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Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

economist.com

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Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#571

Post by guntars »

kragen wrote: post #506
dumpsterlid wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yah great point, the US culturally seems to really struggle with the idea that the business is just an arbitrary conception, what is important is the workers . We really have a disturbing sense that arbitraries collections of capital and legalese are more important than humans with passions and skills and it honestly scares me.

Yeah, it's amazing the number of people who believe that corporations exist in the same objective sense that puppies do, rather than the social-consensus sense that D&D characters do.

Imo the closest analog to a corporation is a program. It objectively exists like puppies do, but only when it's executed by the hardware, which are the people. Otherwise it's just a stack of documents without any real power to affect the reality.

You can easily guess what the purpose of the program is.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#572

Post by elsonrodriguez »

Isinlor wrote: post #22

China already declared that it will use force in Taiwan if "possibilities for a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted". From Chinese Anti-Secession Law: Article 8: In the event that the "Taiwan independence" secessionist forces should act under any name or by any means to cause the fact of Taiwan's secession from China, or that major incidents entailing Taiwan's secession from China should occur, or t…

The US isn't going to be caught off guard by China. What the west has been doing for Ukraine in the last few months in terms of weapons, the US and other countries have been doing for Taiwan over the last few decades:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_US_arms_sales_to_Taiwa...

The latest sale involves adding 60 Harpoon anti-ship missiles to the pile of hundreds they already have.

China will not have an easy time of invading such a well-armed country, and they also have to weigh the non-zero possibility of foreign intervention. It will be a costly endeavor by any measure.

China's best bet is a cultural/political/economic takeover, which will give other countries time to diversify chip manufacturing, as we are currently doing.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#573

Post by ohazi »

sylware wrote: post #305
Sakos wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, they don't have EUV. They have 7nm which they're doing with DUV, but they're hitting the same issues Intel did with abysmal yields and there's no guarantee that SMIC will be able to solve something Intel was never able to.

... unless they jump onto the EUV train. That said heard that japan may come back as a top-notch silicium country with... nanoimprint?!

They're sanctioned, they can't just "jump"

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#574

Post by digianarchist »

senttoschool wrote: post #3

A few months ago, I posted that here that governments around the world should not interfere with the chip industry just because of the covid-induced shortages. The reason is that supply and demand will naturally sort things out and that any government handout to chip companies to increase capacity will be wasted because chip demand will swing the other way. The chip industry is now swinging the other way.

The Economist made the same point a few months ago.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#575

Post by anigbrowl »

PuppyTailWags wrote: post #314
ansible wrote: post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I disagree. We've already passed the tipping point for tech, and investment will continue to accelerate. This is true for various form of artificial intelligence, and the rest of tech. Businesses in general started to see the appeal around the time that the Google Assistant, Cortana, Alexa and Siri started to become actually useful and desired by the general public. Because of that, there will continue to be a push t…

I disagree current systems can turn a web search that presents results in a pleasing manner. I had a horrible time trying to find a specific musician's work on YouTube just last night. It kept recommending me completely unrelated vids as if I was browsing just to browse. It couldn't seem to comprehend that even though I usually watch cute cat videos today I am searching for music, even when I was exact quoting the au…

I think technology has shifted from giving me what I want to telling me what I want.

Underrated insight

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#576

Post by waste_monk »

bouncycastle wrote: post #50

Related: There is a massive TSMC factory being built in Japan right now. Take a look at the pictures, I've never seen this many cranes at one location: https://www.nhk.jp/static/assets/images/newblogposting/ts/7P... https://cdn-cw-english.cwg.tw/ckeditor/202205/ckeditor-628ae... It looks like a forest of cranes...

Perhaps if the construction site grows large enough they could make a senbazuru.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#577

Post by SkyMarshal »

tuatoru wrote: post #547
xyzzyz wrote: post #522

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you provide weapons to Taiwan if Chinese Navy blockades Taiwan?

Ahead of time.

They'll run out of something necessary eventually - food, fossil fuels, ammo, etc - forcing the US and allies to decide whether to intervene or not.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#578

Post by SkyMarshal »

monocasa wrote: post #427
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Who is threatening Japan with cruise missiles? Certainly not China or Russia. North Korea, perhaps. China. Japan cooperates with AUKUS [1]. If Xi invades Taiwan, it's going to pull in America, Britain, Australia and–in all likelihood–Japan. That said, we're more likely to see a recapitulation of the Ukraine playbook than direct intervention by American and Japanese forces. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AUKUS

Japan has inquired about participating in AUKUS, but doesn't currently.

He might have meant the Quad.

Re: Intel and the $1.5T chip industry meltdown

#580

Post by cromwellian »

kragen wrote: post #294
galangalalgol wrote: post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The games played with currency and private debt that fueled the massive export boom are not sustainable indefinitely. There are already signs it may be tipping, and the world raising interest rates to combat inflation will worsen the situation. Combine that with their exports to the US falling due to sanctions and a new interest in US manufacturing. And as their population and the population of their other trading pa…

I agree with many of these points. The future is unpredictable, whoever is on top today will not be on top forever, and the idea of being governed by the PRC is very unpopular in Taiwan. And nothing you have said supports our more ignorant interlocutor's point that Xi's policies have "killed China's economy". Still, other points I disagree with. PRC's exports to the US are not falling; they fell in 02019 due to sanct…

> Expensive private tutoring companies were a hot startup sector until the government crackdown.

This is almost entirely due to the Gaokao. Also, there's a difference between prizing education as a means to make money, and prizing education as a means to make a well-rounded person. The concept of a 'liberal arts' education in China barely exists, from the standpoint that education isn't about vocational skills to enrich yourself monetarily, but to enrich oneself as a person.

Fundamentally, I don't think an authoritarian state that constricts intellectual, academic, and political freedom, combined with an educational system that acts largely as a vocational gatekeeper, is conducive to the free questioning that is at the heart of innovation.

Western education tends to teach rebellion. Rebellion against your parents, against the government, against the status quo. The way you get a Steve Jobs or an Elon Musk is to have someone, who is told no over and over again, "you can't do this", to say "f*ck it, I'm doing it anyway, no matter how stupid or impossible you say it is."

It's this rebellion that's at the heart of innovation. And I don't think Confucian or CCP values rebellion very much.

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