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Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

finance.yahoo.com

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Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#571

Post by starspangled »

trhway wrote: post #558
jcgrillo wrote: post #522

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> AI doesn't seem to be one of those things where society as a whole will say, "we have enough of that; we don't need any more". Really? Has anyone made a useful, commercially successful product with it yet?

>Really? Has anyone made a useful, commercially successful product with it yet? Aren't millions or even tens of millions students using ChatGPT for example? To me that sounds like a commercial success (and looks comparable with the usage of Google Search - a money printing machine for more almost 30 years now - in the first years) And enterprise-wise - heard recently a VP complaining about entering expenses. As we do…

> Aren't millions or even tens of millions students using ChatGPT for example? To me that sounds like a commercial success

I read somewhere that OpenAI brought in $3.7 billion in 2024, and made a loss of $6 billion. So... no I don't think that is an example. They want to make a commercially successful product, but ChatGPT doesn't seem to be there yet.

> And enterprise-wise - heard recently a VP complaining about entering expenses. As we don't have secretaries anymore in the civilized world, that means "Agents AI" is going to have a blast.

We don't have secretaries because the word became unfashionable. They are called PAs or executive assistants or something like that now. They're still there, but if anything the need for them has probably been reduced with (non-AI) computers (calendars, contacts, emails, electronic documents, etc.) so I'm not sure that there is some enormous unmet demand for them.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#572

Post by trhway »

Barrin92 wrote: post #566
trhway wrote: post #558

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Really? Has anyone made a useful, commercially successful product with it yet? Aren't millions or even tens of millions students using ChatGPT for example? To me that sounds like a commercial success (and looks comparable with the usage of Google Search - a money printing machine for more almost 30 years now - in the first years) And enterprise-wise - heard recently a VP complaining about entering expenses. As we do…

>To me that sounds like a commercial success It isn't because it's not making them any money. Having users doesn't mean you have a business. If you sell two dollars for one dollar having more users is not a blessing financially. Of course you could slap ads on it, like Google, but unlike Google openAI has no moat and there's already ten competitors. Competition eliminates profit and AI is being commoditized faster th…

>unlike Google openAI has no moat

what was Google moat?

>and there's already ten potential competitors. Competition eliminates profit and AI is being commoditized faster than pretty much anything else.

we're discussing NVDA. Where are its competitors? ChatGPT having 10 competitors only makes things better for NVDA.

>Competition eliminates profit

Competition weeds out bad/ineffective performers which is great. History of our industry is littered with competition taking out bad performers, and our industry is only better for that. Fast commoditization of AI is just great and fits the best patterns like say PC-revolution (and like it i think the AI-revolution wouldn't be just one app/user-case, it will be a tectonic shift instead).

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#573

Post by JumpCrisscross »

addicted wrote: post #561
ozten wrote: post #431

NVIDIA sells shovels to the gold rush. One miner (Liang Wenfeng), who has previously purchased at least 10,000 A100 shovels... has a "side project" where they figured out how to dig really well with a shovel and shared their secrets. The gold rush, wether real or a bubble is still there! NVIDA will still sell every shovel they can manufacture, as soon as it is available in inventory. Fortune 100 companies will still…

What you are missing is that it turns out the gold isn’t actually gold. It’s bronze. So earliest, the shovelers were willing to spend thousands of dollars for a single shovel because they were expecting to get much more valuable gold out the other end. But now that it’s only bronze, they can’t spend that much money on their tools anymore to make their venture profitable. A lot of shovelers are gonna drop out of the r…

> it turns out the gold isn’t actually gold. It’s bronze.

The gold is still gold. We just thought it was 10,000 feet down, which requires lots of shovels, when it was actually just under the surface.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#574

Post by h0l0cube »

deeviant wrote: post #569
addicted wrote: post #561

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you are missing is that it turns out the gold isn’t actually gold. It’s bronze. So earliest, the shovelers were willing to spend thousands of dollars for a single shovel because they were expecting to get much more valuable gold out the other end. But now that it’s only bronze, they can’t spend that much money on their tools anymore to make their venture profitable. A lot of shovelers are gonna drop out of the r…

Wait, so AI might become 25x cheaper to train and run, and your thesis is... no one will make money on AI now?!?!

Perhaps they mean there's less wealth to be extracted from the closed-source training side of the equation, which requires huge capital investment, and promises even bigger returns by gatekeeping the technology.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#576

Post by kibibu »

magic_hamster wrote: post #339
h1h1hh1h1h1 wrote: post #334

So the Chinese graciously gift a paper and model which describes methods that radically increase the efficiency of hardware which will allow US AI firms to create much better models due to having significantly more AI hardware and people are bearish on US AI now?

I think the idea that SOTA models can run on limited hardware makes people think that Nvidia sales will take a hit. But if you think about it for two more seconds you realize that if SOTA was trained on mid level hardware, top of the line hardware could still put you ahead, and DeepSeek is also open source so it won't take long to see what this architecture could do on high end cards.

> DeepSeek is also open source so it won't take long to see what this architecture could do on high end cards

As far as I can see, the training code isn't open source. It's open weights.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#577

Post by wisty »

elihu wrote: post #450
ozten wrote: post #431

NVIDIA sells shovels to the gold rush. One miner (Liang Wenfeng), who has previously purchased at least 10,000 A100 shovels... has a "side project" where they figured out how to dig really well with a shovel and shared their secrets. The gold rush, wether real or a bubble is still there! NVIDA will still sell every shovel they can manufacture, as soon as it is available in inventory. Fortune 100 companies will still…

Jevon's paradox would imply that there's good reason to think that demand for shovels will increase. AI doesn't seem to be one of those things where society as a whole will say, "we have enough of that; we don't need any more". (Many individual people are already saying that, but they aren't the people buying the GPUs for this in the first place. Steam engines weren't universally popular either when they were introdu…

Yes, a global market of 5 big LLM (ChatGTP, Llama, Claude, Mistral, Qwen ... any other big ones?) is not exactly good for Nvidia.

If every well funded start-up can have a shot, then they buy more GPUs and the big players will need to buy even more to stay noticeably ahead.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#578

Post by TeaBrain »

culi wrote: post #445
skizm wrote: post #337

I like the chart Bloomberg has of the top 10 largest single day stock drops in history. 8 out of the 10 are NVDA (Meta and Amazon are the other two).

Why mention it if you're not gonna link it?

The chart is within the below linked article. The below link I've provided is a gift link, so you should be able to access the article through it.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-01-27/deepse...

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#579

Post by nickthegreek »

ipv6ipv4 wrote: post #514
KiwiJohnno wrote: post #399

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not quite, I believe this sell off was caused by DeepSeek showing with their new model that the hardware demands of AI are not necessarily as high as everyone has assumed (as required by competing models). I've tried their 7b model, running locally on a 6gb laptop GPU. Its not fast, but the results I've had have rivaled GPT4. Its impressive.

To me this rings a lot like “640KB ought to be enough for anybody” Similarly, as fast as processors have gotten, people still complain their applications are slow. Because they do so much more. Generally applicable ML is still in its infancy, and usage is exploding. All those newfound spare cycles will get soaked up fairly quickly.

It’s made a NVIDIA Digits even more attractive to me now.

Re: Nvidia’s $589B DeepSeek rout

#580

Post by gradys »

yalogin wrote: post #565

Nvidia has gotten lucky repeatedly. The GPUs were great for PC gaming and they were the top dog. The crypto boom was such an unexpected win for them partly because Intel killed off their competition by acquiring it. Then the AI boom is also a direct result of Intel killing off their competition but the acquisition is too far removed to credit it to that event. Unlike the crypto boom though, two factors make me think…

Is it luck, or is scaling arithmetic genuinely a useful capability to offer the world?
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