strikes down stay-at-home order that closed businesses

#588

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is this an argument for lack of consumer demand? Keeping things shut down isn't going to help these people get back to work.

Here’s one example. Restaurants will likely be operating at 50% capacity or below for the foreseeable future. Their business model does not work at 50% capacity. Many, many jobs are not coming back.

Sure, but that's artificially limited supply. Which isn't an argument for saying there's lack of demand.

Re: Wisconsin Supreme Court strikes down stay-at-home order that closed businesses

#589

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's still unrelated to my comment. In fact, to the extent that you're trying to tie them together, it proves the opposite of the claims you're making. My original parent was contrasting the two states, with the following: > New York is such an outlier in terms of death rates that it should be a totally separate conversation. My point was that NY shouldn't be a "totally different conversation", but that we should loo…

> My point was that NY shouldn't be a "totally different conversation", but that we should look to NY as a cautionary tale WRT potential outcomes without sufficient mitigation. The fact that hospital capacity was not overrun in either state underscores the validity of the comparison. We definitely agree there. However, why do you think NYC is not an example of lockdowns not working and that we should instead isolate…

Your analysis is riddled with errors.

Foremost, it's far too early to make the call on the effects of "re-opening".

Another misleading assertion is the idea that our "re-opened" state is anything like the state of affairs pre-lockdown. That is, many, many people are still virtually locked down--voluntarily.

Yet another issue your analysis overlooks is the measures we actually did take prior to full lockdown, wherein we in fact suggested that vulnerable populations self-isolate. This was not effective in slowing the spread; hence, the lockdown escalation.

Still another issue is your somewhat facile assessment of Walmart and other retail scenarios. The relevant metric here would not be closure of stores but transmission of the virus, as many people would be asymptomatic including, likely, workers. Yet, they may still have transmitted the virus.

But the real problem is that you omit the fact that measures we took to limit store hours, numbers of concurrent shoppers, in-store distancing, etc. and the resulting behavior changes (including fewer trips) meant bodies per store were dramatically reduced, helping to undercut transmission. And, the point there is that accommodations for essential trips to the store under such prescribed conditions were provided as part of the lockdown. So, you are trying to use the lockdown design itself as proof that the lockdown was unnecessary.

TLDR; This is frequently the story with these anti-lockdown claims: a revisionist look back at why the lockdown was "unnecessary", using precisely the design and benefits of the lockdown itself to make the case.

Re: Wisconsin Supreme Court strikes down stay-at-home order that closed businesses

#590

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> My point was that NY shouldn't be a "totally different conversation", but that we should look to NY as a cautionary tale WRT potential outcomes without sufficient mitigation. The fact that hospital capacity was not overrun in either state underscores the validity of the comparison. We definitely agree there. However, why do you think NYC is not an example of lockdowns not working and that we should instead isolate…

Your analysis is riddled with errors. Foremost, it's far too early to make the call on the effects of "re-opening". Another misleading assertion is the idea that our "re-opened" state is anything like the state of affairs pre-lockdown. That is, many, many people are still virtually locked down--voluntarily. Yet another issue your analysis overlooks is the measures we actually did take prior to full lockdown, wherein…

Your criticism does not make sense at all. I wish you addressed my questions and criticisms of your argument instead of bringing up new points, but I'll address your new points as well.

> Another misleading assertion is the idea that our "re-opened" state is anything like the state of affairs pre-lockdown

You have a faulty assumption that spread factor was reduced due to lockdown. 7 states did not close down (Arkansas, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming), and many states that locked down has been open for weeks now [1]. We have not see a spike in neither of these scenarios relative to the still locked down states.

Again: there is no correlation between being locked down and reduced spread factor. Quite to the contrary NYC and other places under heavy lock-down has been the worst affected.

> Still another issue is your somewhat facile assessment of Walmart and other retail scenarios. The relevant metric here would not be closure of stores but transmission of the virus, as many people would be asymptomatic including, likely, workers. Yet, they may still have transmitted the virus.

You honestly that all those workers are symptomatic in a high exposure scenario at a lower rate than the general population?

And you honestly claiming that a highly contagious virus that you claim has such a high likelihood of hospitalization and death that we all need to be on lockdown, somehow doesn't have this effect to the same degree on grocery workers that are exposed more than anyone? All ages work in grocery stores [3].

Grocery store workers are heroes, but I didn't know they were superheroes.

> But the real problem is that you omit the fact that measures we took to limit store hours, numbers of concurrent shoppers, in-store distancing

That doesn't make sense if the desire is to reduce peak traffic. Limiting store hours with a similar amount of shoppers increase people per hour of shopping, and limiting concurrent shoppers cause huge lines outside. Arguably this may increase virus exposure.

In-store-distancing: covid is transmitted on and can stay alive on metals, plastics as well as other inside surfaces for an extended period. Up to a day on cardboard.

* scientific facts on ineffectiveness of major lockdown measures

N95 masks work: mask to filter out 95% of particles larger than 0.3 microns. Coronavirus is between 0.06 and 0.14 microns.

Social distancing doesn't stop you from being exposed by:

- virus suspended in droplets smaller than five micrometers can stay suspended for about a half-hour

- virus stays alive up to a day on everything in a grocery store (or any other store or delivery container); cardboard, plastics, metals

Wearing gloves: virus actually lives longer on plastic gloves and gloves in general worsens spread [2]

TLDR; Only highly targeted and managed approaches has worked in limiting deaths, such as isolating the vulnerable. The lockdown measures and protective gear people wear are not stopping the virus spread due to virus size as well as how it spreads, but it is an excellent signal of obedience to nonsense measures.

[1] https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/reopening-america-see-w... [2] https://www.orthospinenews.com/2020/04/23/spreading-coronavi... [3] https://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat18b.htm

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