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I wish GPT4 had never happened

chaudhry.notion.site

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Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#571

Post by Jyaif »

In case you find the article too long, here's a summary by ChatGPT:

The author expresses initial enthusiasm about technological progress, which they believe improves our lives and generates wealth despite its job displacement effects. However, the author becomes concerned about the potential negative impact of language models like GPT4 on jobs. The author has a colleague named Priya, who comes from a poor background in India and works as a biomedical data curator. The author uses GPT4 to automate Priya's work and is concerned that she may lose her job in the future. The author feels anxious about the implications of this technology and is uncertain about their future career prospects in software engineering. The economic impact of LLMs is unknown to the author, but they believe that some individuals will benefit greatly while others will suffer job losses.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#573

Post by benatkin »

EamonnMR wrote: post #500
crop_rotation wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you for penning down your emotional response. HN is mostly in denial of anything ChatGPT (most people haven't used GPT4 and keep pasting results of GPT3.5). The thing is that there is nothing other than denial that people can express. Saying that their jobs will become much less relevant is just too hard for almost anyone to swallow. People in this thread keep talking about productivity improvements, not realis…

UBI is about as likely to happen as OpenAI deleting GPT4 and never training another model, so if we're picking patiently absurd scenarios I pick that one.

I think the B means it will be enough right? I think that part tends to get ignored since the $1000/mo figure in the US was floated and now is no longer enough for anyone here.

$1000/mo in 2016 purchasing power in a city like Dallas seems very unlikely to me, but I think that some meager version of UBI might happen in response to a humanitarian crisis.

I can also see guaranteed jobs rather than guaranteed income.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#574

Post by atomicUpdate »

newaccount74 wrote: post #524
kofejnik wrote: post #473

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Define “fairly”

Everyone gets as much as they need, everyone contributes as much as they can.

Why would anyone contribute more than is required to get what they need, if they’ll never see any benefit beyond that?

I prefer a system where people that work harder get more so they can have what they want, rather than just the bare minimum to survive (which is presumably what is meant by “what they need”).

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#575

Post by passion__desire »

robomartin wrote: post #484
surgical_fire wrote: post #156

Funny thing - I've been using ChatGPT as a programming assistant. My experience with it is that the more knowledgeable I am at the domain, the more useful it is. It often generates code that won't compile or won't run correctly, but that sort of goes in the correct direction, enough that I can spot the blunders and refine my questions. Quite often I even learn a few new things when using it to explore libraries and f…

> My experience with it is that the more knowledgeable I am at the domain, the more useful it is. Exactly right. I made this argument in an unrelated thread: I gave an example of testing ChatGPT by asking it to write CRC calculation code in ARM assembler. The code worked. It wasn’t as good as mine (slower, inefficient), yet, as you said, as a starting point, it would have been fine. “This is today, mid 2023. Give it…

Programming languages, being precise in description and semantics, means it should be possible, for an automated system, to create new programs by unfolding and expanding already created programs to achieve new solutions. These solutions will be then be memoized and become building blocks for complex problems. A system like GPT-4 should be able to do it, sort of like generating your own training data through self-play like AlphaZero does.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#576

Post by nextaccountic »

wouldbecouldbe wrote: post #479
HyperSane wrote: post #450

The fact that so many people fear loss of income as a result of better AI is a real indictment of our economic system. A better system that more fairly distributed economic productivity would make people welcome better AI because they could be confident it would make everyone wealthier instead of just a few people rich enough to be Goa'uld.

I mean I think that's with every system a problem. Not just ours. Wealth distribution has been a challenge since we've moved away from spending our day solely focused on gathering food / farming. Every shock to our current system will take time to adjust.

> I mean I think that's with every system a problem. Not just ours.

This doesn't mean that different economic systems have equivalent or comparable problems. Just like you can have a worse economic system than today's global capitalism, you could, in principle, have better systems.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#577

Post by fabianhjr »

netbioserror wrote: post #86
Aaargh20318 wrote: post #29

The big oversight here is that Priya does not want a job , what Priya wants is an income . The point of life is not working, the point of life is to enjoy it. We should strive to eliminate as many jobs as we possibly can, the less we have to work the better it is. To make this possible we need to find a way to a new system that doesn't directly link labour with income .

What a profoundly naive opinion. Most people find meaning, fulfillment, even contentment in working, especially when the problems are engaging and the solutions produce value. Many people claim their lives would be better if they never had to work, but they are bullshitting themselves with childhood naivete. Not working is a sucking void of boredom, nihilism, hedonism, and despair. I've been through some of that befo…

Removing the need of wage labor is not the same as promoting idleness.

How many people want to experiment and try new ideas but are stopped by economic insecurity? (In arts, crafts, engineering, and science)

How much _very valuable_ non-paid work doesn't get done because no one is paying for that? (Such as maintenance, community building, teaching, etc)

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#578

Post by mschuster91 »

jmull wrote: post #402
mschuster91 wrote: post #337

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 1) Chaudry's article is amazing in its lack of creative thinking. If people like Priya can be ~10 times more productive wielding some AI tools, that means that many companies can potentially produce 10 times as many products/services and make more things that will enrich peoples' lives. Though some people in some companies might be laid off, it doesn't necessarily mean that more people will be laid off than new job…

> Trickle down economics" don't work. Industrialization waves wrecked the lives of many many millions of people over the centuries, while the people owning the factories eventually got richer than aristocracy as they kept the price of the sold goods barely cheap enough to be a bit cheaper than manual production and pocketed the immense difference in production cost. (1) trickle-down economics-style policies aren’t th…

> (1) trickle-down economics-style policies aren’t the only way to harness the (presumed) increased productivity of LLMs like chatgpt.

There is no reason to believe that the rich classes will act differently than at any time before in human history. To the contrary, union busting laws have eroded the standing that the worker class had even a few decades ago.

> (2) I don’t see how you can argue that standards of living have decreased since the start of the industrial revolution and subsequent technological developments.

Yes, on a societal whole standards of living have risen, but a) millions of people have suffered regardless (e.g. it has been shown that those graduating during the recent economic crises face significant income losses over their lifetimes) and b) other metrics (ownership of assets like houses, financial savings) have gone dow hill at the same time.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#579

Post by sethammons »

surgical_fire wrote: post #128
netbioserror wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What a profoundly naive opinion. Most people find meaning, fulfillment, even contentment in working, especially when the problems are engaging and the solutions produce value. Many people claim their lives would be better if they never had to work, but they are bullshitting themselves with childhood naivete. Not working is a sucking void of boredom, nihilism, hedonism, and despair. I've been through some of that befo…

You should come here and find some meaning painting my fence. While you are at it, the toilet in the basement is clogged, there is shit water all over the place. You could find meaning there too.

Ya know, I have helped neighbors with those exact problems. For free. It was nice to be helpful. I would not however do it for fun every day for strangers.

Re: I wish GPT4 had never happened

#580

Post by ihateyouall123 »

surgical_fire wrote: post #128
netbioserror wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What a profoundly naive opinion. Most people find meaning, fulfillment, even contentment in working, especially when the problems are engaging and the solutions produce value. Many people claim their lives would be better if they never had to work, but they are bullshitting themselves with childhood naivete. Not working is a sucking void of boredom, nihilism, hedonism, and despair. I've been through some of that befo…

You should come here and find some meaning painting my fence. While you are at it, the toilet in the basement is clogged, there is shit water all over the place. You could find meaning there too.

It sounds like you simply haven't experienced the full spectrum of humanity. There are plenty of people who find pleasure in shit.
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