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How the U.K. broke its own economy

theatlantic.com

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Re: How the U.K. broke its own economy

#571

Post by pjbster »

The UK is drowning in debt. The Office for National Statistics publishes several datasets charting the sorry story. Here's a good one:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxe...

You can see two upticks in debt: first was the steady rise after the 2008 crisis (which austerity clearly failed to stem) and the second around 2020 which may be pure Covid or may be also due to a bit of Brexit.

When the UK government talks about "growth", it really means "growth in tax revenues". This means they want you and me to spend more because transactions are the drivers of revenue.

Inflation is generally painful for the public but very useful for a government up to its ears in debt because debt payments do not rise with inflation but revenues do.

And public services are highly toxic to an economy which requires 4-5% growth just to meet its debt payments. Why provide services for free when you can collect VAT receipts for basic essentials like clean water, energy, and medication? Why spend millions on regulatory oversight when the inevitable health issues downstream will result in more private spending and GDP growth?

Re: How the U.K. broke its own economy

#572

Post by djd20 »

blitzar wrote: post #495
Retric wrote: post #460

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Coal is dead in the UK, from 30% in 2014 to 0.5% in 2024. They went a full month with zero coal electricity generation back in 2020 and 2025 will be entirely coal free. Even natural gas is in decline.

Some people would build a coal power plant in their back yard to own the libs and fight the scurge of rooftop solar pannels destroying the country.

BBQ!!!

Re: How the U.K. broke its own economy

#573

Post by geye1234 »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #515
rickdeckard wrote: post #480

"These problems are obvious to many British politicians. Leaders in the Conservative and Labour Parties often comment on expensive energy and scarce housing. But their goals haven’t been translated into priorities and policies that lead to growth." I can't find this mentioned anywhere in the article, but the current imbalance of supply and demand and the resulting high prices is quite beneficial for parts of the real…

In the year ending June 2024 the net migration into the UK was 728,000. That is the root cause. The government (and this hasn't started with the current government) has a policy of high immigration then makes noise about the need of doing more to solve the "housing crisis"...

You are correct. Immigration exploded under Blair, and exploded again (from its previous high) under Johnson. That is the root cause of the housing crisis.

Look at how many people in their 20s were able to buy homes in the 1990s, then look at immigration levels in that decade.

You and the other person who pointed this out got downvoted. As you say, it's forbidden to bring this up. But it's true. Immigration has benefited the very wealthy and upper-middle classes while screwing the middle- and working-classes.

Re: How the U.K. broke its own economy

#574

Post by optimalsolver »

gadders wrote: post #554
optimalsolver wrote: post #533

Earlier quoted context omitted.

UK's birth rate is 1.44. Someone is going to have to pay for your upkeep in old age. Most political problems of today stem from the fact that politicians are unwilling to explain this basic fact to their none-too-bright constituents. Reality is reality. This is why the fascist-lite Italian PM actually increased immigration from Africa after assuming office and taking one look at the numbers.

Someone is going to have to, but currently as much as immigration is raising the UK population, GDP per person is declining.

Declined relative to its peak in the 2010s. It's climbing again. Ironically the decline set in after Brexit.

It's also way higher than it ever was back when Britain was monoracial.

Re: How the U.K. broke its own economy

#575

Post by hermitcrab »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #559
close04 wrote: post #556

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The are a few more things in the equation. Median age in the UK is ~40 while most immigration is from countries with medians in their 20s. Those families are more likely to have more children especially if they reach a stable and comfortable living situation. So it can be a Ponzi scheme but it can also be an investment.

It is a Ponzi scheme. The Ponzi scheme is that population has to grow forever, which is not sutainable and not possible, and coming to an end globally. So high immigration now is just kicking the ball down the road while destroying your local culture and people in the process.

"local culture and people" are still very much still alive in the South West of England, where I live.

Re: How the U.K. broke its own economy

#576

Post by Jtsummers »

jordanwallwork wrote: post #549
robertlagrant wrote: post #526

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was referring to the "not that expensive".

Maybe I misread it then. I interpreted it as "not low for the average person, but not that expensive _for someone with greater than average wealth_"

Yes, that's how I intended it.

Re: How the U.K. broke its own economy

#577

Post by nickdothutton »

graemep wrote: post #510
rickdeckard wrote: post #480

"These problems are obvious to many British politicians. Leaders in the Conservative and Labour Parties often comment on expensive energy and scarce housing. But their goals haven’t been translated into priorities and policies that lead to growth." I can't find this mentioned anywhere in the article, but the current imbalance of supply and demand and the resulting high prices is quite beneficial for parts of the real…

This is absolutely key. The lobbies are very rich (because they own lots of land) and therefore very influential.

About 70% of the land in the UK will never be built on for various reasons. This leaves 30%. That 30% contains all the towns, cities, suburbs, and various industrial estates, ports, airports and so on. The actual amount of land vaguely available for projects of any sort is rather small, and those projects face heavy headwinds in terms of planning permissions, NIMBYs, and other interests expressed often by people living nowhere near the land in question.

Re: How the U.K. broke its own economy

#578

Post by [deleted] »

noja wrote: post #568
rickdeckard wrote: post #480

"These problems are obvious to many British politicians. Leaders in the Conservative and Labour Parties often comment on expensive energy and scarce housing. But their goals haven’t been translated into priorities and policies that lead to growth." I can't find this mentioned anywhere in the article, but the current imbalance of supply and demand and the resulting high prices is quite beneficial for parts of the real…

Why is the answer always more real estate, and not private ownership of housing? If you don’t live in it you can’t have it.

[deleted]

Re: How the U.K. broke its own economy

#579

Post by nickdothutton »

optimalsolver wrote: post #574
gadders wrote: post #554

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone is going to have to, but currently as much as immigration is raising the UK population, GDP per person is declining.

Declined relative to its peak in the 2010s. It's climbing again. Ironically the decline set in after Brexit. It's also way higher than it ever was back when Britain was monoracial.

GDP per capita growth [1] has been more or less flat since 2008. The time of the GFC. I think people are starting to forget what productivity growth even feels like it has been so long. Subsequent governments set immigration to infinity to make GDP go up, but this has further exposed the fact that per-capita it is flat.

[1] https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/gbr/uni...

Re: How the U.K. broke its own economy

#580

Post by mc32 »

immibis wrote: post #564
mc32 wrote: post #537

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A big part of the problem is the UK used to let in about 100 thou immigrants yearly, that figure is now over a million per year. That means putting up a new house every few minutes. Unless you let Lagos or Caracas-style slums flourish, that’s not going to happen.

Is it better to deliver low-quality housing or none at all? The guy with no housing would be better served even with a large cardboard box, but the police would come and take it away from him if he tried. Banning the symptoms of the problem doesn't solve the problem.

The problem is high pop growth. If they regulated the growth to a manageable level, the problem would be manageable. As it is they are importing other countries' housing problems. We saw that in the Us in the 1920s where we had slums and boarding houses. At least in the US we have land. Places like the UK and Japan have limited land. Canada, Brazil, Argentine, Libya have lots of land, the UK does not.
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