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How to Start Google

paulgraham.com

571–580 of 681 posts

Re: How to Start Google

#572

What is the parallel advice for a 40 year old? I guess the programming and tinkering stuff still applies. But university cannot be redone. Sure I can study but I wont have any connection to most young people. I’ll be the old guy. And this assumes I can afford the loss of income. I assume a lot of start ups are started by older people too. I think for older people an advantage is to solve older people problems. Like h…

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Re: How to Start Google

#573

I don't see any mention of being ready to completely pivot from your original, lofty mission ("best search with no ads") to exactly the opposite ("ads are money"). Google was a successful, unsustainable search engine before it was a successful business. Facebook was a successful social network waay before it was a successful business. Reddit was... You can see where I am going with this.

But topic is "how to start your own Google" not "how to run your own Google".

Still pivoting for monetisation is important.

Re: How to Start Google

#575

I have mixed feelings about this, mostly because the stakes on giving people persuasive advice with an enviable track record in hand might be at its highest in a room full of 14/15-year olds. This is exactly the kind of thing that made me dramatically more ambitious and harder working when I started reading pg essays (pushing 20 years ago now), so I have a huge soft spot for the feeling/nostalgia that I got when I ju…

Watching videos on YouTube is in no way comparable to going to a quality university, being around likeminded ambitious young people, and interacting with professors and researchers directly.

That's not the comparison I was making. I said consuming a meticulously curated list of the best university lectures on any topic delivered by an extremely rare breed (unparalleled research professors who are also competent as educators) is a better way to consume university lectures and requires a phone and $15.99/month.

I furthermore said that Grant of 3Blue1Brown fame and others inspired by him (Richard Behial, Sean Carrol, and many others, this matters enough that I'll do the rigorous citation routine if people personified in this instance by you don't regard this as common knowledge) have used the lever of technology to increase the upper-bound on the efficacy of education in a way that dwarfs the technological lever that LLMs represent for being wrong at scale persuasively enough to convince anyone but an expert in a bad mood.

I explicitly acknowledged the dominant term in the kinds of outcomes pg is talking about, which is having and effectively managing relationships with people who either already are or soon will be with high probability powerful.

In 2013 I was shortlisted as a candidate for some of the top jobs at the hottest company in the business and on a polynomially steeper career ascent trajectory than someone who now sits on OpenAI's board: that person diligently managed relationships and had a keen sense for whose star was rising and falling, I produced 10^4 more marginal revenue (very conservatively) but gave the establishment (including too many of my colleagues who chose the other path on geek/climber) the finger and didn't manage so much as my personal life, let alone the establishment. Which is why that person is on OpenAI's board and I'm scratching out a living as a consultant, and even that is only possible because I'm finally learning twenty years too late to be at least thoughtful, reasonably polite most of the time, and well-cited when being skeptical of an establishment.

The most effective way to interact with cutting-edge researchers short of actually getting a PhD at Oxford or something is to work for or consult for public-private partnerships between top academic labs and private-sector spinoffs. Even as a marginalized consultant I've worked directly with people at top research universities who get whispered about as Nobel candidates, these companies are often under-resourced in the beginning and if you're willing and able to represent a bargain, you can work adjacent to some truly stratospheric levels of elite research.

You're not wrong that going to an excellent school that you or your parents can actually afford is among the best advantages one can have early in life, you're exactly right about that.

You're incorrect in demonstrable ways on the rest of the stuff you've bundled into one statement. This is the problem with bundling together tangentially related ideas into one atomic unit.

I've kicked this thing back and forth a few times because even on revision I'm finding it difficult to say "What you Can't Say" [1] with both of: concrete and documented examples and low scope for seeming rude or snarky. I don't intend snark, but pg wrote those essays for a reason: being right is offensive sometimes. So I apologize if I give any offense to you or anyone else, but all this is true and a lot hangs in the balance right now for the industry and civilization as a whole. And I regret that you personally wind up being the person who said the thing that many/most think that needs demolishing, there's absolutely nothing personal in it.

[1] https://paulgraham.com/say.html

Re: How to Start Google

#576

This advice is horrible for 14 year olds - it’s the equivalent of saying hey kids go become a movie star, rock star, sports champion or rapper

really? at the end of the day it just says "study well and have your own projects" which is a great advice in any way?

Re: How to Start Google

#577

It's interesting that this piece mentions "to get really rich" as one of the primary motivators. Especially to high school students. I wonder if that's good advice or if society is better served by motivating students to start companies that make the world better.

Getting rich and making the world better are not incompatible, or even unaligned in general. You get rich by offering a good or service that society desires.

Getting people to pay for something isn't the same thing as making the world a better place. You'd need to figure out all the effects and costs of the service to know if you're doing good or bad. Tobacco companies sell things that a lot of people desire, but the effect on society is surely negative. Same could be true for social media and many other types of services, but we don't know because we're not really trying to figure that out. The only question we ask when we are starting a business is "are people willing to pay for this enough to make a profit?". We don't ask if the effect of that service is actually good for society or the world.

Re: How to Start Google

#578

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Less startup, more starting a business. The older I get the less I want to build a startup and more I want to start a business. Something that takes a little bit of capital, lots of hard work, gets some customers and provides goods or services, without venture capital firms and 100x returns and everything that comes with that, just a standard business. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sI1SLHEC98I

As you get older it becomes harder to start a business, simply because of financial concerns. As a just-graduated poor student I was used to living on practically nothing. By 40 I had a mortgage, kids, wife etc. The penalty-for-failure at that age is substantial. When I stopped getting a salary in my 20s my wife was earning so we just lived on her salary. That lasted a few years until the new business found its niche…

This is true if you require the same amount of income to maintain your lifestyle, but if you've been working in tech for 20 years, you have savings. I'm not in my 40s yet, but it's much more viable for me to take a risk now than it was when I was just starting out because I can afford to fail for a couple years without, you know, becoming homeless.

Re: How to Start Google

#579
post #543

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This optimizes for Paul's outcomes not for the individual outcomes. I don't get your comment. Are you saying PG is trying to deter and throw off teenagers so they don't compete in the space he invested in?

No, they're saying 1000 bets on random foundational technology means PG is more likely to have a startup to invest in that's a winner, then necessarily giving good advice to the individual founder who doesn't have 1000 turns at the wheel.

This does make sense. I think it's also possible that most of the successes PG sees are people doing something interesting to them. So the argument would be more like: among success stories, true interest is more common than trend chasing.

Of course YC funds tons of ChatGPT wrappers so dunno.

Re: How to Start Google

#580

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That depends entirely on your definition of rich. PG's definition of rich is probably 100x what yours is.

My point is that the probability of getting that rich is really low. You need to combine hard work with incredible luck. A very few percentage will get 100x richer than a FAANG engineer. A typical founder, 10 years in, is less rich than he could have been if he had taken a high paid tech job. But anyway, PG is saying the same thing he's been saying for years. He wants people to launch startups, and he wants them to s…

I agree with you, but PG’s definition of rich in the article is people worth $10 billion dollars plus.

I don’t think he’s being malicious. I think he genuinely just doesnt see a $5-10m NW as rich.

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