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Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

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Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#571

Post by nabla9 »

sk11001 wrote: post #510
nabla9 wrote: post #471

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are no moats in deep learning, everything changes so fast. They have the next iteration of GPT Sutskever helped to finalize. OpenAI lost it's future unless they find new same caliber people.

> They have the next iteration of GPT Sutskever helped to finalize How do you know that they have the next GPT? How do you know what Sutskever contributed? (There was talk that the most valuable contributions came from the less well known researchers not from him)

sha256:e33135417f7f5b8f4a1c98c28cf26330bea4cc6b120765f59f5d518ea0ce80e5

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#572

Post by trashtester »

chx wrote: post #553
nabla9 wrote: post #447

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Top 6 science guys are long gone. Open AI is run by marketing, business, software and productization people. When the next wave of new deep learning innovations sweeps the world, Microsoft eats whats left of them. They make lots of money, but don't have future unless they replace what they lost.

> When the next wave of new deep learning innovations sweeps the world, that won't happen, the next scam will be different it was crypto until FTX collapsed then the usual suspects led by a16z leaned on OpenAI to rush whatever they had on market hence the odd naming of ChatGPT 3.5. When the hype is finally realized to be just mass printing bullshit -- relevant bullshit, yes, which sometimes can be useful but not bill…

Crypto currencies has the potential to grow the world economy by about 1-3%, as banking fees go down. Add other uses of crypto may double or triple that, but that's really speculative.

AI, on the other hand, has a near infinite potential. It's conceivable that it will grow the global economy by 2% OR MORE per MONTH for decades or more.

AI is going to be much more impactful than the internet. Probably more than internal combustion, the steam engine and electricity combined.

The question is about the timescale. It could take 2 years before it really starts to generate profits, or it could take 10 or even more.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#573

Post by I_am_tiberius »

I hope Ilya takes care of himself. I can imagine that what happened during the past year is not helpful for one's mental health. I assume the presented relationship with Sam Altman does not reflect reality and the external press surely also causes a lot of pressure.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#574

Post by EGreg »

cm2187 wrote: post #481
fnordpiglet wrote: post #452

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t feel that OpenAI has a huge moat against say Anthropic. And I don’t know OpenAI needs Microsoft nearly as much as Microsoft needs OpenAI

But is it even clear what is the next big leap after LLM? I have the feeling many tend to extrapolate the progress of AI from the last 2 years to the next 30 years but research doesn't always work like that (though improvements in computing power did).

LLM is all you need

Attention and scale is all you need

Anything else you do will be overtaken by LLM when it builds its internal structures

Well, LLM and MCTS

The rest is old news. Like Cyc

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#575

Post by sheeshkebab »

bsenftner wrote: post #567
cm2187 wrote: post #481

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But is it even clear what is the next big leap after LLM? I have the feeling many tend to extrapolate the progress of AI from the last 2 years to the next 30 years but research doesn't always work like that (though improvements in computing power did).

The majority of the developers may know what LLMs are in an abstract sense, but I meet very few that really realize what these are. These LLMs are an exponential leap in computational capability. The next revolution is going to be when people realize what we have already, because it is extremely clear the majority do not. RAG? Chatbots? Those applications are toys compared to what LLMS can do right now, yet everyone…

> The next revolution is going to be when people realize what we have already

Enlighten us

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#576

Post by drexlspivey »

belter wrote: post #550
DalasNoin wrote: post #414

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There goes the so called superalignment: Ilya Jan Leike William Saunders Leopold Aschenbrenner All gone

So Satya Nadella paid $13 billion to have....Sam Altman :-))

And, you know, a company with $2B of revenue

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#577

Post by SXX »

photochemsyn wrote: post #247
Bjorkbat wrote: post #202

Probably not related, but it's worth pointing out that Daniel Kokotajlo ( https://www.lesswrong.com/users/daniel-kokotajlo ) left last month. But if it were related, then that would presumably be because people within the company (or at least two rather noteworthy people) no longer believe that OpenAI is acting in the best interests of humanity. Which isn't too shocking really given that a decent chunk of us feel the…

Well it might be in the best (long-term) interests of humanity to have autonomous flying killer robots powered by OpenAI secret military contracting work cut the human population in half, in the name of the long-term ecological health of the planet, and to cull those not smart or fast enough to run away, thus improving the breeding stock. That's why I don't trust people who run around claiming to be serving the best…

You don't need any AI for that. Current technology is quite sufficient.

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#579

Post by sheeshkebab »

ralfd wrote: post #480
nabla9 wrote: post #447

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Top 6 science guys are long gone. Open AI is run by marketing, business, software and productization people. When the next wave of new deep learning innovations sweeps the world, Microsoft eats whats left of them. They make lots of money, but don't have future unless they replace what they lost.

How important are top science guys though? OpenAI has a thousand employees and almost unlimited money, and llm are better understood, I would guess continous development will beat singular genius heroes?

Talk to Microsoft

Re: Ilya Sutskever to leave OpenAI

#580

Post by trashtester »

ru552 wrote: post #136
ptero wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Get next major feature to release and you can go as a friend" might have been part of an earlier agreement.

More like they iced him for the last 6 months to ensure he wasn’t taking their lead to a competitor. He probably hasn’t touched anything in that time.

Those were exactly my thoughts, too.
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