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Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

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Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#581

Post by koolba »

ashelmire wrote: post #395
ben_jones wrote: post #373

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the rational definition of Deep State is just the government “lifers” who stay in significant spheres of influence for most of their career. I.e. key defense, intelligence, financial, etc positions.

It's a term meant to slander professionals and imply that we should constantly rotate in the current political favorites into positions for which they are not qualified.

Alternatively we should allow career professionals to act as a dampener on the will of the people when it does not align with their own views.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#582

Post by redler »

asdf21 wrote: post #564
specialist wrote: post #444

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I now doubt IQ, values, beliefs are even a factor. A relation of mine went from studying marine biology to full on fundie. Creationism, climate denial, etc. Huge Trump supporter too, of course. Can any one explain to me how a one time scientist now doubts evolution?

It's a belief system that is naturally selected for, for one thing. How many liberal atheists do you know with 4+ kids, versus conservatives?

Ah yes, the Idiocracy[1] effect.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idiocracy

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#583

Post by redler »

chronic849a wrote: post #340
mwfunk wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

WRT making billions of dollars, clearly he didn't. WRT getting elected, he got 3mil fewer votes than his opponent, so you can thank the dysfunction of the EC. WRT to the votes he did get, it's pretty obvious- people dumber than he is, who are apparently blind to seeing his completely obvious con artist act and voting for him, that's how. By completely obvious I mean, the-sky-is-blue, 1+1=2 obvious. That's how obvious…

> it's pretty obvious- people dumber than he is, who are apparently blind to seeing his completely obvious con artist act and voting for him, that's how. Bay area engineer here. Did Google for a few years, did a B2B startup, acquired by FANG, now lead a team of 30. Good relationships with family and physically fit. I voted for Trump. Statistically, I'm not dumb.

Can you talk a bit about how you came to that choice?

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#584

Post by panarky »

joshlegs wrote: post #528
dobleboble wrote: post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"federal government" is probably a better term than "deep state" unless you're intentionally trying to be inflammatory...

hell, or even just good ole 'institutionalism'. "Deep state" sure does imply conspiracies afoot, and it's hardly such a thing. really it's just plain ole bureaucracy

Yikes, this whole thread is so provincial.

Yes, the US president is an economic imbecile, but $50 billion dollars in tariffs is a drop in the ocean of the $100 trillion global bond market.

This is a much, much bigger deal than US politics or a US trade war.

Interest rates are negative on $15 trillion worth of debt. All German government bonds have negative rates, all the way out to 30 years.

Policymakers don't like to say the word "deflation" out loud, because even talking about it could make it happen.

But when the economy softens, and central banks have no more ammunition left to stimulate the economy, deflation could be the terrifying result.

Negative long-term rates are what you would expect in a deflationary economy. And, yes, you can have a deflationary economy even while some prices are increasing.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#585

Post by _jahh »

godtoldmetodoit wrote: post #550
wonderwonder wrote: post #359

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just my opinion but I think it will be worse than 2008 for normal people. Companies that are cash rich due to the tax cuts will use the recession as an excuse to execute deep labor cuts and boost their stock price. There is no longer a reason for executives to even pretend to care about employees as the one time bonus / stock buy backs after the tax cuts proved. Wells Fargo has already proven that the same rules that…

We need Andrew Yang, or somebody else to pick up the UBI idea, now. There's no time to slow play this and do a bunch of studies. We have enough data, somebody just needs to do it.

freedom dividend really is a more accurate and marketable term

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#586

Post by asdf21 »

redler wrote: post #582
asdf21 wrote: post #564

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a belief system that is naturally selected for, for one thing. How many liberal atheists do you know with 4+ kids, versus conservatives?

Ah yes, the Idiocracy[1] effect. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idiocracy

is being a genetic dead end really all that smart though?

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#587

Post by [deleted] »

pdonis wrote: post #553
ethbro wrote: post #327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Inflation is a consequence of money spent foolishly. The same arguments were made against the New Deal. Time will tell whether recapitalizing the American educational system and/or cost-limiting health care is wise or foolish.

> Inflation is a consequence of money spent foolishly No, it's a consequence of printing money as soon as the newly printed money gets out into the economy. The only reason the previous rounds of QE in the last decade didn't cause inflation was that practically all of it stayed in the banks' accounts at the Fed and never got loaned out, so it never actually got into the economy. > The same arguments were made against…

[deleted]

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#588

Post by blackflame7000 »

hnbroseph wrote: post #579
blackflame7000 wrote: post #473

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tariff money is supposed to subsidize the industries harmed by the tariff. There is an inequality in goods in which the US has a major advantage. To put it simply, it's much easier for us to grow soy than it is for China to replicate our technology. Furthermore, the Chinese economy is not doing nearly as well as the US which means we are in a position of power at the moment. It is extremely important that the US mini…

> a dose of medicine for the consumer seems like there's a risk of: higher labor and materials costs leading to higher prices, leading to lower sales, leading to reduced revenue, leading to workforce reductions, leading to lower sales, leading to reduced revenue, leading to workforce reductions... ie a basic recession spiral.

An efficient market prevents any sort of death spiral. The objective of a tariff, just like the objective of regulation, is to encourage/discourage a certain practice but that doesn't mean there aren't ways around them if they become overly burdensome. For example, when environmental regulations become too burdensome, outsource the job to a place where those regulations aren't present. This is why environmental laws can easily put American companies at an extreme disadvantage and should be carefully considered. A lot of the higher costs you are worried about are self-inflicted because of all the ridiculous overhead required to run a business now a days.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#589

Post by jganetsk »

JeremyNT wrote: post #265
empath75 wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the thought has always been that the president was using a high leverage negotiating strategy Whose thought? The people who didn't know that trump was an incompetent nutjob?

Regardless of the man himself, historically the "deep state" (for lack of a better phrase) has so much inertia that radical changes (even if desired) by the White House end up moderated. I think it's more correct to say that people are realizing that the old order under the president is gradually eroding and its moderating effects are weakening, which adds compounding risks (directly in the trade war stuff but also h…

I have always wondered if the "deep state" is just effectively a synonym for the US Constitution. Everyone working in the government has sworn an oath to the Constitution, not to Trump. Any perception of coordinated efforts unaligned with Trump could just be effects due to the masses in the government operating according to the Constitution.

Especially if you observe inertia and radical changes by the White House ending up moderated. That's by design and it's in the Constitution... and it's called "checks and balances".

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#590

Post by leereeves »

bduerst wrote: post #495
leereeves wrote: post #458

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He started 500 businesses, 6 went bankrupt.

It takes $100 and thirty minutes to start a business so that metric is useless. If anything, that many shell corps is suspect for money laundering, not business prowess.

Money laundering? Creating a corporation or LLC for each property is standard practice in the real estate business.

> ... usually, every investment property should be owned by a separate limited liability company that owns only one property and that is not engaged in any other business activity. The reason is simple: to maximize asset protection.

https://www.keytlaw.com/azllclaw/asset-protection/how-many-l...

And you really shouldn't go throwing around spurious accusations like that without any evidence.

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