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UAE to leave OPEC

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Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#561

Post by lpcvoid »

jmyeet wrote: post #329
bluGill wrote: post #177

OPEC has long been Saudi Arabia reducing output, and everyone else selling everything they can. They haven't had much power since the 1970s, but that they exist means they are a threat that if everyone else actually stuck to the agreement for a change. This is the common problem for cartels: everyone has inventive to cheat on the deals made. By selling a little more than your share you get more money, while because e…

I don't know where this idea that OPEC is toothless came from but it's objectively incorrect. Counter example: OPEC was the single largest factor in the inflation shock of 2020-2022. And nobody talks about it. In March 2020 at the start of the pandemic, it looked like the world economy would come to a standstill. Oil futures went into extreme contango, briefly going negative as nobody was taking delivery. So in April…

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Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#562

Post by b345 »

UltraSane wrote: post #521
huntertwo wrote: post #494

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even when Israel strikes first, someone else started it. Brilliant!

Iran has been using Hezbollah to attack Israel for over 30 years now. The explicit goal of Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas is the destruction of Israel.

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Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#563

Post by shykes »

huntertwo wrote: post #482
shykes wrote: post #470

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Israelis do not hate Egyptians... The Arab world has a major Jew-hatred problem, but the reverse it not true. Remember that 20% of the Israeli population is Arab.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_to_Arabs > Death to Arabs" or "Death to the Arabs" (Israeli Hebrew: מָוֶת לָעֲרָבִים, romanized: Mávet la'Aravím) is an anti-Arab slogan originating in Israel.

Your source documents a real phenomenon but doesn't support the universal claim that "Israelis hate Arabs". Please provide evidence proportional to the scope of your argument.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#564

Post by don_esteban »

rramadass wrote: post #549
don_esteban wrote: post #347

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1) any sources for 'is being ramped up significantly'? To what capacity? 2) how much are you willing to bet? :-) 3) selling them arms and then causing a conflict where they expend those arms is a protection racket, not a help 4) stating claims does not make them true. Is it in their interests for the oil prices to collapse? It is a classical prisoner's dilemma. Coordination helps all of them. Being on their own allow…

You can easily find out all the details you want if you had cared to do your own research from the links/data that i had given you using your favourite search engine+AI chatbot. Instead you are just repeating yourself and expecting to be spoon fed. Moreover you are just spouting your own fanciful opinions ("protection racket"/"oil prices collapse" etc. really?) which have no bearing on reality. However, for your edif…

I think we are talking past each other.

The increase in production capacity is irrelevant if you don't have a way to export the said production.

My question was specifically about the increase in the pipeline's capacity. Because your statement "As pointed out above Hormuz is being bypassed with ADCOP's capacity being ramped up." does not make sense otherwise.

Chatgpt tell me this this: Short term: increase ADCOP from ~1.5 → ~1.8–2.0 mb/d (confirmed and achievable) Medium term: expand storage and export infrastructure at Fujairah Long term: build additional pipelines/corridors alongside ADCOP

Short term is too small. Medium term does not help with the throughput, just better buffering. And the long term is, well, long term (= many, many years).

Why could something that might happen many years in the future force the Iran to open Hormuz now?

The thing is, 5-10 years from now the importance of oil will be greatly diminished, as this oil shock will result in much greater push for decarbonisation than all climate summits combined (and the technology -- mostly solar and long distance DC lines - is essentially ready, at a reasonable cost). The gulf states see this, so I am not 100% sure all those pushes for extra pipelines will come to fruition, once the Iran war cools down.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#565

Post by inemesitaffia »

Reason077 wrote: post #452
markdown wrote: post #448

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While true, that doesn't really factor into this given that that market is so small that they don't lose anything by banning things that aren't compatible with their values. So no, they most definitely can have their cake and eat it, and have done so for over two decades.

Emirates is one of the world’s largest airlines, and in many parts of the world Dubai offers the best and most frequent air connections between various cities. So while UAE itself may be a small market, it’s quite a major transit route. They also turn a blind eye to plenty of other things that go against conservative islamic values: alcohol is served onboard, gay flight attendants are employed, etc. So it’s surprisin…

You always choose where to draw your lines.

It may be confusing to others but it's ultimately your choice.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#566

Post by defrost »

ameen wrote: post #550
defrost wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My bad, it's late in the evening here and I typed something that works when spoken with emphasis and timing (at least in my head). I added quotes, it should say that Pakistan's weapons program is one that is outside the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as Pakistan is not a party to it.

We all know Israel isn’t party to it either.

Nor India, nor South Sudan. North Korea was, but didn't comply and then went backsies.

Of the four never did non signatories, South Sudan is not like the others (wrt one metric at least).

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#567

Post by don_esteban »

cjblomqvist wrote: post #362
don_esteban wrote: post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is making great strides in renewables and investing in nuclear (and in electrification of transport). It can be energy independent in not too distant future. India has geography for solar, and the human/industrial capability for nuclear. Southern Europe can go solar as well. Northern Europe has it tougher (except Norway, with its abundant hydro). Nuclear could work. Or long range DC cables from South Europe or…

Northern Europe, at least Scandinavia, is already at 90%+ non carbon electricity generation. (88-100%) Central and Eastern Europe have it tougher.

Central/Eastern Europe is rather into nuclear (Austria on renewables) and not too heavy on fossil, exceptions being Poland/Czechs/Germany with too much coal.

The Balkans are quite fossil-heavy, but solar should be quite feasible there.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#568

Post by sysguest »

watwut wrote: post #552
sysguest wrote: post #543

Earlier quoted context omitted.

well where do YOU draw the line then? One side openly tries to do maximum death on everyone including infants (eg. fire random missiles, intifada, and the oct 7th attack) The other side at least tried their best NOT to attack back (expensive missile defense systems) or at least kill only the militants selectively (walkietalkie boomboom) I mean, you should be ashamed of even comparing israel vs iran/hamas/etc

> One side openly tries to do maximum death on everyone including infants That would be israel with special focus on journalists and doctors > The other side at least tried their best NOT to attack back As idiotic as it is, Iran shown more restraint then Israel and USA against other countries. Internaly not, but ouyside yes. They played tit for tat.

> Iran shown more restraint then Israel and USA against other countries > They played tit for tat.

like... firing missiles at UAE...? launching drone to dubai tower?

did India do anything to iran to get its ships fired upon?

blocking hormuz strait... that alone was enough to trigger global coalition -- though due to Trump's trade dick move to allies... no one sent troops...

if it's "tit for tat", then why does iran make so many un-related countries suffer (eg india?)

well simple: iran is the new pirate of 21st century. nothing more or less.

if anyone says "that's because US attacked", then if I got hit by a car, can I have my revenge on nearby pedestrians?

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#569

Post by throwaway2037 »

cman1444 wrote: post #404
0xbadcafebee wrote: post #378

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not that the petrodollar is doomed, it's just 'devaluing'. The US isn't a stable, safe place for cash anymore. But the world still needs massive amounts of safe cash. So there really is only one alternative: diversify. They'll diversity into Gold, rare-earth metals (they're only getting more important), CIPS, Yuan, Euro. That diversification helps everyone else, but will hurt the US, which hurts financial market…

To be honest this comment kind of reads like anti-US fanfiction. >That diversification helps everyone else, but will hurt the US, which hurts financial markets, and thus everyone else. These are huge jumps in logic, I'm not even sure where to begin. I guess the most glaring question is: If other countries are actively diversifying from US assets as you claim, why would they still be so hurt by a US financial market d…

I too laughed when I read the response. If anything, the more bat shit crazy the response, the more it validates my original point.

    > To be honest this comment kind of reads like anti-US fanfiction.
You said it better than I could. The best analogy I could dream up: This post feels like it was written as an editorial for an anti-US newspaper, like The Global Times.

About the weak diversification argument: If people really do invest much less into US assets, then other available high quality assets will also become more expensive and result in lower yields. In turn, the US assets will appear "cheap" and attract new capital. This feels like a mirror of the global soybean trade. If China says they won't buy US soybeans (primary used to feed hogs), but buy Canadian or Brazilian, then other buyers just shift where they buy from. In the end, the global demand for soybeans has not fallen, rather a brief game of musical chairs was played.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#570

Post by bigfatkitten »

ajross wrote: post #540
jmyeet wrote: post #532

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's more complex than that. Saudi Arabia has the East-West Pipeline [1] that takes ~7Mbpd (million barrels per day) of oil to Red Sea ports to avoid the Strait of Hormuz. They were already using it so there's not a lot of extra capacity they can get out. If we continue up the escalation ladder, the next big risk is that the Houthis close Bab al-Mandab, which is a not-quite-as-narrow but still vulnerable chokepoint t…

> Asian countries in particular are going to burn They won't sit still, though. Eventually, if this were tried, we'd see Chinese-flagged tankers buying passage rights from Iran and being escorted by PLAN ships. No way does Commander TACO take that shot. The US interdiction threat in the gulf is empty, and everyone know it. Iran gets paid at the end of every story. The whole boondoggle has been a failure for the US in…

I suspect USN commanders have been ordered to leave Chinese flagged tankers well alone, even in the absence of a PLAN escort.
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