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The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

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Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#571

Post by platevoltage »

jongjong wrote: post #386
yalogin wrote: post #30

Anthropic, OpenAI and Google are the standouts, but the main question for me is, why is this a war? In their own context China has greatly benefitted from this. They shored up their gpu design and manufacturing expertise. If this really is a war, trump is kneecapping the country with his lawlessness and eroding America’s good will. If the world cannot trust China with their data and they cannot trust the U.S. to prov…

Good that the US looks after its own interests but I think the line should be drawn before the sabotaging of other countries' economies. That strategy that cannot continue because Americans recognize it for what it is and that will create a toxic guilt and corruption culture which will harm it later like a new, worse version of DEI.

Sensationalizing the three letter acronyms of the month like "DEI" is the entire reason the guy doing the sabotaging was put into power in the first place. It was a non issue until these people made it one.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#572

Post by DiogenesKynikos »

teaearlgraycold wrote: post #476
chrisco255 wrote: post #443

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, its no accident that the U.S. is the number one economy, it comes from that kind of thinking across the populace. Complacency gets you conquered.

We could do with a little less of it IMO. But I have heard plenty from European expats about the entrenched complacency over there. I'm told people looking to improve some system or product run right into a wall of "Why bother?".

The flipside of that is that Europeans generally get way more vacation and free time, and as a consequence, can enjoy life more.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#573

Post by zombot »

yanhangyhy wrote: post #569

It sounds convincing because almost everything in the article is technically correct. But this mindset is problematic. AI is not some divine creation. It is built by humans. History has repeatedly shown that China is able to catch up, and often surpass others in the end. The article never really explains why AI is supposedly so unique that it guarantees the United States will inevitably win.

That's because AI is predominantly a religion. No proof required for anything because non-believers are just mentally defect.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#574

Post by xbmcuser »

People because of the past 10-20 years of free money have seem to forgotten what commercialization actually means. Ie a profitable product until the the product or service is able to make at least its running costs back it cant be considered commercial product I am not even talking about capital cost which looking at how fast computer hardware gets obsolete the actual costs are so much that none of the ai services can be considered commercial.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#575

Post by ndr42 »

yamillove wrote: post #550
khriss wrote: post #522

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> its no accident that the U.S. is the number one economy Sure, it's the largest by GDP, but how much of that GDP is filtering down to the regular people? Are Americans, on average happier and have better life outcomes than other developed nations?

So much that millions of people risk their lives or leave their families to come to this country. By this objective metric, it's literally the best country in the world's history. Is there another country that comes close?

The reason someone has to risk his life to get to the US could be because the US is the greatest country, at the same time you could also consider the influence that the US in its history has had on other countries so that the life of the people are miserable there.

(e.g. backing and installing dictatorships[1], contributing massively to climate change, ...)

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_dictatorship_of_Chile

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#576

Post by ben_w »

throwawayqqq11 wrote: post #525
GolfPopper wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the main question for me is, why is this a war? It's a war because the hinted promise behind the hype that the first organization to reach some as-yet-entirely-theoretical AGI that can bootstrap itself to godlike capabilities will then Install Planetary Overlord* and rule the world as near-deities themselves, with the rest of the (surviving) human race as their slaves. I think it's a nonsensical idea, but that's th…

I will never comprehend why a godlike deity wouldnt just skip all the wetware bs with us humans and conquer some other celestial body to make paperclips.

If the AI is so monomaniacally focused on paperclips (or anything else) to be a threat to us, going to some other planet is simply one of the early steps, but they absolutely will come back to Earth after all other resources have been consumed.

If such an AI can be reliably made to never ever come back to Earth, they were never a threat in the first place. Nobody knows how to fully test an AI's utility function yet, only randomly test inputs and hope the random distribution we chose is helpful; but every time a diffusion model's output is body horror, every time an LLM makes buggy code (and even every time it gets the pelican-on-bike wrong), this is an example of the test distribution not being good enough.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#577

Post by pvtmert »

elteto wrote: post #226
LucidLynx wrote: post #192

The winner in the long term will be the one that will deliver the best performance and low-memory ratio for local models. Anthropic, OpenAI and Mistral are just companies that are making money right now (still not profitable), but will lost their tractions and values in the long term. However, I am more appealing to see how OpenCode Go subscriptions will go in the future: cheaper than big techs, more tokens, and they…

Local models will never compete with large SOTA models, in the same way an iPhone doesn't compete with supercomputers doing nuclear simulations. They paths will differentiate and split. Probably SOTA models will eventually be locked down and only accessible to state actors because of how expensive they will be to run (already started with Mythos).

You don't need a (one huge) model to do everything. You need specialized & smaller models that are very good at specific tasks. Collaborating among themselves.

The fact that we see stagnation in terms of billions of parameters shows that efficiency does not scale linearly with the model size. More of an S shaped chart. The middle was Claude 3.5. Since then, it is more about integrating and collaborating with different systems.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#578

Post by 0rbiter »

pickleRick243 wrote: post #348
yalogin wrote: post #30

Anthropic, OpenAI and Google are the standouts, but the main question for me is, why is this a war? In their own context China has greatly benefitted from this. They shored up their gpu design and manufacturing expertise. If this really is a war, trump is kneecapping the country with his lawlessness and eroding America’s good will. If the world cannot trust China with their data and they cannot trust the U.S. to prov…

What are "U.S. countries"?

All the countries on the planet U.S..

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#579

Post by 0rbiter »

roenxi wrote: post #407
rayiner wrote: post #396

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The idea that America had “goodwill” in other countries before Trump is laughable. Where? Latin America? Africa? In the Muslim world? We bombed the hell out of all those places long before Trump. This most recent Iran war has generated less outrage in the Muslim world than the war against Iraq 20 years ago. American foreign policy since the 1950s, fixated on fighting communism and then terrorism, has meddled with so…

Although it is worth pointing out that something changed - prior to around 2010 the US had a financially dominant position and the internet was small. So it was feasible to totally ignore opinion in places like Latin America, Africa and the Muslim World. What we've been seeing in more recent years is that the US can't get away with that so easily. Countries like Iran, China, Russia and India are capable of pushing ba…

I think the fact that hate-spewing Trump finds so much resonance is evidence that the moral shock has already arrived. His followers seem to believe he's the antidote.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#580

Post by refurb »

rhubarbtree wrote: post #345
fullshark wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Down round = the destruction of the United States is ridiculous hyperbole.

If Anthropic does a down round, the US economy will crash. Not hyperbole. The US economy right now is based entirely on the AI bubble. This is an indisputable fact if you examine GDP stats and equities. That bubble is driven by (rational) over-investment in AI capacity. For that investment to continue, there must be demand for it. The demand for that infrastructure essentially lies in the hands of a few businesses: p…

You’re mistaking a few percentage of GDP growth via AI investment as “the US economy is based entirely on AI”

AI could disappear and we would have gone from 2% in Q1 to some fraction of 1%.

The sky would certainly not fall.

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