Live data from Hacker News

xAI is looking more like a datacentre REIT than a frontier lab

martinalderson.com

571–580 of 580 posts

Re: xAI is looking more like a datacentre REIT than a frontier lab

#571

Sounds like a sound strategy to actually profit in during the AI craze, no?

If it is a craze then no. You want to sell shovels, not buy overpriced land during a gold rush. That said details matter. Can the DCs be reused for other in-demand things?

Isn't renting GPUs in this scenario renting shovels? GPUs do the "digging".

Re: xAI is looking more like a datacentre REIT than a frontier lab

#572
post #472

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Long term, or short term? Short term, money physically exists and gets spent, so if you wave a magic want of oversimplification and transition all labour to AI instantly, all the money currently in bank accounts and wallets gets spend on the same businesses it was already getting spent on, a lot of which gets spent on stuff from other businesses who have in this scenario also replaced all their labour with AI. Eventu…

I don't know. It just seems odd because money was used as an abstraction of labor and if labor disappears it seems like money has no fundamental value. If you can't pay people to do something (because machines are doing all the labor). Then people have no money and money has no value to people. Industrialization resulted in transition to service-based economy but this new wave of machines are being said to replace se…

I’ve also wondered about this.

Industrialization allowed people to shift human labor from agriculture to factories and such.

Seems like intellectual labor became more possible as people looked beyond subsistence but also more valuable since a greater population could drive demand for more than just subsistence related activities.

If both aren’t done by many humans, what’s left? Sports training and massage therapy? Sports training might not even be safe…

OTOH, my current lifestyle is already weird if I think about it. Developing software for a machine that I cannot make myself, whose raw materials I cannot obtain, using energy I cannot produce on my own — somehow entitles me to get a particular amount of goods and services from others including food, healthcare, entertainment, landscaping, and manufactured goods.

We live in interesting times…

Re: xAI is looking more like a datacentre REIT than a frontier lab

#575

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know. It just seems odd because money was used as an abstraction of labor and if labor disappears it seems like money has no fundamental value. If you can't pay people to do something (because machines are doing all the labor). Then people have no money and money has no value to people. Industrialization resulted in transition to service-based economy but this new wave of machines are being said to replace se…

I’ve also wondered about this. Industrialization allowed people to shift human labor from agriculture to factories and such. Seems like intellectual labor became more possible as people looked beyond subsistence but also more valuable since a greater population could drive demand for more than just subsistence related activities. If both aren’t done by many humans, what’s left? Sports training and massage therapy? Sp…

> If both aren’t done by many humans, what’s left? Sports training and massage therapy? Sports training might not even be safe…

Peacock tails.

As in, things where the effort itself is the point, to show off that you are capable of surviving when you consume resources so extravagantly on something other than (or even detrimental to) mere survival.

This includes stuff like hand-made art, being in a literal cult, extreme sports, and also refusing modern medical interventions/seeking out infections.

You may ask how someone can get paid for those things; I don't know, but we did manage to monetise talking to each other (ads on Facebook) and being locked in a house with some strangers while everyone's under surveillance cameras for a few weeks (TV show Big Brother).

Re: xAI is looking more like a datacentre REIT than a frontier lab

#576
post #557

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which has approximately zero to do with the anthropomorphization of the car itself. I could have chosen a different machine or tool to make my point.

> Which has approximately zero to do with the anthropomorphization of the car itself. You don't think people talking about the car doing things has anything to do with anthropomorphising the car?

No, in general I don't buy this idea that if we start using awkward phrases like "died by suicide" everywhere or avoiding phrases like "car accident" (which, despite what advocates claim, is a literally accurate description of unintentionally hitting someone or something with your car) but avoid changing any of the circumstances that cause the behavior it changes anything.

Re: xAI is looking more like a datacentre REIT than a frontier lab

#577

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>For the investors get their money back and the bubble to not implode, they functionally need to unemploy everyone in the US. More like $75/mo per user for the next 5-10 years if they can get 5% of the global population to pay that.

Can 5% of the population even pay for that? Some kind of huge increase in prices for compute and inference and companies maintaining large bills for AI assistants for key employees or teams (1000-2000$) seems most likely to me.

You dont think every company wouldn't be able to pay all of their full-time employees 1k less and switch it to AI spend?

Re: xAI is looking more like a datacentre REIT than a frontier lab

#578
post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's done quietly behind the scenes so leaders can blame something else for inflation. See "M2SL" or "TOTBKCR" on tradingview if you want to see inflation live.

>See "M2SL" or "TOTBKCR" on tradingview if you want to see inflation live. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTBKCR And you would have been massively wrong. People have been complaining about quantitative easing since post GFC, and if you took the figures at face value, those would imply inflation was nearly 100% between the end of GFC and before the pandemic. Whatever you th…

  those would imply inflation was nearly 100% between the end of GFC and before the pandemic
... yes? There's many things I'm paying double for at this point from 10-20 years ago. Maybe you haven't noticed?

Streaming services, diapers, energy, etc. the list is long if you look deep enough

Re: xAI is looking more like a datacentre REIT than a frontier lab

#579
post #557

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Which has approximately zero to do with the anthropomorphization of the car itself. You don't think people talking about the car doing things has anything to do with anthropomorphising the car?

No, in general I don't buy this idea that if we start using awkward phrases like "died by suicide" everywhere or avoiding phrases like "car accident" (which, despite what advocates claim, is a literally accurate description of unintentionally hitting someone or something with your car) but avoid changing any of the circumstances that cause the behavior it changes anything.

That's a completely different claim from the one you were making in your previous comment.

> avoid changing any of the circumstances that cause the behavior

The normalisation of unsafe driving is the circumstance that causes the behaviour. Just look at how the cultural shift in how drink-driving is perceived over the last few decades has changed the rate of it happening.

Re: xAI is looking more like a datacentre REIT than a frontier lab

#580

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Btw how much is MicroStrategy down since the year 2000?

It peaked at $18B market cap in 2000. Adjusted for inflation this is 18x1.93=34.74B. Today’s market cap is 45.35B. It isn’t down, but it isn’t up much since 2000.

I’m not sure why I used inflation instead of the risk free rate. I guess I’m rusty!

It has earned ever so slightly more than the risk free rate since 2000. On an absolute basis it is a terrible investment. On a relative basis it is also a terrible investment. On a risk adjusted basis? Abysmal.

Post reply on HN