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3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

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Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#581

Post by chipperyman573 »

arrosenberg wrote: post #516
chipperyman573 wrote: post #454

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I think it's weird to point at Nancy Pelosi given the current state of politics. McConnell and the republicans denounce any Democratic bill that is passed as partisan, so why would this be any different? This is not about the current state of politics. People are dying. Immediate measures to fix this need to be taken to save their lives. This is not the time for politicians to push their agenda, even they believe it…

I agree philosophically, but that's not how the world works. First, we have enough smart people to do both things at once. Secondly, if you have leverage, you use it. Making sure people can vote for a party that will properly manage disasters like this one seems like a top-tier priority right now.

> we have enough smart people to do both things at once

not if they keep getting steamrolled by the opposite party when they insert their partisan clauses into an emergency bill

> if you have leverage, you use it

Again, people are dying. This is not the time to use leverage.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#582

Post by steveeq1 »

bigbob2 wrote: post #576
steveeq1 wrote: post #295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. It's easy to fall in the trap of "human life above all else", but there comes a time where tradeoffs become reasonable. Society already does this with the automobile. 36,000 people die every year for the convenience of driving, which I feel is a completely reasonable tradeoff, and this is not a controversy, at least in the united states.

That seems to only include the accident mortality rate. It would likely be even higher if you included deaths from automobile air pollution. Unrelated but curious, why do you feel it's a completely reasonable tradeoff? In my mind, automobiles have led to a class (and historically race) divide which further segregates and polarizes sects of society.

I seriously doubt cars cause a "racial divide" in any reasonable way.

As for whether I think it's a "reasonable tradeoff". I don't know, but maybe because it's not brought up as controversial by society. This is not a good reason, I suppose, but I haven't really thought about it. I guess I'm mindlessly mimicing the ethics of people around me.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#583

Post by ImaCake »

tuna-piano wrote: post #574
rubber_duck wrote: post #35

And this is just the start. While I think the US response to Corona was slower than the response in my country I feel the US is the only country that's seriously discussing economic repercussions and debating the medical experts. In EU (at least in my country) it's doctors running things and we are in "stop the pandemic at all cost". Everyone is in panic due to Italy situation. But doctors are only trained to see the…

I think this is a false choice. As Bill gates said, we can't say- "Hey, keep going to restaurants, go buy new houses, ignore that pile of bodies over in the corner. We want you to keep spending because there’s maybe a politician who thinks GDP growth is all that counts" The truth is that it seems our choice is relatively simple: 1) Allow the virus to spread rapidly, overload the health system, kill many people, until…

People just dont get exponentials. They don't understand that if you get a total of a million cases in a week's time, most of those cases appear on day 6. They can't see how 1/7th of those cases turns into a million. Every country should be hoping that whoever calls the shots understands math.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#584

Post by marcosdumay »

malandrew wrote: post #389
claudeganon wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This goes to show just how sharp of an impact the coronavirus pandemic has had relative to past recessions. Even the '08 Financial Crisis took MONTHS to unravel. I think we need to couple the two events a little more closely. The 2008 Financial Crisis accelerated inequality, political instability, asset inflation, and the rise of precarious work to such a degree that the damage of this hit is being greatly compound…

> the rise of precarious work I'm not going to disagree that there was a rise in precarious work, but I think many people don't realize how valuable having this work as option is. Brazil has been economically struggling for almost a decade now, which is the same decade when this type of work appeared. For many people in Brazil this has been a godsend. It's provided an employment option where previously there would ha…

It's not that simple, because up to some point, precarious work outcompetes non-precarious work, reducing the later one.

You will see all kinds of arguments and researches, but actually nobody is really sure about what that point is, and if it is a net positive or negative for workers. To make it worse, Brazil is in a kind of unique situation because official work is extremely regulated, while precarious work is well accepted and widespread (and not as new as you think), so one can not even apply the lessons from most of the world.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#585

Post by closeparen »

smallgovt wrote: post #512
rubber_duck wrote: post #35

And this is just the start. While I think the US response to Corona was slower than the response in my country I feel the US is the only country that's seriously discussing economic repercussions and debating the medical experts. In EU (at least in my country) it's doctors running things and we are in "stop the pandemic at all cost". Everyone is in panic due to Italy situation. But doctors are only trained to see the…

For those who are willing to go through this thought exercise, if we're purely trying to maximize humankind's total well-being, how much wealth would we have to create to counteract one coronavirus victim's loss of life? Here's a set of 3 questions that I think leads to a possible answer. - How much would someone have to pay you to be put to sleep for 8 years, during which period you have no sensory input or output?…

When is an X% increase in GDP per capita worth a Y% chance of death? Illegal migrants perform this calculus every day. Their decisions may be instructive.

You don't see people crowding onto fishing boats or hiking treacherous desert to escape Europe ($38k). We can probably afford to fall to that level. It'll be a major lifestyle adjustment, but a doable one.

Looking down the scale to Latin America: Chile, Panama, and Argentina are pretty okay (~$15k). Less so for your typical American middle-class suburbanite, but people have good lives there. Even Brazil is decent (~$10k). But once we start pushing into Mexico, Colombia, Ecuador, etc ($6-7k) the natives start accepting pretty significant risks to get out.

US GDP per capita is about $60k. Although it will be a terrifying shock, we can probably fall to about 10% of that before things are truly desperate. But once we're talking about killing more than 90% of the economy: yes, people might in fact prefer death.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#586

Post by Mediterraneo10 »

tuna-piano wrote: post #574
rubber_duck wrote: post #35

And this is just the start. While I think the US response to Corona was slower than the response in my country I feel the US is the only country that's seriously discussing economic repercussions and debating the medical experts. In EU (at least in my country) it's doctors running things and we are in "stop the pandemic at all cost". Everyone is in panic due to Italy situation. But doctors are only trained to see the…

I think this is a false choice. As Bill gates said, we can't say- "Hey, keep going to restaurants, go buy new houses, ignore that pile of bodies over in the corner. We want you to keep spending because there’s maybe a politician who thinks GDP growth is all that counts" The truth is that it seems our choice is relatively simple: 1) Allow the virus to spread rapidly, overload the health system, kill many people, until…

> ignore that pile of bodies over in the corner.

“That pile of bodies” is mainly the elderly and terminally ill, demographics that society already seems to have little problem ignoring. Even now the worry among most of the population seems to be that those demographics will overwhelm the health system, preventing everyone else from getting medical attention. But this could be solved by triaging, which is rumoured to already be the de facto standard in Italy (i.e. if you are over 60 and show coronavirus symptoms, other patients take priority over you).

The longer the lockdowns in various countries go on, the stronger I think societal pressure for solution 1) – with triaging to avoid overloading the health system – is going to get.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#587

Post by mneubrand »

tuna-piano wrote: post #574
rubber_duck wrote: post #35

And this is just the start. While I think the US response to Corona was slower than the response in my country I feel the US is the only country that's seriously discussing economic repercussions and debating the medical experts. In EU (at least in my country) it's doctors running things and we are in "stop the pandemic at all cost". Everyone is in panic due to Italy situation. But doctors are only trained to see the…

I think this is a false choice. As Bill gates said, we can't say- "Hey, keep going to restaurants, go buy new houses, ignore that pile of bodies over in the corner. We want you to keep spending because there’s maybe a politician who thinks GDP growth is all that counts" The truth is that it seems our choice is relatively simple: 1) Allow the virus to spread rapidly, overload the health system, kill many people, until…

There's no guarantee that option 3 can be accomplished in the US. We might aim for it and realize that we're only accomplishing #2 and now inflicted maximum economic damage on top of it.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#588

Post by s1artibartfast »

pjc50 wrote: post #181
scottLobster wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure if this was your intent, but "sacrificing millions for the sake of the Market" sounds like you're trying to shift away from the point that right now about 3.28 million more folks (probably more) are wondering how to pay their rent/mortgages and feed their children. If this lockdown continues indefinitely the death numbers from the economic fallout will likely eclipse those of the pandemic. But nah, the "mark…

This is where it's very important to distinguish between financial conditions and material conditions. Feeding children and supplying respirators and masks are material conditions, dependent on the production and distribution systems. Paying rent and mortgage, on the other hand, isn't material . If you don't pay it nothing material changes - it's not an iron law of the world in the way that hunger is, evictions are a…

Economic conditions have real and immediate health consequences too.

For example, in 2010 US unemployment briefly grew about 6% to a total of 10% in the US and there were 40,000 additional deaths from cancer alone[1]. When you consider heart disease, other indications, drug abuse, and suicide, the numbers are much greater. The often cited number of 40k for each percent unemployment may not be far off if these factors are taken together.

This trend also holds true in the OECD where social programs are more common because there are still budgetary constraints on centralized healthcare.

[1] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...

Edit: Here is a Meta-analysis showing that the risk of death was 63% higher among those who experienced unemployment in the US AND Europe

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3070776/

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#589

Post by arrosenberg »

chipperyman573 wrote: post #581
arrosenberg wrote: post #516

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree philosophically, but that's not how the world works. First, we have enough smart people to do both things at once. Secondly, if you have leverage, you use it. Making sure people can vote for a party that will properly manage disasters like this one seems like a top-tier priority right now.

> we have enough smart people to do both things at once not if they keep getting steamrolled by the opposite party when they insert their partisan clauses into an emergency bill > if you have leverage, you use it Again, people are dying. This is not the time to use leverage.

> not if they keep getting steamrolled by the opposite party when they insert their partisan clauses into an emergency bill

How have they gotten steamrolled? The Senate Dems won a ton of concessions, and the House Dems will win a bunch more. Getting steamrolled would be giving the Republicans everything they want just to get table scraps, which is what has happened in the past.

> Again, people are dying. This is not the time to use leverage.

People die every day. These "partisan clauses" will save more lives in the long run. Its silly to pass a bad bill to bail out the Cruise lines just to say we did something when we have the opportunity to help people. It's definitely not on the Democrats to reduce their demands on behalf of working people. The onus is on the Republicans to do right by the people of this country, fund the emergency measures we need in the short term, and pass the "partisan clauses" that will make sure people can survive and operate quasi-normally in the long term in case this isn't a quick fix.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#590

Post by rdslw »

cloverich wrote: post #224
mikorym wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not from the US, so not quite in phase with how things work. What can this tell us about actual unemployment and actual people that won't have a job now (short, medium or forever)?

Most businesses do not have capacity to pay workers and rather than hold out, some are terminating immediately so their employees can claim unemployment benefits. I know for example of Dental offices (which in Texas are mandated closed until April 21st I believe) are doing this, but have every intention of re-hiring the same staff the moment they are allowed to re-open. I'm not sure this is the typical case, but its…

I have to say, agressiveness of USA capitalism is shocking to watch.

moral bonus: ability to 'explain' it that is just because you can claim unemployment benefit.

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