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Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

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Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#571

Post by WesleyJohnson »

adriand wrote: post #551
beepbooptheory wrote: post #546

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My sympathies go out to the friend's coworkers. They are probably wading through a bunch of stuff right now, but given the context you have given us, its probably not "scrum meetings".. I don't even care about the llm, I just want the confidence you have to assess that any given thing will take N weeks. You say 1-2 weeks.. thats like a big range! Something that "would" take 1 week takes ~2 hours, something that "woul…

> They are probably wading through a bunch of stuff right now, but given the context you have given us, its probably not "scrum meetings".. This made me laugh. Fair enough. ;) In terms of the time estimations: if your point is that I don't have hard data to back up my assertions, you're absolutely correct. I was always terrible at estimating how long something would take. I'm still terrible at it. But I agree with th…

Not to pick apart your analogy, but asserting that atheists haven't tried religion is misinformed.

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#572

Post by jjice »

r_lee wrote: post #507
tangotaylor wrote: post #498

> Engineers need to really lean in to the change in my opinion. I tried leaning in. I really tried. I'm not a web developer or game developer (more robotics, embedded systems). I tried vibe coding web apps and games. They were pretty boring. I got frustrated that I couldn't change little things. I remember getting frustrated that my game character kept getting stuck on imaginary walls and kept asking Cursor to fix it…

These posts like the one OP made is why I'm losing my mind. Like, is there truly an agentic way to go 10x or is there some catch? At this point while I'm not thrilled about the idea of just "vibe coding" all the time, I'm fine with facing reality. But I keep having the same experience as you, or rather leaning more on that supercharged Google/SO replacement or just a "can you quickly make this boring func here that d…

> or just a "can you quickly make this boring func here that does xyz" "also add this" or for bash scripts etc.

I still write most of the interesting code myself, but when it comes to boring, tedious work (that's usually fairly repetitive, but can't be well abstracted any more), that's when I've found gen AI to be a huge win.

It's not 10x, because a lot of the time, I'm still writing code normally. For very specific, boring things (that also are usually my least favorite parts of code to write), it's fantastic and it really is a 10x. If you amortize that 10x over all the time, it's more like a 1.5x to 3x in my experience, but it saves my sanity.

Things like implementing very boring CRUD endpoints that have enough custom logic that I can't use a good abstraction and writing the associated tests.

I would dread doing work like that because it was just so mind numbing. Now, I've written a bunch of Cursor rules (that was actually pretty fun) so I can now drop in a Linear ticket description and have it get somewhere around 95% done all at once.

Now, if I'm writing something that is interesting, I probably want to work on it myself purely because it's fun, but also because the LLM may suck at it (although they're getting pretty damn good).

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#573

Post by vbezhenar »

r_lee wrote: post #507
tangotaylor wrote: post #498

> Engineers need to really lean in to the change in my opinion. I tried leaning in. I really tried. I'm not a web developer or game developer (more robotics, embedded systems). I tried vibe coding web apps and games. They were pretty boring. I got frustrated that I couldn't change little things. I remember getting frustrated that my game character kept getting stuck on imaginary walls and kept asking Cursor to fix it…

These posts like the one OP made is why I'm losing my mind. Like, is there truly an agentic way to go 10x or is there some catch? At this point while I'm not thrilled about the idea of just "vibe coding" all the time, I'm fine with facing reality. But I keep having the same experience as you, or rather leaning more on that supercharged Google/SO replacement or just a "can you quickly make this boring func here that d…

I tried claude code to write very simple app for me. Basically Golang mock server which will dump request to console. I'd write this kind of app in an hour. I spent around 1.5 hours with claude code and in the end I had code which I liked, almost the same code I'd write myself. It's not vibe coding, I carefully instructed it to write code in a way I prefer, one small step after another.

So for me, it's pretty obvious that with better training, I'd be able to achieve speed ups with the same result in the end. Not 10x, but 2x is possible. The very first attempt to use AI ended up with almost the same time I'd write the same code, and I have a lot to improve.

That said, I have huge problem with this approach. It's not fun to work like that. I started to program 25 years ago, because it was fun for me. It still fun for me today. I love writing all these loops and ifs. I can accept minimal automation like static autocomplete, but that's about it.

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#574

Post by csomar »

r_lee wrote: post #507
tangotaylor wrote: post #498

> Engineers need to really lean in to the change in my opinion. I tried leaning in. I really tried. I'm not a web developer or game developer (more robotics, embedded systems). I tried vibe coding web apps and games. They were pretty boring. I got frustrated that I couldn't change little things. I remember getting frustrated that my game character kept getting stuck on imaginary walls and kept asking Cursor to fix it…

These posts like the one OP made is why I'm losing my mind. Like, is there truly an agentic way to go 10x or is there some catch? At this point while I'm not thrilled about the idea of just "vibe coding" all the time, I'm fine with facing reality. But I keep having the same experience as you, or rather leaning more on that supercharged Google/SO replacement or just a "can you quickly make this boring func here that d…

I have been building a game (preview here: https://qpingpong.codeinput.com) as a practice to "vibe-coding". There is only one rule: I am not allowed to write a single line of code. But can prompt as much as I want.

So far I am hitting a "hard-block" on getting the AI to make changes once you have a large code base. One "unblocker" was to restructure all the elements as their own components. This makes it easier for the LLM (and you?) to reason about each component (React) in isolation.

Still, even as this "small/simple game" stage, it is not only hard for the LLM to get any change done but very easy for it to break things. The only way I can see my around it, is to structure very through tests (including E2E tests) so that any change by the LLM has to be thoroughly tested for regression.

I've been working on this for a month or so. I could have coded it faster by hand except for the design part.

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#575

Post by WesleyJohnson »

jf22 wrote: post #558
Volundr wrote: post #550

FTA > I've had Claude Code write an entire unit/integration test suite in a few hours (300+ tests) for a fairly complex internal tool. This would take me, or many developers I know and respect, days to write by hand. I have no problem believing that Claude generated 300 passing tests. I have a very hard time believing those tests were all well thought out, consise, actually testing the desired behavior while communic…

> you've accepted a big drop in quality. Right, but you do it in a 10th of the time.

So you're openly saying you're fine with quantity over quality.... in software engineering? That's fine for a MVP, maybe, but nothing beyond on that IMHO unless they're throw away scripts.

"Houston, we have a problem."

"Yeah, but we did it in a 10th of the time"

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#576

Post by alemanek »

tangotaylor wrote: post #498

> Engineers need to really lean in to the change in my opinion. I tried leaning in. I really tried. I'm not a web developer or game developer (more robotics, embedded systems). I tried vibe coding web apps and games. They were pretty boring. I got frustrated that I couldn't change little things. I remember getting frustrated that my game character kept getting stuck on imaginary walls and kept asking Cursor to fix it…

I don’t vibe code yet but it has sped me up a lot when working with large frameworks that have a lot of magic behind the scenes (Spring Boot). I am doing a very large refactor, major version spring boot upgrade, at the moment.

When given focused questions for parts of the code it it will give me 2-4 different approaches extending/implementing different bean overrides. I go through a cycle of back and forth having it give me sample implementations. I often ask what is considered the more modern or desirable approach. Things like give me a pros and cons list of the different approaches. The one I like the best I then go look up the specific docs to fact check a bit.

For this type of work it easily is a 2-3x. Spring specifically is really tough to search for due to its long history and large changes between major versions. More times than not it lands me on the most modern approach for my Spring Boot version and while the code it produces is not bad it isn’t great either. So, I rewrite it.

Also it does a pretty good job of writing integration tests. I have it give me the boilerplate for the test and then I can modify it for all my different scenarios. Then I run those against the unmodified and refactored code as validation suite that the refactor didn’t introduce issues.

When I am working in GoLang I don’t get this level of speed up but I also don’t need to look up as much. The number of ways to do things is far lower and there is no real magic behind the scenes. This might be one reason experiences may differ so radically.

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#577

Post by stocksinsmocks »

mrwrong wrote: post #521
adriand wrote: post #515

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Like, is there truly an agentic way to go 10x or is there some catch? Yes. I think it’s practice. I know this sounds ridiculous, but I feel like I have reached a kind of mind meld state with my AI tooling, specifically Claude Code. I am not really consciously aware of having learned anything related to these processes, but I have been all in on this since ChatGPT, and I honestly think my brain has been rewired in a…

> Yes, I know this sounds ridiculous and over-the-top. in that case you should come with more data. tell us how you measured your productivity improvement. all you've said here is that it makes you feel good

Nobody had a robust, empirical metric of programmer productivity. Nobody. Ticket count, function points, LoC, and others tell you nothing about the fitness of the product. It’s all feels.

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#578

Post by dghlsakjg »

phantasmish wrote: post #261
dghlsakjg wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Something weird happened to software after the 90s or so. Counterpoint: What might have happened is that we expect software to do a lot more than we did in the 90s, and we really don't expect our software features to be static after purchase. I agree that we sometimes make things incredibly complex for no purpose in SE, but also think that we do a rose-colored thing where we forget how shitty things were in the 199…

> Counterpoint: What might have happened is that we expect software to do a lot more than we did in the 90s, and we really don't expect our software features to be static after purchase. Outside the specific case of Apple's "magical" cross-device interoperability, I can't think of many areas where this is true. When I step outside the Apple ecosystem, stuff feels pretty much the same as it did in 2005 or so, except i…

This is exactly what I mean with the rose coloured glasses.

Categorically, I cannot think of a single current software product that existed then, that I would rather be using. 90s browsers sucked, famously. 90s Photoshop is barely useable compared to modern Photoshop. Text editors and word processors are so much better (when was the last time you heard of someone losing all of their work? Now we don't even bother with frequent saving and a second floppy for safety). I can remember buying software n the 1990s and it just didn't install or work, at all, despite meeting all of the minimum specs.

Seriously, go use a computer and software from the 1990s or 2000s, you are forgetting. I'm also not convinced on your assertion that software delivery has slowed down. I get weekly updates on most of my programs. Most software in the 1990s was lucky to get yearly updates...

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#579

Post by beepbooptheory »

adriand wrote: post #551
beepbooptheory wrote: post #546

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My sympathies go out to the friend's coworkers. They are probably wading through a bunch of stuff right now, but given the context you have given us, its probably not "scrum meetings".. I don't even care about the llm, I just want the confidence you have to assess that any given thing will take N weeks. You say 1-2 weeks.. thats like a big range! Something that "would" take 1 week takes ~2 hours, something that "woul…

> They are probably wading through a bunch of stuff right now, but given the context you have given us, its probably not "scrum meetings".. This made me laugh. Fair enough. ;) In terms of the time estimations: if your point is that I don't have hard data to back up my assertions, you're absolutely correct. I was always terrible at estimating how long something would take. I'm still terrible at it. But I agree with th…

But then does this not give you pause, that it "feels religious"? Is there not some morsel of critical/rational interrogation on this? Aren't you worried about becoming perhaps too fundamentalist in your belief?

To extend the analogy: why charge clients for your labor anymore, which Claude can supposedly do in a fraction of the time? Why not just ask if they have heard the good word, so to speak?

Re: Has the cost of building software dropped 90%?

#580

Post by Lich »

r_lee wrote: post #507
tangotaylor wrote: post #498

> Engineers need to really lean in to the change in my opinion. I tried leaning in. I really tried. I'm not a web developer or game developer (more robotics, embedded systems). I tried vibe coding web apps and games. They were pretty boring. I got frustrated that I couldn't change little things. I remember getting frustrated that my game character kept getting stuck on imaginary walls and kept asking Cursor to fix it…

These posts like the one OP made is why I'm losing my mind. Like, is there truly an agentic way to go 10x or is there some catch? At this point while I'm not thrilled about the idea of just "vibe coding" all the time, I'm fine with facing reality. But I keep having the same experience as you, or rather leaning more on that supercharged Google/SO replacement or just a "can you quickly make this boring func here that d…

Feeling the same. I’m guessing the folks getting good results are literally writing extremely detailed pseudocode by hand?! Like:

Write a class Person who has members (int) age, (string) first name, (string) last name…

But if you can write that detailed…don’t you know the code you want to write and how you should write it? Writing plain pseudo code feels more verbose.

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