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Is the world becoming uninsurable?

charleshughsmith.substack.com

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Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#571

American, living in area prone to natural disasters: "Is the WHOLE WORLD becoming uninsurable?" The answer is obviously "no" since there are other parts of the world that don't live on a hurricane highway nor build houses made from firewood in an area prone to wildfires.

Honest question. Why when people describe wood framed homes do they always phrase it like houses made from "firewood", "sticks", "twigs" etc? It at least for me always detracts from the argument at hand. You could just as easily build a wood framed home with an exterior shell that is fire resistant using modern materials or brick.

Especially when even in wood framed houses your walls are still stone specifically for the fire resistant properties.

If you wanted to make fun of building practices it would probably be the trend of plastic siding.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#572
post #529

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would anyone tear down a 20 year old house? Where I live the houses are 80-100 years old and they’re better built and nicer to live in than most newer homes.

You could Google it and find out.

I could but I won’t… do you think I asked that question because I urgently need accurate data on Japanese housing? Why does anyone join forums, or discuss things with friends in real life when they could just Google things?

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#573

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s insurance? Change the euphemism from government to private insurance to satisfy capitalism gods and keep their giant foot from squishing us… still “on the books” as a co-mingled pool of funds to shift around to solve problems. Aw …sad… other people exist and need resources too. Not just about your first world skin suit playing temp host to a run of the mill electromagnetic field effect.

People choose where they live, and should bear the cost relative to the amount of risk they chose to take. Government funding is not a magical blanket that somehow makes it moral to take from someone who made good decisions and give to another who made poor ones.

I get that we're on a tech forum but the vast, vast majority of people in this country don't have the financial ability to just move wherever they want. I'm not saying that means that Floridians shouldn't worry about this, but this bootstraps narrative is ridiculous. Everyone here makes substantially more money than the average Joe.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#574

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s possible that solve the hurricane problems with proper building regulations and lower the risk of huge wildfires with controlled burning. But the US as always prefers to pretend that there’s nothing to be done when other parts of the world has figured it out. We have cyclones here similar to the hurricanes in the US and usually it just blows over some trees maybe causes a power outage. The absolute worst I have…

It's so interesting to see the people in awe of that "fire hurricane" video in L.A.... We had a way more intense drought than they in my city last year (theirs are not that intense). We also had 50 km/h winds. We also had higher temperatures... And all of those to levels that we never saw before. Also, we have more trees in our cities. We had new "fire hurricane" videos every week (normally, every other year somebody…

It rather blunts your point when 50km/h winds are a far cry from 160km/h winds.

Specifically, I'm now questioning if your drought was actually more intense. Not exactly sure how you measure that one.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#575

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> To be fair we are talking about an area of the country that is prone to seismic activity, it does limit the building materials. Lisbon was destroyed by an earthquake/tsunami/firestorm combo in 1755 that killed tens of thousands. When the city was rebuilt, they came up with the idea of using a wooden frame structure for earthquake resistance and masonry walls for fire resistance. Nowadays, most new buildings seem to…

Comments like the last here irritate me. No, we all learn that wood is the only appropriate building material and the Salesforce tower in San Francisco required a whole forest of trees to construct. The root comment is based on a very dated concept. Of course we can built earthquake resistant megastructures from steel and concrete. A lot of that building technology was created in California. It's either naive or will…

Hy from Brazil... You know, a poor country.

We make single-level houses with a reinforced concrete structure, because it's cheap.

You know what isn't cheap? Wood. Wood is incredibly expensive to put into a shape, even if you are willing to cut forests down to get it.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#576

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s possible that solve the hurricane problems with proper building regulations and lower the risk of huge wildfires with controlled burning. But the US as always prefers to pretend that there’s nothing to be done when other parts of the world has figured it out. We have cyclones here similar to the hurricanes in the US and usually it just blows over some trees maybe causes a power outage. The absolute worst I have…

Where is “here”? Are you sure you aren’t confusing hurricanes and tornados? Hurricanes rarely destroy houses in the US, either.

How are you making this claim? Every time a hurricane hits Florida, there are photos of entire neighborhoods devastated by wind and storm surge. How many people were permanently displaced by Katrine? Etc. Maybe many of the homes weren't technically "destroyed", but each storm brings millions or billions in damage.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#577

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't that overly pessimistic, not optimistic? Surely if plants are absorbing more CO2 than we thought, that's a good thing for climate change? (More CO2 absorbed by plants -> less CO2 staying in the atmosphere -> less warming. No?)

>(More CO2 absorbed by plants -> less CO2 staying in the atmosphere -> less warming. No?) The vast vast vast majority of co2 absorbed by plants remains in the carbon cycle. The share that leaves it is in fact ridiculously small. There's absolutely no reasonable scenario where we wait for plants to deal with the output of the fossil fuels pumped up.

Most emitted CO2 also remains in the carbon cycle.

What matters is accumulation at a particular point in the cycle because CO₂ is added to the atmosphere faster than it is removed. If it is removed faster then it ceases to be a problem.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#578
I think the best solution is to own much less.

People keep wanting to live in huge space that they barely use, then buy a fuckton of appliances they use once or twice a month at the maximum and hoard stuff like there is no tomorrow. Then they cry when they lose everything or that nobody want to insure their pile of crap. Just insure the minimum to live comfortably. It is much lower than what you can think of.

Since I have been moving every 4 to 5 years I have been focusing on never hoarding too much stuff. My appartment can burn, I will be fine and as long as I can find a small roof[1] for me and my family (1 partner 2 teenagers) and we could buy back what we need to live comfortably with less than 10k€ and then rebuild gradually to live in a normally sized[2] appartment/house.

[1] by my standards, which I rate at 20 to 25sq/m per person living in the household.

[2] a bungalow, yurt, caravan or large camper would be enough for a disaster recovery.

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#579

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re ignoring one critical difference between these two scenarios. Humans, and all human related activities, produce heat as a waste product. It’s much easier, and consumes less additional energy, to heat an occupied space, than to cool it. Thanks to the fact that your average human produces 80W of heat just to stay alive. So every human in your cold space is 80W fewer watts of energy you need to produce to heat th…

It is true that heat is easier to generate. Berlin is considered mild while Phoenix is considered very hot. They just happen to have the same temperature deltas. On the whole, the world spends many, many times more energy heating living spaces than cooling them. The coldest cities people live in just have much larger room temperature deltas than the hottest.

[deleted]

Re: Is the world becoming uninsurable?

#580

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honest question. Why when people describe wood framed homes do they always phrase it like houses made from "firewood", "sticks", "twigs" etc? It at least for me always detracts from the argument at hand. You could just as easily build a wood framed home with an exterior shell that is fire resistant using modern materials or brick.

> You could just as easily build a wood framed home with an exterior shell that is fire resistant using modern materials or brick. That is actually how pretty much all new houses in the UK are constructed. They are pre-fabbed timber frames with a brick facade. It's quite common for British people to be snobby about building materials. I wonder how many don't realise their house is timber framed.

> That is actually how pretty much all new houses in the UK are constructed

This claim struck me as unlikely, so I did a quick fact check.

Accroding to the most recent report I could find[1]: "Figures from the National House Building (NHBC) suggest that timber frame market share has developed from 19% in 2015 to 22% in 2021 and that market conditions, as described above, present the opportunity for this to develop to circa 27% by the end of the forecast period (2025)"

This appears to be driven by Scotland where 92% of new builds were timber framed in 2019, while in England (where the majority of new houses are built) it was just 9%.

[1] https://members.structuraltimber.co.uk/assets/library/stamar...

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