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Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

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Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#561

Post by pjc50 »

NooneAtAll3 wrote: post #169
pjc50 wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We could learn from our allies in Ukraine. Give them capital and manufacturing bases in America I think the Ukranians are still unimpressed with the withdrawal of US support, especially from the shells which were being manufactured in the US (now moved to Rheinmetall), and the de-sanctioning of Russian oil: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cm2871wyz9ko

Ukrainians are unimpressed that US no longer supports war to exhaustion. US in unimpressed that Ukraine supported other side in elections Problem is that US wants to distance itself instead of ending the conflict

US doesn't actually have a way to end the Ukraine war. It doesn't have a way to end the Iran war either. Other than unconditional surrender.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#562

Post by mattmanser »

Animats wrote: post #426

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. Expecting to win a war on the cheap was a fantasy. Especially since Iran has been fighting Israel for years. On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. That finally made it u…

Just to note, Germany has 83 million people, so not 2x Germany.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#563

Post by tobyhinloopen »

citrin_ru wrote: post #552
Animats wrote: post #426

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. Expecting to win a war on the cheap was a fantasy. Especially since Iran has been fighting Israel for years. On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. That finally made it u…

> Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine Population size is relevant but not the most important factor. Russia has 146,000,000, more than 4x than Ukraine. It doesn't guarantee that Russia will win the war. > On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. Ukraine also had Bayraktar TB2 overhead which distracted Moskva's crew and provided targeting information. Russia probably…

Russia is the aggressor, Iran is a defender. That’s a huge difference.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#564

Post by ozim »

integricho wrote: post #535
asa400 wrote: post #438

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Worst outcome is the US attacks Cuba, Cuba allies with Iran, it turns out that Cuba has been stocking up on Iranian drones, and Cuba becomes a forward base for drone and missile attacks on the southern US. If this happens and Cuba decides to launch drones/missiles against the US homeland, it's not an exaggeration to say that Cuba is flattened and invaded that same afternoon. After 9/11, there's no world in which an…

It is so rich hearing that America can attack anybody, but godforbid an attack on the "homeland" is an unforgivable act that will invoke nukes immediately.

It is so rich you assume an account created in 2013 having no karma is indeed American.

Don’t forget this is the internet where 12 year old girls turn out to be 40 yo men.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#565

Post by argsnd »

cladopa wrote: post #197
hn_throw2025 wrote: post #125

“during WWII, the US Navy… winning the U-boat war in the Atlantic” Sounds like typical US revisionist history. They developed ASDIC? HF/DF? Hedgehog? Even the depth charge? No, that was all the British. I would say technological development plus the Enigma decrypts were the biggest factor.

>No, that was all the British. And not even British. For example most of the Enigma decryption was the genius work of a Polish man. Britain received the immigration of half the Nobel prices of the world in a couple years as the jews escaped nazism.

The technologies listed aside from the Enigma were largely actually British (I say largely because Canadians were deeply involved in some cases)

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#566

Post by sveme »

Animats wrote: post #426

A big mistake here was simply underestimating the scale of Iran. Iran has 90,000,000 people. More than 2x Ukraine. More than 2x Germany. More than 2x Iraq. More than any country in Europe. About 2/3 of Russia. Expecting to win a war on the cheap was a fantasy. Especially since Iran has been fighting Israel for years. On the naval front, Ukraine sunk the Moskva with a few truck-mounted missiles. That finally made it u…

Sorry, irrelevant to what you‘re saying, but Germany has 85 mio inhabitants. You might mistake it for Poland.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#567

Post by [deleted] »

dyauspitr wrote: post #480

I haven’t read the article but what exactly are you going to blast? You can fire the Shahed drone from the back of a pick up truck. They could be scattered all over the country they’re cheap as hell to make and they could pump out hundreds of thousands of them.

[deleted]

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#568

Post by watwut »

coderenegade wrote: post #344
PunchyHamster wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> is not really backed up by reality. Pretty much the whole US operation so far, destroying much of Iran's military and leadership was done from US carriers. If anything it demonstrates how powerful they are. The country with 0.3% of global spending in military is putting a noticeable dent in assets of country that has 35% of global spending in military and are begging allies for help coz they can't even stop the dro…

The issues the US faces are political and humanitarian (and economic) rather than military. I don't see any compelling evidence that the US couldn't open the straits if it really wanted to, it's just that the cost in lives and hardware would be unlike anything the US has seen since Vietnam, maybe even the second world war. And of course, once you open the strait, you have to keep it open. The whole thing is a lose-lo…

> I don't see any compelling evidence that the US couldn't open the straits if it really wanted to, it's just that the cost in lives and hardware would be unlike anything the US has seen since Vietnam, maybe even the second world war.

The second half of that sentence is literally explaining why the "impossible" you reject in the first part.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#569

Post by tommica »

alsetmusic wrote: post #477
IlikeMadison wrote: post #436

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Germany has 80+ mil inhabitants. Also 90,000,000 people doesn't mean 90,000,000 soldiers, especially when a large part of them hate their own regime.

> Also 90,000,000 people doesn't mean 90,000,000 soldiers, especially when a large part of them hate their own regime. You know what engenders nationalism? Attack on your way of life and the murder of someone you know by said attack.

If my countrymen were killed by my government by the thousands, I'd not be super happy about defending that government.

If the enemy does the same kind of mindless killing to the civilians, then I would have different ideas.

Re: Why the US Navy won't blast the Iranians and 'open' Strait of Hormuz

#570

Post by bradley13 »

Cheap airborne weapons have irreversibly changed warfare. IIRC a Patriot missile costs something like $4 million. Using them to shoot down $50k Shahed drone is a losing proposition. That's not only because of the price, but because the drones can be produced a lot faster. Even Iran's ballistic missiles are a lot cheaper and faster to produce than any defense system that can reliably destroy them.
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