Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid • Hacker News Board

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#571

Post by mitfahrener » Tue, Feb 16, 2021, 2:33 AM UTC

kasey_junk wrote: post #558

bombcar wrote: post #444

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is amusingly interesting to me. I’d love to know more about your setup and the results make sense (I’ve considered installing a second dishwasher to be able to handle an entire days worth of dishes overnight) but it also seems somehow slightly dystopian. I agree with the note later in the thread that the solution is powerwall like things for demand smoothing / moving.

The screen in my kitchen is a dakboard ( https://dakboard.com/site ) we largely use it as a digital picture frame and calendar but it supports querying/parsing json out of the box. So to get the price on it I have it hit my providers json api https://hourlypricing.comed.com/hp-api/ . For the charts in my office I have a Prometheus/Grafana setup at home for a variety of things and built a bridge to the comed data for…

Very cool

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#572

Post by pfdietz » Tue, Feb 16, 2021, 2:36 AM UTC

fuzzfactor wrote: post #276

namibj wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you manage to freeze natural gas pipelines? It isn't even liquid at the near-surface air low-temperature record (-89.2 C/-128.6 F).

Crude natural gas is usually saturated with water downhole at warm temperatures and high pressures, some of which condenses as it is produced at the surface. At many points in a pipeline further water removal can be essential too. Even when not liquefied like LPG, when passing through a restriction valve or orifice, there is still additional cooling due to the product acting a bit like a refigerant. The water content…

And you get can get clathrates (combinations of methane/ethane/propane and water).

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#573

Post by pfdietz » Tue, Feb 16, 2021, 2:45 AM UTC

bob1029 wrote: post #447

jillesvangurp wrote: post #437

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That price volatility is an interesting thing. It could actually accelerate the transition to renewables in places like Texas. Gas for peaker plants becomes a lot less attractive when the price can jump by 100x when it is most needed. If that becomes a regular thing, people will want other options. And of course such options are readily available in the market now in the form of e.g. solar + battery that you can inst…

Battery storage is wholly inadequate for this current scenario. We need reliable baseload capacity for prolonged demand cycles like this. Texas being frozen over for days on end is not the same as dealing with the duck curve on an intraday basis in the summer. Running your AC on batteries for a few hours in the afternoon is a completely different ballgame than trying to heat your home for 72 hours straight.

The solution may be hydrogen. This helps in two ways: it can be burned in turbines, and it provides large amounts of dispatchable demand (for the electrolyzers) that can be shut down in emergencies.

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#574

Post by pfdietz » Tue, Feb 16, 2021, 2:52 AM UTC

baq wrote: post #396

natch wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Savvy grid operators are deploying large battery installations to meet demand spikes, mitigating some of the issues around that. Also the amount of solar and wind energy installations is only going to increase going forward, so no worries. Still, plenty to do.

in this case texas is net short gigawatts. the largest grid scale battery ever built wouldn't last an hour. you'd have to have 20 to get through the night.

What batteries could do here is allow the grid to operate closer to maximum, without having to hold as much generating capacity in reserve in case some generator goes offline. The batteries could keep the grid going until some load could be shed.

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#575

Post by pfdietz » Tue, Feb 16, 2021, 2:56 AM UTC

bob1029 wrote: post #531

kaibee wrote: post #352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is like, the worst possible case for nuclear energy, because this is a random fluctuation that won't be sustained for more than week. Whereas building a nuclear power plant costs billions of dollars and takes multiple decades to pay for itself.

Indeed - traditional nuclear power plants which cost billions of dollars per reactor unit and are wrapped up in mountains of politics are not the future. I think SpaceX has demonstrated the impact rapid iteration, modularization and standardization can have on billion-dollar+ capex projects. There are SMR technologies that have already passed important phases of regulatory approval. Proposed nuclear technologies, suc…

None of those are the capital cost of a simple cycle gas turbine powerplant (maybe $400/kW).

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#576

Post by perl4ever » Tue, Feb 16, 2021, 5:13 AM UTC

joosters wrote: post #395

mypalmike wrote: post #327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imperfect economic analogy is imperfect. It doesn't mean it's unreasonable, and it doesn't imply the malicious intent you want it to.

There's imperfect analogies, and then there's completely unrelated 'analogies'. It was the OP chose this analogy in particular, it kind of implies that they consider the situations to be similar.

I just read some people in Texas are camping out in their cars to keep warm.

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#577

Post by pomian » Tue, Feb 16, 2021, 5:19 AM UTC

tgtweak wrote: post #448

ubermonkey wrote: post #412

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Greetings from Texas. Yeah, all that is true. You build based on how things usually are, or at least usually WERE when the dwelling was built. I live in Houston -- very close to downtown, so I'm only about 50 miles from the Gulf of Mexico. This makes it VERY FUCKING WEIRD INDEED that my entire yard is covered in snow, and it is 16F outside. This is NOT Houston weather. It's almost unprecedented -- it's certainly neve…

I'll add that up here in the great north - we also use combined air conditioner/heat pumps but in most cases spring for the "low temperature" models with a built in defroster and higher pressure refrigerant - allowing them to heat down to -18°f. This would almost never make sense in a southern climate where it happens once every 20 years. Likewise, investing in any high efficiency/dual-source heating setup would not…

Plastic or rather polyethylene tarps or sheets, even plastic bags, stapled to Windows around frame help a lot to keep house warm. Another very good trick, is to hang blankets in hallways that don't have doors. It keeps the room where the heat is warmer, and really really helps with drafts. That also helps to survive, if no heat anywhere, and to keep one living space warm To keep water in sinks bathrooms kitchens from freezing, keep the cabinet doors open, and if really cold, keep the water trickling, especially in cold water lines. These tricks can save your pipes from freezing, which is real mess and expensive. Source - Canadian.

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#578

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Feb 16, 2021, 5:56 AM UTC

okaram wrote: post #569

tgtweak wrote: post #448

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll add that up here in the great north - we also use combined air conditioner/heat pumps but in most cases spring for the "low temperature" models with a built in defroster and higher pressure refrigerant - allowing them to heat down to -18°f. This would almost never make sense in a southern climate where it happens once every 20 years. Likewise, investing in any high efficiency/dual-source heating setup would not…

Bubble wrap produces very decent insulation for single-pane windows.

[deleted]

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#579

Post by natch » Tue, Feb 16, 2021, 7:46 AM UTC

baq wrote: post #396

natch wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Savvy grid operators are deploying large battery installations to meet demand spikes, mitigating some of the issues around that. Also the amount of solar and wind energy installations is only going to increase going forward, so no worries. Still, plenty to do.

in this case texas is net short gigawatts. the largest grid scale battery ever built wouldn't last an hour. you'd have to have 20 to get through the night.

How many gigawatts we talking? The largest grid scale battery ever built will deliver 1.2GW per hour.

I'd say 20 of those would certainly do the trick, and then some. Might be able to get by with 10 or so.

They would save rate payers a bucket of money as well; the largest grid scale battery ever built that you mention is projected to offer cost savings of $100 million over its 20 year lifespan versus the alternatives; not bad at all.

As far as the up front cost, it's pocket change for a state like Texas, and they could use it in the summer as well.

Re: Ercot nearly at capacity for Texas power grid

#580

Post by ubermonkey » Tue, Feb 16, 2021, 1:59 PM UTC

tgtweak wrote: post #570

ubermonkey wrote: post #555

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anticipating the cold snap, my wife ordered insulating curtains for the big windows on the front of the house, to hang behind the decorative ones. I figured it was more an example of "must do something" than "activity that will actually help," but I was proven wrong IMMEDIATELY. They've made a material difference (no pun intended), and I'm said I said no when she asked if I wanted some for my office.

She's a keeper :)

Absolutely. We've been keeping each other for almost 20 years.