U.S. pauses all military aid to Ukraine • Hacker News Board

Re: U.S. pauses all military aid to Ukraine

#571

Post by nanotuber » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 7:03 PM UTC

Comments are disappointing for hacker news standard.

This pause was predictable (I predicted it in Nov 2024). It's negotiation leverage to steer toward an immediate resolution of the war.

An immediate resolution of the war cuts losses: Ukraine loses territory, but keeps its sovereignty.

The challenge is that there aren't many other viable paths. An indefinite forever war, with high risk of a Ukraine state collapse, is a most likely alternative. A direct confrontation between NATO and Russia is another, much less likely alternative. The idea that Russia's economy will collapse is highly unlikely.

The Trump Administration will resume military aid after Ukraine is forced to ceasefire talks. Ukraine will not likely (nor with EU) recognize loss territory. However Russia is likely to hold it de facto.

Although I doubt any peace negotiated will last decades. The reasons for the war are deep.

Re: U.S. pauses all military aid to Ukraine

#572

Post by preisschild » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 7:04 PM UTC

amai wrote: post #145

When will the US start to go all in an deliver military aid to Russia? Like North Korea, Iran and China...

He also personally threatened Zelenskyy, so maybe they will help Russia in the form of intelligence on Zelenskyy's position when he is visiting troops near the front...

Re: U.S. pauses all military aid to Ukraine

#573

Post by ZeroTalent » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 7:04 PM UTC

jwilk wrote: post #491

sterlind wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Withdrawing" to 1990 borders? You mean expelling the states that joined after 1990? I'm not sure that would go over well with the Baltics, Romania, Sweden and Finland. Withdrawal from NATO is voluntary and cannot be compelled.

You forgot Poland. :-P

They will never let Poland go because it's a buffer for Germany.

Re: U.S. pauses all military aid to Ukraine

#574

Post by tempodox » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 7:06 PM UTC

arunabha wrote: post #19

It would be one thing if there was a clear policy and adherence to it. In that case, you could discuss and reason in good faith. However there is no such indication that this decision is based on a considered policy. Trump's supporters would say that this is a result of not wanting the US being involved in foreign conflicts. That is a laudable goal, however that is not what is happening here. From the article > On Fr…

> if there was a clear policy

Nope, it's pure chaos, but that's where Trump thrives the most. It's the perfect diversion, nobody knows what he'll destroy next.

Re: U.S. pauses all military aid to Ukraine

#575

Post by spbaar » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 7:06 PM UTC

sterlind wrote: post #214

throwaway48476 wrote: post #107

Ukraine is just the beginning. The peace deal being negotiated includes NATO withdrawing to 1990 borders.

"Withdrawing" to 1990 borders? You mean expelling the states that joined after 1990? I'm not sure that would go over well with the Baltics, Romania, Sweden and Finland. Withdrawal from NATO is voluntary and cannot be compelled.

It will be a withdrawal of US troops and bases with a wink wink. And nothing but impeachment can compel the president to actually respond to an article V call.

Re: U.S. pauses all military aid to Ukraine

#576

Post by edmundsauto » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 7:07 PM UTC

nanotuber wrote: post #571

Comments are disappointing for hacker news standard. This pause was predictable (I predicted it in Nov 2024). It's negotiation leverage to steer toward an immediate resolution of the war. An immediate resolution of the war cuts losses: Ukraine loses territory, but keeps its sovereignty. The challenge is that there aren't many other viable paths. An indefinite forever war, with high risk of a Ukraine state collapse, i…

What are the deeper reasons for the war? All I hear from talking heads is this is aggression from Russia to grab resources and potentially continue to expand their territories through conquest.

Re: U.S. pauses all military aid to Ukraine

#577

Post by _DeadFred_ » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 7:07 PM UTC

nanotuber wrote: post #571

Comments are disappointing for hacker news standard. This pause was predictable (I predicted it in Nov 2024). It's negotiation leverage to steer toward an immediate resolution of the war. An immediate resolution of the war cuts losses: Ukraine loses territory, but keeps its sovereignty. The challenge is that there aren't many other viable paths. An indefinite forever war, with high risk of a Ukraine state collapse, i…

Funny Trumps advisor stated one of the options was BOOSTING support for Ukraine to the point Russia was forced to the table. Funny how that option which would be much more aligned with American's past actions, commitments, policy stance, and allies wasn't chosen but this 'predictable' one was, especially by a President that likes to claim he takes action via strength (but chooses this weakening of his sides negotiating position).

Re: U.S. pauses all military aid to Ukraine

#578

Post by prewett » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 7:08 PM UTC

While I find the Russian invasion of Ukraine appalling, as a counterpoint to all the "Trump is destroying the US' reputation" mono-point that I've read so far (although I agree with that, too): John Maersheimer [1] gave a great explanation and prediction (~10 years prior) of why the whole thing happened. The US saw Russian weakness, decided to expand NATO to Ukraine, and the Russians said "no way will we let NATO be on our border, we'll destroy Ukraine first". We ignored them because they were weak, and they did what they said they would do. So I'm a little torn, because the situation is unwinnable without a major commitment, which nobody wants to do, and is not even in our interests, since we have a peer-competitor conflict shaping up with China. But our hubris caused the whole situation.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4

Re: U.S. pauses all military aid to Ukraine

#579

Post by yubblegum » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 7:11 PM UTC

jopsen wrote: post #544

programmarchy wrote: post #472

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One explanation would be an agreement with Putin softening support for Iran in exchange for US softening support for Ukraine.

Lol, Russia has long sold Iran whatever it wants in exchange for drones.

"lol" is not evidence. There is no evidence IRI is getting anything from RF.

Khamenei studied as a student in USSR prior to the revolution. He is likely a Russian asset. Nothing else can explain the decisions of that "ayatollah". The other day an Isreali news site reported Iran is not on the list of invitees to the May 9 goose stepping show in Moscow. (Israel is invited). IRI got sanctioned for giving drones to RF and now Russia will get off the list while IRI sanctions remain. Russia supports UAE regarding their bs claims on 3 strategic micro-islands in the Persian Gulf. The fabled S-400 have never ever been offered to IRI, and IRI previously had to sue (yes) Russia to finally get the S-300s that they had long ago paid for, which then promptly got bombed by Israel. The list goes on and on ..

"Back to school now" for Ali Khamenei - I bet you didn't know this. In fact curious as to where you even get actual news about IRI if you don't speak Persian ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bN_oEJEp9Ro [1:38 ..]

Re: U.S. pauses all military aid to Ukraine

#580

Post by genter » Tue, Mar 04, 2025, 7:12 PM UTC

prewett wrote: post #578

While I find the Russian invasion of Ukraine appalling, as a counterpoint to all the "Trump is destroying the US' reputation" mono-point that I've read so far (although I agree with that, too): John Maersheimer [1] gave a great explanation and prediction (~10 years prior) of why the whole thing happened. The US saw Russian weakness, decided to expand NATO to Ukraine, and the Russians said "no way will we let NATO be…

Ukraine is an independent country, it was their choice to join NATO.