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U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

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Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#571
post #478

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of the most technically challenging things about reconnaissance satellites is dealing with the high speed at which the satellite moves over the target. A balloon flies much lower and vastly more slowly. It can loiter over an area, sucking in electronic signals and taking photographs with extremely high fidelity. I don’t think the Chinese meant for this balloon to cross the United States. I believe they were testi…

Did they actually apologize? I thought all they said is that it was a weather balloon. Regardless, I'm very interested in what hardware was actually on this thing. Hopefully the public gets a summary of what USN pulls up during recovery.

“… the uncharacteristic speed and contrition of China’s statement as indications that it was probably a genuine error…”

https://www.economist.com/china/2023/02/03/how-a-balloon-bur...

Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#573

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's one thing to be interested in politics, and a whole different story whether you can make a tiny bit of difference with the knowledge you get from spending time listening to all the politicians out there on a daily basis. Besides, most of the time the system is designed in a way that you have neither a say nor healthy representation of your political views in the elected government.

> the system is designed in a way that you have neither a say nor healthy representation America is the most powerful civilisation in the history of humanity. In almost every election, nonvoters could swing the outcome. On almost every issue, practically nobody reaches out to their representatives. Participation is hard. Many of us have more important matters to tend to. That’s fine. But don’t characterise participat…

I think the relevant quote is something like "people get the government they deserve" or "if you want to know who is to blame you have only to look in the mirror"

Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#574
post #25

I had seen reports that the balloon was the length of 3-4 school busses but it appears that was misreported and just repeated. The PAYLOAD was the length of 3-4 school busses. I haven’t been following this much until today/ vaguely aware as an amusing background story. But, has anyone seen high res photos of the balloon or someone doing back of the envelope math on the size of the balloon portion? I ask simply becaus…

Judging from the videos that pan from the moon to the balloon: the balloon was about 3x smaller in the sky than the moon. Knowing the altitude of the balloon was 68,000 feet, we can fudge the distance from the observer to the balloon as 100,000 feet. Knowing the distance to the moon and the radius of the moon we can use like triangles to estimate that the balloon was ~285 feet across, +/- 20% for estimates. Edit: upd…

This is a clever method and I appreciate that you posted the Wolfram alpha link - always happy when people show their work and I did not realize that you could do things like include (diameter of moon) as variables with it. This is a nit, but if you're busting out an AI enhanced calculator there is no need to make a 40% rounding of 70K to 100k. I got ~200 ft across.

Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#575
post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every major country has their faults, but the US definitely has a larger surface area for these faults as the only superpower left. On the other hand, as the only superpower left, we're fortunate the US exists as a stabilizing factor for world peace, rather than colonizing the rest of the world like every superpower before it.

Lol, yeah, those aren't just faults. Destabilizing the entire middle east isn't just an oopsie you can write off, it's what you call "stabilizing" usually looks like. Your discourse is basically what everyone thinks of their own superpower, as long as they aren't on the receiving end of those "faults".

I'm not sure the Middle East would ever be stable on its own, unless you're saying the US was responsible for most of the conflicts on this list?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_modern_conflicts_in_th...

Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#576

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I ignore the majority of it myself. Maybe I'm a pessimist but there is little I can do to make an impact on geopolitics. I want to spend my energy on the things I can control and little energy on anything else. I'm much happier being completely unaware of whatever may be happening with the world.

> Maybe I'm a pessimist but there is little I can do to make an impact on geopolitics. I think quite the opposite — Geopolitics is impacted all the time by your actions. What you buy, what you say on forums like HN (where potentially tens of thousands read your comment), how you educate your kids, how many kids you have, how you influence co-workers. The reality, is the world is smaller than you think. What’s the phr…

Beyond the local level, it seems like you’re conflating the “amount of influence an individual has” with “the amount of influence individuals can have [if they act at scale]”.

Sorry for the short reply, I don’t mean to be dismissive; I hope that this makes sense.

Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#577
post #25

I had seen reports that the balloon was the length of 3-4 school busses but it appears that was misreported and just repeated. The PAYLOAD was the length of 3-4 school busses. I haven’t been following this much until today/ vaguely aware as an amusing background story. But, has anyone seen high res photos of the balloon or someone doing back of the envelope math on the size of the balloon portion? I ask simply becaus…

Judging from the videos that pan from the moon to the balloon: the balloon was about 3x smaller in the sky than the moon. Knowing the altitude of the balloon was 68,000 feet, we can fudge the distance from the observer to the balloon as 100,000 feet. Knowing the distance to the moon and the radius of the moon we can use like triangles to estimate that the balloon was ~285 feet across, +/- 20% for estimates. Edit: upd…

Size of a football field, got it

Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#578

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They also could have had ground penetrating radar. Note the path of the balloon was over the US missile silos https://geo-matching.com/content/new-approach-to-use-ground-... Outside the atmosphere you would not be able to do it

If that thing had a radar strong enough to see through dirt from 50,000ft, it should have also been causing havoc to all sorts of electrical equipment too.

I know nothing of radar, but could the radar be shaped like routers beam forming? Couldn’t the radar also be switched off over the majority of inconsequential areas?

Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#579
post #338

I have been in "no politics, no news" mode for over a month. I try to do this about once a year. I have yet to tell my wife I do it, but when I am on this limited media consumption she always comments how pleasant I am to be around. I think it is a good thing for all of us to do once in a while, until 80 years ago most news was at best three or four days old, go back 120 years and you're getting only last weeks top t…

Events like this are really destructive to my ability to be critically reflective of my ego. It’ll be months before I feel normal around the populace again.

Not sure I understand: how does this news story impact your opinion of “the populace”? Also what is your personal definition of “the populace”? Is it everyone you don’t know personally?

This seems like a tough mindset to find yourself in, but I want to make sure I understand what you mean.

Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#580
post #478

Sidestepping the geopolitical issues with this for a moment ... What advantage is there to using a high altitude balloon for surveillance? I have to imagine there are some - like longer loiter time over a specific point, maybe better optics because you are still in atmosphere, it's obviously cheaper than launching a satellite - but I don't really know enough about this kind of hardware to say. Or maybe the point wasn…

One of the most technically challenging things about reconnaissance satellites is dealing with the high speed at which the satellite moves over the target. A balloon flies much lower and vastly more slowly. It can loiter over an area, sucking in electronic signals and taking photographs with extremely high fidelity. I don’t think the Chinese meant for this balloon to cross the United States. I believe they were testi…

Wouldn't that be much more convenient to just use those passenger planes?
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