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Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

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Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#571

Post by TulliusCicero »

jorblumesea wrote: post #391
bronco21016 wrote: post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I first heard of this phenomenon the other day from a coworker that lives south of Atlanta, near the major movie/tv production area. People, from what are typically blue areas, are moving in and radically changing the political landscape according to him. He wasn’t necessarily against liberal ideas but his complaint was that they seem to vote for taxes just for the hell of it because every tax proposed is still signi…

But that's not what the data shows. People from blue states are moving to blue cities in red states. Left leaning people are moving to similarly left leaning areas. Austin, Dallas, Houston, Miami, Atlanta, when was the last time these were Republican bastions? Look at the areas experiencing huge population growth. Texas might be red but the populations centers haven't been for years.

This is a good point, but it would be intellectually disingenuous not to acknowledge that they've been drawn by the policy of the red states, specifically by housing policy that's made housing costs more reasonable than the blue states.

Not that I'm a big fan of sprawl, but it's undeniable that blue state housing policy that strictly limits both sprawl AND density has been an utter disaster for cost of living anywhere where the economy is good.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#572

Post by Stupulous »

Gibbon1 wrote: post #554
tjr225 wrote: post #494

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Statistically, people are moving from rural areas and to urban areas. Rural areas tend to be conservative and economically depressed. Urban areas tend to have high paying jobs and be liberal or progressive. Aside from a few state/city couplings(Omaha, NE comes to mind) a US "State" is a poor indicator of differentiated policy or ideology. People in Atlanta or Miami or LA or Seattle have a lot more in common with each…

After the 2016 election while my friends were freaking out and moping I went and drilled down into the fine grained election results. You are absolutely right. The difference is really between 'the city' and exurban. Notable the size of 'the city' doesn't matter. In thinly populated areas the city might only be 15-20,000 people. But they all voted for liberal/progressive/left leaning candidates.

I think there are a lot of issues where the republican/democrat divide is very directly influenced by rural/urban environments.

(please do not assume any of the following takes a stance on these issues. Also don't imagine I know what I'm talking about)

On gun control, rural areas can have more than one gun per person with virtually no impact on an already negligible violent crime rate, while urban areas have fewer guns that are all much more likely to be involved in a homicide. So rural people see the issue as taking away rights for no benefit and urban people see that resistance as tacit support of gun violence and an attack on human life.

On abortion, cities have a lot more opportunity for promiscuity and have more unwanted pregnancies as a result. In the country, abortions are a much rarer concern; eliminating them would have little impact and resistance seems like tacit support of an attack on human life.

On taxation, city wages are higher. This may, citation needed, also influence positions on immigration.

Pollution is a greater concern in the city. Law enforcement corruption is a greater concern in the city. Cost-of-living and therefore necessary minimum wage are higher in the city.

I could go on (I can't, but fun to say so anyway).

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#573

Post by megablast »

bronco21016 wrote: post #428
jorblumesea wrote: post #391

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But that's not what the data shows. People from blue states are moving to blue cities in red states. Left leaning people are moving to similarly left leaning areas. Austin, Dallas, Houston, Miami, Atlanta, when was the last time these were Republican bastions? Look at the areas experiencing huge population growth. Texas might be red but the populations centers haven't been for years.

I think in the particular case of my co-worker the blue is spilling into the traditionally red rural areas. The population centers inevitably must expand to handle the migration.

So blue cities are expanding, as cities have always done?

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#574

Post by oblio »

nodesocket wrote: post #221
jedberg wrote: post #55

Every person I know who's left California did it because of housing costs (except for one, who did it to get away from "the damn liberal government that wants to take my guns"). We have a major housing cost crisis in this state, as well as a big NIMBY problem. There have been good solutions run up through the state house, that either fail to pass or get so watered down they are no longer effective, in large part beca…

Also moved from SF to Nashville, TN. Lot's of factors: - Cost of living - Housing - I am self employed (no state taxes) - Attitude, entitlement, hypocrisy - Petty crime rampant (drug use, break ins, theft, defecation) - Extreme political climate in SF/CA

What does the last point mean, in practice?

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#575

Post by speedplane »

roenxi wrote: post #476
mint2 wrote: post #449

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You seem to have a lot of judging and questionable assumptions in your post.

There is a very pronounced trend of people migrating away from states that are controlled by Democrats for reasons that are potentially ideologically driven policy failures. This raises a a very real and material question for the new host community - do the migrants understand why the situation became so intolerable that they felt they should move? Migrants bring new ideas so a certain amount of discomfort and change…

> There is a very pronounced trend of people migrating away from states that are controlled by Democrats for reasons that are potentially ideologically driven policy failures.

This observation may actually indicate the opposite, it is conservative policies that are failing. To see this, consider two potential reasons why people move away from urbanized progressive areas into more conservative areas:

1. Progressive policy failures (as you suggest)

2. The conservative areas are under-developed, and therefore have a greater potential for growth, which creates incentives to move there.

Under the first hypothesis, liberal policies ruin things. But under the second hypothesis, conservative policies ruin things. There is a pretty simple way to test out which is true: if the first is true, and progressive policies are at fault, then a conservative area would become more conservative as it becomes more popular and more people move there. If the second is true, then conservative areas would become more liberal as it becomes more developed.

Pretty much every originally conservative area that becomes developed later becomes more liberal (hello Texas). It's pretty clear that your hypothesis is false.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#576

Post by sudosteph »

BoorishBears wrote: post #423
sudosteph wrote: post #56

Native North Carolinian checking in. I'm from Charlotte and I can honestly say that I grew up with more friends who had parents from New York than from NC. A lot of middle class people from upstate NY settled in Charlotte due to the economic opportunities and weather. I'd wager that this migration really started about 30 years ago, and we're seeing the numbers increase even further due to network effects. For example…

I know a lot of these conversations are about families and older people than me, so an anecdote from the POV of a 26 year old I just moved from Durham, NC back to New England after a year (Moved to NYC specifically, this is my first time in a truly large city) I can't for the life of me figure out why anyone in my age group (and in tech) would want to move to Durham/Raleigh from NYC, except for raising a family The c…

I'm not a fan of Durham, but I really like downtown Raleigh. The food is good, the people are friendly, and the local music scene is surprisingly vibrant. I've met at least two young people in Raleigh who are originally from NYC, a couple from Philadelphia too who said they don't want to move back.

The things those young people seem to have in common: - Work low-skilled service industry jobs - Have involvement in the music or art scene - Are unhappy with standard of living available to them in "affordable" parts of bigger cities (ie, crime + pollution, not being able to afford a car for trips / gigging).

So that's one example of the type of young person who would prefer to move to Raleigh. I don't know if they're the type who will stay long-term, but there's definitely an appeal to a certain set of people. Highly paid techies who can work anywhere may not get much out of it. Personally, I just enjoy being here because I'm from NC and like the culture and my friends and family here. I might consider a bigger east-coast city in the future - but the west coast in general has completely lost its appeal.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#577

Post by dragonwriter »

roenxi wrote: post #476
mint2 wrote: post #449

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You seem to have a lot of judging and questionable assumptions in your post.

There is a very pronounced trend of people migrating away from states that are controlled by Democrats for reasons that are potentially ideologically driven policy failures. This raises a a very real and material question for the new host community - do the migrants understand why the situation became so intolerable that they felt they should move? Migrants bring new ideas so a certain amount of discomfort and change…

> There is a very pronounced trend of people migrating away from states that are controlled by Democrats for reasons that are potentially ideologically driven policy failures

People who have worked in California until retirement taking advantage of it's strong economy to secure retirement income and then moving elsewhere to further maximize retirement dollars are a big part of the trend; to the extent that's about policy outcomes, it's policy success.

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#578

Post by defen »

malandrew wrote: post #294
formerchamp wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't help when there are insane regulations like dedicating double digit percentage of new units to be "affordable"/subsidized/section 8. Anyone with a full time minimum wage job would not qualify for "affordable" housing, you literally have to not work at all, it's such a scam.

Don't get me started on this. I helped an friend get into below market rate (BMR) housing in SF. She paid approximately $330k with almost no money down for a 2 bedroom, 2 bath condo in the center of Hayes Valley. Today, equivalent market rate units in her building sell for $1.5k to $2m. Basically, there is a supply of homes that are available to you at three points: 70%, 90% and 110% of the median income. How these t…

> She paid approximately $330k with almost no money down for a 2 bedroom, 2 bath condo in the center of Hayes Valley. Today, equivalent market rate units in her building sell for $1.5k to $2m.

How does that work if/when she wants to sell the place? Is there some sort of cap on what she can sell it for?

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#579

Post by cyphar »

kortilla wrote: post #378
atomi wrote: post #298

I wouldn't leave California for a million dollars. To quote a famous Californian, "I'd rather be dead in California than alive in Arizona."

I’m sure there are lots of people in Arizona that would love for you to die there as well. I’m honestly surprised that so many “forward thinking” people can spout off such nationalist bullshit with a straight face.

It's a reference to Arrested Development. There's also no need to take it personally -- not to mention that both Arizona and California are in the same country (thus making it by definition not nationalistic to say you prefer one to the other).

Re: Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

#580

Post by dragonwriter »

TulliusCicero wrote: post #569
kls wrote: post #513

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Up until recently Dallas / Ft. Worth and Miami where conservative. The Cubans that fled communism held Miami as a conservative metro up until about 15-20 years ago. Orlando and Tampa where the same. Orlando for different reasons but Tampa was largely due to the conservative Cubans as well. Texas and Florida are two of the states that are experiencing meteoric growth and to imply that those moving in are not shifting…

The biggest thing in those states' favor is easily housing policy. They tend to permit much more sprawl, so housing prices in general, and especially the cost of a detached single family home stay more reasonable. Aside from Houston, they're still not great on allowing housing density though. Meanwhile, blue states have a "worst of both worlds" kind of policy. They don't permit much sprawl, and also don't permit much…

> Meanwhile, blue states have a "worst of both worlds" kind of policy. They don't permit much sprawl

Many states smaller (and less populated) than the expanse of sprawl in the LA basin. The only parts of CA that has much limit to sprawl are places with hard natural geographic barriers, like SF and the Peninsula.

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